294
FXUS61 KCAR 081821
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
121 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The region will remain between low pressure to the northeast
and high pressure to the west through Friday. A weak trough of
low pressure crosses the area Saturday, with the region then on
the west side of a strong area of low pressure in the Canadian
Maritimes early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1:05PM Update...Increased precipitation across the Downeast
region as snow begins to fall. Not anticipating large
accumulations at this point, with most areas in the south seeing
maybe half an inch to an inch between this afternoon into
tonight. Winds continue to gust good throughout our forecast
region, so included blowing snow throughout the north for the
rest of the near term period for this update. Visibilities get
reduced due to the areas of blowing snow, so exercise caution in
open areas. Adjusted temperatures down to match observations.
Cloud cover increases over the entire area. Forecast otherwise
on track.

previous discussion
Upper level low pressure remains across the Canadian Maritimes
through tonight. The circulation around this system will result
in a another mainly cloudy day. Warmer air aloft and
disturbances wrapping southward around the system will continue
to result in occasional light snow through tonight. The best
chances for snow will be mainly from the Katahdin region on
northward, where an inch or two of snowfall is possible today,
with another inch or so possible tonight. Expect mainly cloudy
skies and scattered snow showers for the Bangor region and
Downeast Maine through tonight, with little in the way of
accumulation expected there. Afternoon highs today will
generally range from the lower to mid 20s. Lows tonight will
range from the mid teens, but only around 20 degrees across the
crown of Maine where more in the way of cloud cover is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cyclonic flow continues over the area through the end of the week as
low remains stuck over the Canadian Maritimes. During the day on
Thursday sfc low retrogrades from the North Atlantic back toward
Newfoundland/Labrador while sfc high remains over the Great Lakes.
This will increase the pressure gradient acrs the CWA with NW winds
ocnly gusting to 30-40 mph over the higher terrain and downwind of
lakes and agricultural areas. These winds likely to bring blowing
snow acrs the north on Thursday.

Given the track record of NBM winds having a low bias over land,
blended in CONSHORT and blended in the 75th percentile for Thursday
afternoon and again on Friday morning. Given the upr low flinging
s/wvs twd the area have continued with chc snow showers acrs the
north with snow amounts ranging from 0.5-1 inch north of Katahdin on
Thursday.

Thursday night will see upr ridge slowly pushing twd the area with
snow showers diminishing acrs the north. Atmosphere remains well-
mixed under tight pressure gradient with nw winds still gusting to
25-30 mph.

As high builds into the area Friday afternoon and Friday night winds
will begin to relax first, over western areas in the evening and
eventually over entire CWA after midnight Friday night.

Temperatures throughout the period will remain well above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging likely to be controlling the area/s wx Saturday morning
before longwave trof approaches from the west. At the same time srn
stream wave will be ejecting off of the mid-Atlantic coast with
deterministic runs and most of the ensemble members keeping sfc low
well to the south of the Gulf of Maine, with an eventual track
south of Nova Scotia.

However, cannot rule out a quick inch of two of snow Saturday
evening and during the nighttime hours with possible NORLUN trough
developing across the area. Have indicated stratiform snow as
opposed to snow showers for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Brief ridging expected again late in the weekend into early next
week. Guidance and ensembles are hinting at a clipper approaching
the area toward the very end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL...MVFR/IFR conditions expected at times
through tonight due to light snow and low cloud ceilings. Gusty
winds are causing blowing snow in northern terminals, which is
also reducing visibilities. Gusty winds are expected throughout
the near term period.

KBGR/KBHB...VFR with occasional MVFR in scattered snow showers
through tonight. Gusty winds are expected throughout the near
term period.

LLWS possible in surrounding areas for all terminals.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...MVFR in -shsn mainly over Aroostook terminals with VFR
Downeast. NW 10-20kts gusting to 25-30kts. LLWS possible.

Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR. NW 10-20kts gusting to 25-30kts.
LLWS possible Thursday night.

Friday night...VFR. NW 5-10kts becoming light late.

Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR, possible IFR in light snow. N 5-
10kts.

Sunday...Improving to VFR with MVFR cigs possible over northern
terminals. NW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning is now in effect for the outer waters
through tonight with a Small Craft Advisory for the intra
coastal zone. Light freezing spray will be a concern through
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Gales possible over the outer waters on Thursday
through Friday morning. Small craft level winds likely over the
intracoastal zone, though could see a few gusts to 35kts
Thursday afternoon and evening. Conditions diminish to SCA into
Friday evening before dropping below small craft levels through
Saturday. May see winds increase toward 25kts over the outer
waters on Sunday with seas remaining below 5ft from Friday
morning through the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Brennan/TWD/Buster
Marine...Brennan/TWD/Buster