966
FXUS61 KCAR 162135
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
535 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled across Maine through Saturday. Low
pressure will slowly cross the area Saturday night through
Sunday night, then slowly exit to the east Monday through
Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in on Wednesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain across
northern Maine tonight, while an upper level disturbance
approaches from the west. Showers/thunderstorms, most numerous
across northern/central portions of the forecast area, will
persist this evening. Showers/thunderstorms will then diminish
early tonight with the loss of diurnal heating.
Isolated/scattered showers will then persist across mostly
northern/central areas overnight. Satellite imagery indicates
areas of fog and low clouds along the Downeast coast which will
move inland across Downeast areas tonight. Patchy fog is
expected across northern areas later tonight. A vertically
stacking surface/upper system will approach from the west
Saturday. Shower/thunderstorm coverage will increase Saturday
in advance of the approaching system. With persistent moisture,
some of the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain
Saturday afternoon. The better chances for heavy rain Saturday
will be across west-central portions of the region. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s
across the forecast area. High temperatures Saturday will range
from around 60 to the mid 60s across much of the forecast area,
with mid to upper 50s along the Downeast coast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Diffluent flow aloft ahead of an approaching cutoff low will
support locally heavy showers continuing Saturday night,
especially over western portions of the forecast area, where
upslope flow will help to enhance any precipitation. Showalter
indices are down to around 1 or 2, so have a slight chance of
thunder in to reflect the potential for elevated convection.
Lows Saturday night should be around 5-10 degrees above normal.

The cutoff low should track along/near the boarder between
NY/VT/NH and Canada Sunday morning, then across southern Maine
Sunday afternoon and evening, then into Nova Scotia by Monday
morning. This will allow for continued showers across the
region, diminishing in coverage as the low moves to the S/E of a
given area. Locally heavy rainfall with any stronger convection
remains possible. Showalter indices rise to above 4, so do not
have thunder in the forecast during this time frame. Highs
Sunday should be around 5 degrees below normal and lows Sunday
night a few to around 5 degrees above normal.

The cutoff low tracks slowly along/just south of the coast of
Nova Scotia on Monday, with continued showers across the region,
with the best chance over mainly the North, with the best
forcing. With the region on the cool side of the cutoff - no
longer have an expectation for locally heavy rainfall. Highs on
Monday should be around 10-15 degrees below normal.

Refer to the hydrology section of the AFD for details on
expected QPF and any impacts from the rainfall Saturday night
into Monday.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cutoff low gradually weakens as it slowly tracks into the
southeastern Maritimes Monday night-Tuesday. Should see mainly
isolated to scattered showers, with coverage decreasing from NW
to SE as the storm pulls away.

Weak ridging builds into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
This should allow for things to begin to dry out, with slight
chance pops mainly Tuesday evening.

The models then differ on the timing/strength/track for
possibly another cutoff low for late next week. Based on the
uncertainty have limited pops to chance Wednesday night-Friday.
There is a small number of ensemble members that suggest that
this system could be far enough south, that we could receive
little or no impacts, but right now most ensemble models would
suggest a period of at least unsettled weather Wednesday night-
Friday. The large degree of uncertainty precludes specifying
what, if any, impacts this system might have.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR local IFR early tonight, then IFR/LIFR
occasional VLIFR overnight with fog. Showers along with
isolated/scattered thunderstorms early tonight, with
isolated/scattered showers overnight. IFR/LIFR, occasional
VLIFR, early Saturday with fog. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR,
Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms Saturday. Some of
the thunderstorms could produce heavy rain. South/southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots Saturday.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night-Sunday night: IFR or lower likely, with
conditions possibly improving to MVFR in locations by late
Sunday night. Locally heavy rainfall possible, with best chance
at northern terminals. LLWS possible at southern terminals
Saturday night.


Monday-Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible. NW-N winds G15-25KT
possible.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: MVFR with gradual improvement towards
VFR possible. NE-E winds G15-20KT possible.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Saturday. Areas of fog tonight through Saturday.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions are possible on the coastal ocean
waters Saturday night and Sunday, and should remain below SCA
levels on the intra-coastal waters during this time. All waters
should see sub-SCA conditions Sunday night, then SCA conditions
are possible on all waters Monday and Monday night. Sub-SCA
conditions should then return to the waters Tuesday and
continue into Wednesday.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread rainfall of 2/3 to 1.5 inches is expected across
the region from tonight through Sunday night, with highest
amounts over the Central Highlands and North Woods. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible with any stronger convection, during
this time frame, with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches
possible, especially over areas that experience multiple rounds
of rainfall. This could cause localized minor flooding of mainly
known poor drainage areas.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Norcross/Maloit
Marine...Norcross/Maloit
Hydrology...Maloit