090
FXUS62 KCHS 132127
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
527 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the region this week. A dry cold
front will drop south through the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Southern, and increasingly dominate, aspect of bi-model low
offshore will continue to pull away from the SC coast overnight
as drier low level air filters eastward from the upstate and
piedmont. Clear skies current along the Altamaha region and
inland GA will continue to advance northward, with SE GA mostly
clear by late afternoon, the the Lowcountry clearing through the
evening. While a few strips of clouds could linger into the
overnight hours, radiational cooling as the BL gradient wanes
will allow temps to fall into the mid-to-upper 50s away from the
beaches tonight. The greatest forecast challenge will be fog.
There is most likely enough mixing above the surface to abate
fog formation given the lack of upper subsidence, but with so
much ground moisture in place, especially along the coast from
Savannah northward, there may at least be patchy fog developing
in sheltered areas late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A upper-lvl ridge will maintain control of the forecast through
the rest of the week, promoting dry and stable weather with
decent radiational cooling at night. The drier mid-lvls and
subsidence will hinder convection and promote mostly clear
skies. A weak seabreeze will still be prevalent in the
afternoons, but with limited moisture and no meaningful forcing,
precipitation chances will remain near zero. A cold, dry front
will pass through the region on Wednesday night, introducing
weak cold air advection and a drier continental air mass. This
will likely drop the temperatures a bit and cause for a subtle
wind shift, but not much else. Post- frontal conditions will
feature lower dewpoints and a pleasant slightly cooler day under
clear skies on Thursday. Temperatures will run slightly above
normal with highs reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s on
Tuesday through Wednesday, with Thursday being a few degrees
cooler due to post FROPA. Expect overnight lows to fall into the
low to mid-50s inland, with low 60s near the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The post-frontal airmass will continue to dominate the forecast
into the weekend, yielding dry and stable conditions with
minimal precipitation chances. Temperatures will stay on cooler
side on Friday with highs ranging in the low to mid 70s across
SE South Carolina and mid to upper 70s across SE Georgia.
Thereafter, temperatures make a rebound and climb back up into
the upper 70s to low 80s over the weekend. Expect overnight lows
to range on the cooler side with temperates dropping into the
low to mid 50s inland, and low 60s along the coast. It`s
important to note that there is potential for some spots across
inland SE South Carolina to drop into the upper 40s on overnight
on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
14/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail through 15/00z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The gradient continues to diminish overnight as low
pulls away to the northeast and weak high pressure builds in
from the west. Northerly windswell keeps sea around 2-4 ft
overnight as longer period SE swell diminishes.

Tuesday through Friday: As high pressure continues to build
down from the northwest, north-northwasterly winds will prevail
at 10 to 15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts possible on Tuesday.
Ahead of a advancing dry, cold front on Wednesday, winds will
veer north- northeasterly and increase to 15 to 20 kts with
gusts up to 22-23 kts across the nearshore waters and 24-26 kts
across the outer Georgia waters. In response, the pressure
gradient will become pinched between the building high across
the eastern CONUS and a deepening low in the middle of the
Atlantic. Elevated winds will remain through Thursday night due
to post-frontal conditions. Expect winds to ease on Friday as
the ridging starts to break down. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft on
Tuesday, and then build up to 4 to 6 ft (with some 7 footers
encroaching into the outer Georgia waters). Small Craft
Advisories might be needed for AMZ350 and AMZ374 given the
elevated seas and winds beginning on Tuesday night.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$