722
FXUS61 KCAR 180245
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
945 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds into the area through tonight. A
weak cold front crosses the area Monday, with its supporting
upper level system exiting to the east Monday night. Weak high
pressure builds in Tuesday through Wednesday. A storm system
approaches from the southwest Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Update...
Satellite shows low cloud deck along the Maine/New Brunswick
border with high and mid cloud advancing in from the west.
Expect mainly cloudy skies overnight with the approach of the
next upper disturbance from Quebec. Temperatures across portions
of the north Maine Woods have already reached previously
forecast lows in a few spots. But should not fall all that much
more with the increasing cloud cover. Lows should generally
range from the low to mid 30s across much of the region by
morning.

previous discussion
Surface high over the southeast US has ridge extending up into srn
Quebec this afternoon. Northerly winds at the sfc has allowed clouds
to remain acrs the east as moisture has been trapped under the
inversion all day and expect this will continue tonight. Upr low
over southern Ontario will spread a mid-deck acrs the CWA later this
evening. At the same time sfc low will cross James Bay tonight and
drag an occluded front twd the area.

Regional radar shows very light echoes moving into southern Quebec
attm. Dry air mid-layers will likely preclude any precip from
reaching the sfc until closer to daybreak. Min temps will drop below
frzg acrs the northwest and near frzg over central areas to abv
freezing over Downeast.

As upr low approaches the area in the morning, may see snow showers
acrs the northwest initially with perhaps a dusting of snow in the
morning. As the upr low and associated cold pool moves thru the area
with likely pops expected acrs the northeast in the aftn. This also
is located in conjunction with the upr lvl jet passing thru New
England. Cannot rule out a brief burst of heavy rain and/or snow
over the St. John Valley. This will depend on temps, both at the sfc
and aloft. Accumulating snow in the afternoon looks unlikely at this
time but cannot be ruled out. If this does occur it will mainly be
on grassy surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure begins to build into the area Monday
night through the middle of the week as the previous low
pressure slowly shifts eastward. A few rain showers, mixing with
some snow in the north, are possible overnight Monday night
before precip exits the region through the rest of the short
term. The departing low will deepen near eastern Nova Scotia,
which will tighten the pressure gradient back into our forecast
area, leading to breezy winds through Tuesday. As the ridge of
high pressure begins to build in, temperatures will begin to
rebound and be mild with highs in the mid to upper 40s across
the north, and lower 50s closer to the coast each day.
Overnight, persistent cloud cover and breezy winds will prevent
surface decoupling each night, resulting in mild low
temperatures around the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The ridge of high pressure will begin to shift eastward Thursday
as the next system approaches from the west. An occluded low
will begin to lift into the St. Lawrence valley from the Great
Lakes Region, while a triple point low develops along the New
England coast. This triple point low will deepen over northern
New England through the day on Friday, bringing the next round
of precipitation into the forecast area. There is good
consistency among ensemble plots in the existence and track of
this low. Winds may increase as the low strengthens, but
currently are forecast to become breezy through the day on
Friday before tapering off on the back side of the low. Precip
type is currently forecast to be rain, due to plenty of
unseasonably warm air ahead of the system and lack of deep cold
air behind the system.

There could be a few snow showers on the back side of the low as
the low moves off northeast of the CWA Saturday into Sunday.
That said, temperatures could struggle to drop off quickly, and
the greatest chance for snow remains in the higher terrain of
the North Woods.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR cigs expected at the Aroostook terminals thru
Monday morning, then remaining VFR/MVFR during Monday afternoon.
Scattered rain/snow shower possible. VFR for KBGR/KBHB through
Monday. Downeast terminals. N wind 10 to 15 kt through Monday.

SHORT TERM:

Mon night - Wed night: MVFR across northern terminals with VFR
Downeast. Rain mixed with snow showers possible early from PQI
northwards Monday night. NW winds 5 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to
25 kts Tues afternoon, shifting N and decreasing through Wed.

Thurs - Fri: Cigs falling to MVFR/IFR across the entire forecast
area as the next storm approaches from the west, with steady RA
moving in from west to east, reducing vis at times as well.
Winds NE to E 5 to 15 kts with gusts increasing 20 to 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels
tonight and Monday under building high pressure, although a few
gusts up to 25 kt possible across the outer waters overnight.

SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory is in place beginning 7 PM
Monday as winds increase 25 to 30 kts. Winds will gradually
decrease Tuesday night, and seas remain around 3 to 4 ft.
Another low pressure will approach Thursday into Friday, which
may be the next time that winds increase over 25 kts,
accompanied by seas 6 to 8 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/TWD
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Buster/TWD/AStrauser
Marine...Buster/TWD/AStrauser