237
FXUS62 KCHS 111740
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
140 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Coastal low pressure will linger through Sunday before shifting
northeast while high pressure remains inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-afternoon update will be issued once the current set of
Coastal Flood products expire.

Early afternoon satellite and surface observations show
deepening low pressure was located about 200 NM east/southeast
of the Savannah River Entrance. KCLX shows widespread light to
locally moderate rains spreading across the South Carolina
Lowcountry and quickly trailing off south of the Savannah River.
The low will continue deepen as it moves north tonight, likely
reaching the North Carolina coast by daybreak Sunday. The region
will remain within the warm conveyor/deformation zone of the
upper through much of tonight, which will keep some degree of
shower activity in place with the greatest coverage occurring
over the Charleston Tri-County. Pops ranging from 80-100%
tapering to 20-50% across Southeast Georgia were highlighted
through tonight. Lows will range from the upper 50s/lower 60s
inland to the mid 60s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The deep closed upper low over southern Georgia will transition
to an open trough late Sunday, then gradually lift ENE through
Monday. The associated surface low will move to a position just
off the NC Outer Banks by Sunday afternoon. Continued moist
isentropic ascent will maintain overcast skies and occasional
light to moderate rain through Sunday afternoon. Cold air
advection will keep temps well below normal.

Drier air and subsidence as an upper ridge builds east should
finally scour out the clouds and precip by late Sunday night.
Monday and Tuesday should be dry with decreasing cloudiness.
Temps will rise several degrees each day, but likely remain a
bit below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep layered ridging will maintain dry conditions and moderate
temperatures a couple degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
11/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI: Light rain with IFR cigs will persist at both
terminals through Sunday morning. Gusty winds will linger as
well.

KSAV: IFR cigs may briefly give way to MVFR cigs by late
afternoon/early evening, then should drop back into IFR after
sunset. These conditions will linger through the night. Cigs
will begin to improve by mid-late morning as clearing tries to
move in from the south.

Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR or lower ceilings likely to
persist into Sunday evening/night before returning to VFR. Gusty
NE winds expected on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight: Northerly winds of 25-30 kt with gusts to
35-40 kt will persist tonight as low pressure passes east of the
coastal waters. Gale Warnings remain in place for all legs,
except Charleston Harbor were a Small Craft Advisory for wind
20-25 kt was maintained. Seas will max out early this evening,
ranging from 5-11 ft nearshore waters and 10-13 ft over the
Georgia offshore waters.

Monday through Thursday: Gusty NE winds will continue on
Sunday, though speeds should start to decrease as the coastal
low moves northeast and the gradient begins to relax. Marine
headlines could persist as long as Monday night for wind gusts
and/or seas.

Rip Currents: Strong northeast winds and steep seas will
support a High Risk of rip currents at all beaches through
Sunday.

High Surf: Offshore winds will limit the surf potential along
the beaches through tonight. NWPS breaking wave guidance has
been running a tad too high especially when compared to coastal
webcams this afternoon. The risk for breakers of 5+ look
greatest along the Charleston County beaches, so the High Surf
Advisory has been cancelled for all but Charleston County.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The risk for additional coastal flooding will continue for
coastal portions of Charleston and Colleton Counties for high
tide Sunday afternoon. Levels there are expected to peak in the
upper range of the minor flood stage (7.3-7.5 ft MLLW). A
Coastal Flood Advisory is likely. Tides at Fort Pulaski are
expected to peak just below the minor flood stage of 9.5 ft
MLLW, however it could be close.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for
     SCZ048-051-052.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for SCZ048>051.
     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ045.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ049-
     050.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ330.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ350-374.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ352-354.

&&

$$