423
FXUS61 KCAR 061325
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
925 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit to the east today. An upper trough will dig
to our west tonight and Monday. Low pressure will develop over the
area Tuesday and continue into the Maritimes Tuesday night. High
pressure will build south of the area Wednesday. Low pressure will
approach on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
925AM Update: The snow and mixing precip have either switched
to rain or moved out of the area. Cannot rule out a possible
rain shower this morning with the lingering moisture.
Instability is still expected to increase this afternoon, so
eyes will be on any plumes coming off the St Lawrence later
today. No major changes to the forecast for this update.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure in northern Quebec will drag an occlusion through
the area this morning. An upper trough swinging southeastward
out of Ontario is enhancing lift early this morning with snow
north and rain in the southern half of the forecast area. The
front will move quickly out of the area this morning with
precipitation ending.

Wet snow has persisted in much of Aroostook County as a warm
nose aloft eroded and a near isothermal profile emerged up
towards H7. As a result, increased snow amounts...mostly in NE
Aroostook County. Have also left the ongoing Winter Weather
Advisory in place through 6 am.

Low level moisture is creating extensive low clouds and areas of
fog this morning with the occlusion. The rain and snow quickly
exits the area this morning and a drier westerly flow will
gradually lift the low clouds and fog by midday. As the
inversion breaks, the mild air left in place behind the
occlusion will help propel high temperatures into the 40s
today...and even a few 50F readings in the Bangor area.

A secondary front much cooler and drier air moves across the
area this afternoon with much cooler and drier air. This front
may spark a few instability showers in Aroostook County with up
to 100 J/kg of SBCAPE.

Cold air advection tonight will result in lows dropping into the
20s for most of the area with readings near 30F towards Bangor
and the coast. Clearing skies and these falling temperatures
will cause moisture to refreeze tonight with some slick roads
possible, mostly in northern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough of low pressure will be digging south from Hudson
Bay on Monday, approaching a subtropical boundary draped from the
Southeast region up across the Mid-Atlantic states. Weak high
pressure across our area will bring a partly sunny day over the
north Monday while Downeast areas remain mostly cloudy nearer to the
offshore boundary.

A small low will begin to develop to our west Monday night supported
by the trough digging south from Hudson Bay. This low will slowly
intensify and pivot across the area on Tuesday. As it does, the
combination of convergence in the surface low and dynamic lift from
the digging trough will develop an area of snow across the region.
Boundary layer temperatures will be cold so all snow is expected
with this event. This appears to be a small but strong low with the
potential to bring a localized area of moderate to heavy snow.
Most of the model guidance favors the north. However, the new
ECMWF coming in overnight is tracking the low further south and
developing an inverted trough that could concentrate the highest
amounts Downeast.

The low will exit to the east Tuesday night. As it does, an inverted
trough extending back westward from the low may sustain a bit more
snowfall over eastern parts of the area through the evening,
tapering off overnight. An increasing northwesterly wind behind the
low may create some patchy blowing snow across open areas of the
north.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will build to our south on Wednesday as the upper
trough across our region weakens and lifts out to the northeast.
This will bring a sunny to partly cloudy sky over the south with a
partly to mostly cloudy sky over the north. High pressure to our
south, pivoting up across our region, will bring a mostly clear and
tranquil night Wednesday night. Surface high pressure will slide to
the east on Thursday allowing a bit of moisture to circulate north
behind the high. Forecast models disagree on how quickly moisture
will return with the GFS surging in a lot of moisture but the ECMWF
keeping the region dry.

A new trough digging to our west will support developing low
pressure in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. This may begin to
track north later Friday into the weekend. Models do agree that
warmer air lifting north behind the departing high and ahead of the
Mid-Atlantic low will likely bring warm enough temperatures for just
rain in any precipitation we do get from the system.

Unsettled conditions may continue into Saturday with a boundary
between high pressure out in the Atlantic and a new high pushing in
from the west. This may bring a continued chance for some showers
through Saturday with a return of some sunshine Sunday as the
western high eventually takes over.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Snow and mixed precipitation will move out of the
area early this morning as a front exits the area. Similarly,
low cigs across the area will lift this morning. By afternoon,
all terminals are expected to be VFR and stay VFR tonight. South
winds this morning will shift to westerly this afternoon...and
northwesterly tonight. Gusts to 20 kt are expected this
afternoon and this evening.


SHORT TERM:
Monday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR late. Light and variable
wind.

Monday night...MVFR south. MVFR lowering to IFR north. E wind.

Tuesday...IFR north. MVFR to VFR south. SE wind.

Tuesday night...IFR north. MVFR south. Gusty NW winds.

Wednesday...MVFR becoming VFR north. VFR south. Gusty NW winds.

Wednesday night...VFR. Gusty SW winds.

Thursday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR from south to north. S
wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The south winds gusting up to 30 kt will diminish
this morning as a front crosses. Winds will then turn westerly
this afternoon and northerly tonight. Winds after this morning
will remain below advisory criteria, but south swell will
continue above 5 feet into this evening. As a result, have
extended the advisory to 8 PM this evening for the outer waters.

SHORT TERM:
A SCA will likely be needed late Tuesday into Wednesday,
possibly approaching gale Tuesday night, in gusty W winds. A SCA
may be needed again Thursday for S winds gusting close to 25 kt.
Seas may build up to 7 to 8 ft Tuesday night in response the
gusty W winds.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/MCW
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...LaFlash/MCW/Bloomer
Marine...LaFlash/MCW/Bloomer