219
FXUS61 KCAR 092328
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
628 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south of the area tonight. A warm
front approaches Sunday night and passes through on Monday,
followed by a cold front on Tuesday. High pressure returns on
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
625 pm update...Skies have cleared and winds continue to slowly
diminish. High pressure builds well south to the area, so do
not expect winds to diminish enough to warrant any reductions in
lows tonight. Warming southwest winds will be in place Sunday
as high temps are around 10F warmer than today.

Previous discussion...
A few flurries will continue acrs the northeast this afternoon
and have added those into the fcst. High pressure will slowly
build in from the west with winds dropping off this evening.
With clear skies and fairly light winds temps look to drop below
frzg everywhere, with most locations in the lower 20s.

High moves offshore to our south in the morning with winds
backing around from the southwest. Sunny to mostly sunny skies
will see clouds increase from the west as the last vestiges of
the sun shines tomorrow. This will be enough to boost temps
toward 50 degrees tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will continue to drift southeast and out into
the open atlantic Sunday night in advance of the next upstream short
wave. The flow becomes more south to southwest with time late Sunday
night with weak warm advection in the 850 to 700 MB layer. Expect
increasing clouds Sunday evening. Some light rain is likely well
after midnight for the Bangor region and Downeast. Across the
far north, it will take longer for the low levels to moisten up,
thus it will likley remain precipitation free much of Sunday
night for Northeast Aroostook county.

Short wave exits east later Monday morning, with weak surface low
tracking to our north north. Expect a continue chance for rain
across the north but decreasing chances for Bangor and Downeast.
Afternoon highs on Monday range from the low to mid 40s north
and mid to upper 50s for Bangor and Downeast.

Monday night the next upstream trof approaches from the west with a
cold front crossing the region late. Expect the chance for showers,
especially across northern areas.

Tuesday will be turning colder and it will be blustery. The cold
advection in the wake of the front may result in scatterd snow
showers or flurries across northern areas. The bigger story
will be the increasingly gusty northwest winds with the
tightening pressure gradient between low pressure exiting across
the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure to the west. Gusts as
high as 35 to 40 mph are possible, especially across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds toward the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Expect a gusty northwest wind to continue Tuesday night
with the surface ridge axis still off to the west. Lows Tuesday
night are expected to be in the low to mid 20s with a north to
northwest breeze making it feel even colder.

A dry and mainly sunny day is expected on Wednesday with
diminishing winds. Mainly clear skies Wednesday evening will be
followed by increasing late night clouds. Lows Wednesday night
will fall into the upper teens across the north and lower 20s
for Bangor and Downeast. Thursday through Saturday, still some
uncertainty, but it appears high pressure may be the dominant
feature into next weekend.

Afternoon highs will generally be a bit below normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
624 pm update...VFR through the period with no cigs less than 5K
ft and excellent vis. No reductions in cig/vis until late Sunday
night. LLWS is expected Sunday morning with west winds around 30
to 40 kt around FL020.

NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Gusty winds will come to an end by
22z, become light and variable overnight and then become light
out of the southwest on Sunday. Cannot rule out a mid deck of
clouds moving through northern Aroostook terminals late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Sun night through Mon...VFR through midnight,
then MVFR/IFR in light rain.

Mon night...MVFR. Scattered rain showers.

Tue through Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR. Scattered snow/rain showers.
NW wind gust to 40 kt possible.

Wed through Thu...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
624 pm update...Ended SCA for intracoastal waters off the
Hancock County coast. Winds further offshore warrant
continuation of the SCA for several more hours.

NEAR TERM: Winds have diminished below gale force and have
issued an SCA as winds will gust to 30kts on the intracoastals
into this evening and remain elevated over the outer waters
tonight. Expect winds diminish below small craft levels before
midnight. Marginal southwest winds will pick up again tomorrow
afternoon over the outer waters but confidence is low. Seas
drop below 5ft this evening and remain between 1 to 3 feet
tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas may approach SCA conditions in the SW flow
Sunday night and Monday. There is an even better threat of SCA
conditions, possibly even gales, Tuesday and Tuesday night in
the NW flow behind a cold front.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Buster/TWD
Marine...Buster/TWD