722
FXUS62 KCHS 070909
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
409 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will linger over the region today,
while Hurricane Rafael treks into the Gulf of Mexico. High
pressure will return over the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Overnight composite analysis reveals an upper level ridge
across Florida and the southeast U.S. and into the Atlantic
with an upper jet axis that arcs from eastern Texas to the mid
Atlantic. Upper level divergence bullseye with jet is currently
progressing up through southeast South Carolina, coincident
with where the most persistent and heavier rain is currently
falling.

Meanwhile, plume of tropical moisture with PWAT values 2 to 2.5
inches remains draped across the southeast region. Surface
trough is noted from the eastern Gulf across northern Florida
and into southeast Georgia and South Carolina, roughly from
Allendale to Statesboro to Reidsville. Weak surface low and
possible remnant MCV from an earlier cluster of convection is
migrating through southeast Georgia and there is a secondary
batch of heavier rain advancing toward the southwest counties.

Still have several more hours of heavier rain to get through.
Jet induced upper divergence max will continue to progress
through eastern South Carolina through the morning hours before
weakening substantially during the afternoon. Thus we should see
a decreasing trend in precip during the afternoon. However,
aforementioned surface trough axis remains somewhat fixed
throughout the day, and might continue to trigger additional
showers/thunder through the day, particularly across southeast
Georgia where some degree of instability will be found. All
told, the forecast will continue to advertise categorical pops
through the morning hours with decreasing pops this afternoon
into tonight.

Precip-wise: Axis of greatest rainfall thus far extends from
Calhoun and Orangeburg counties, down through Allendale/Screven
and Bulloch counties, where 4 to 7 inches has fallen per MRMS
QPE. Another 1 to 3 inches is certainly possible today with all
guidance sources showing the higher amounts across those same
areas. Thus, plan to keep the flood watch intact as-is and hoist
Flood Advisories as the need arises.

Otherwise, unseasonably warm and humid conditions persist with
highs today in the mid to upper 70s and lows tonight in the mid
to upper 60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aloft ridging will build into the region from the south through the
weekend. At the surface a weak cold front, previously stalled in the
vicinity of the forecast area, will push to the south with high
pressure building in behind it. A few isolated showers will be
possible on Friday as enhanced moisture lingers and the front
remains close enough to provide some forcing. The rest of the
weekend looks to remain rain-free. The main forecast story of the
period is the above normal temperatures, with daytime highs reaching
into the upper 70s to around 80 and overnight lows only dipping into
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Zonal flow is forecast to develop aloft early next week. However,
there is some model disagreement in the pattern through the middle
of the week. A shortwave trough could ripple through along the zonal
flow, however the timing and placement of this feature is not
consistent between models. At the surface high pressure will
dominate until a cold front pushes through the region, associated
with the aforementioned shortwave trough. Forecast details in this
period are rather uncertain given the model disagreement, so the
current forecast only features some isolated showers possible Sunday
night into Monday, but these details could change. Temperatures will
remain well above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHS/JZI: VFR conditions continue to hold on for the time being.
But steadier rains will be spreading into the terminals
overnight with conditions eventually becoming MVFR by the
morning push. Rain and MVFR conditions will then likely persist
through the day Thursday before diminishing Thursday night.

SAV: Showers (potentially a few thunderstorms) will impact the
terminal with MVFR cigs/vsbys during the overnight hours and
persisting through a good portion of Thursday. Brief periods of
IFR cigs/vsbys are possible with moderate/heavy showers. Expect
shower activity to diminish late afternoon and early evening,
but MVFR cigs are likely to continue through 06Z Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Low cigs could linger into Friday,
otherwise prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Elevated seas are slowly diminishing...below 6 feet now across
the nearshore waters and Small Craft Advisories for those

Friday through Monday: High pressure will build into the region
through the weekend. Wind gusts are forecast to surge on Saturday
afternoon as the high pressure builds in from the north, with NE
winds gusting to around 25 knots. Small Craft Advisories may be
required for most of the marine waters. Seas also are forecast to
build to 4 to 6 ft across the nearshore waters, with 5 to 7 ft
across the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. Seas and winds should
return to below Small Craft Advisory criteria by Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 7:
KCHS: 68/2018
KCXM: 70/2003
KSAV: 69/2020

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ087-088-099>101-114-
     115.
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ040-042-043-047.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...Adam/CPM
MARINE...Adam/CPM