679
FXUS61 KCAR 121351
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
951 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west today, crest over the
area tonight and then continue east across the Maritimes
Thursday into Friday. Low pressure will approach from the Plains
on Saturday then lift northwest of the area Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:50AM Update... Adjusted temperatures as northern county
temperatures rise slowly. Relatively dry air and clearing skies
throughout the forecast region. There is a few lower level
clouds moving through the north and higher terrain. Otherwise,
forecast is on track.

Previous Discussion...
Today will feature a 1024mb surface high sinking SE from Quebec
into Maine by late day. The flow at 500mb turns zonal across
the Great Lakes and New England states. Intially gusty NW winds
today 15-25mph will gradually weaken this afternoon as the high
pressure closes in on Maine. Expecting a cool day today compared
to yesterday with highs today in the 20s across the northern 1/2
of the CWA with low to mid 30s for the Central Highlands to
Downeast Coast. The cold spots today will be the North Woods and
St. John Valley where highs top out in the 18-21F range. Wind
Chills this morning across Northern Maine will be around zero to
single digits above zero but improve by midday with weakening
winds. Tonight, high pressure will drift over the state and exit
into New Brunswick by early morning as it weakens. An area of
elongated PVA at 500mb moves across the area as moisture aloft
advects northeastward into Maine on turning SW winds. Expect
some increasing high cloud cover from SW to NE through the
night. Expect a chilly night tonight despite the overnight
increasing cloud cover since most places decouple. Temperatures
fall back to around zero for the North including Fort Kent,
Caribou and Mars Hill. Upper single digits from Moosehead to
Baxter to Houlton. Low teens for Route 6 corridor with upper
teens from Bangor east to Calais along Route 9. 20-25F along the
Downeast coast including from Route 1 corridor to the shoreline
and islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday morning will begin calm and cold as high pressure crests
over the area. High pressure will slide east of the region on
Thursday allowing a return flow of milder air to begin. After lows
near zero north and 20 Downeast, the return flow combined with
partial sunshine will boost temperatures into the 30s across the
area under a partly sunny sky.

High pressure will continue to slide east across the Maritimes
Thursday night into Friday. However, surface ridging will still
extend back west from the high across our area bringing a clear to
partly cloudy sky Thursday night followed by a sunny to partly
cloudy and even warmer day on Friday. Highs Friday will reach the
mid to upper 40s.

A light southerly return flow will continue across the area Friday
night with weak surface ridging from the Maritimes high extending
west across the southern part of our area. This will bring a mild
night with temps only a couple degrees below freezing over the
region under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our focus going into the weekend will be on a large Plains low
tracking up toward the Western Great Lakes. A southerly gradient
behind the high off to our east and low pressure lifting up to our
west will continue to advect warmer air north across our region.
This will boost temperatures to near 50 under a partly to mostly
cloudy sky on Saturday. Dew points will rise well into the 30s
Saturday and remain above freezing Saturday night with lows only a
couple degrees below 40. The warm air combined with the higher dew
points will result in significant snow melt through Saturday
night with some rain showers possible.

Strong low pressure will lift up toward Hudson Bay on Sunday as it
pulls a surface occlusion toward our region. A southerly wind will
increase, temperatures will make a run for the mid 50s over the
region, and dew points will be into the upper 40s. The warm
moist wind on the snowpack will result in extensive snow melt.
Our long range models are showing that the rain band along the
frontal occlusion will weaken a bit as it approaches our region
late Sunday into Sunday night, and then strengthen to our east
as it pushes up against the high, which will now be taking up
the position of a subtropical high out in the Atlantic. In spite
of limited rainfall, snow melt will be extensive and will
likely result in significant rises of streams and rivers along
with possible ice movement and ice Jams. The smaller streams
will likely begin to respond Sunday night with the larger rivers
showing significant rises Monday into Tuesday.

Otherwise, Monday will be cloudy to partly sunny and continued mild
with highs near 50 before only moderately cooler air begins to push
in Monday night into Tuesday as weak high pressure builds in. Any
cool-down will be brief and limited with our long range outlook
showing another southerly warm-up ahead of another occlusion during
mid-week next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: There is some FEW/BKN MVFR cigs around northern
terminals for next couple hours. Generally VFR today with SCT
cigs. NW winds 10-15kt gusting up to 30kt. Winds become NW
5-15kt this afternoon. Tonight, VFR with increasing high cigs.
Winds light and variable.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday into Friday...VFR, Light S wind.

Friday night...VFR. Light S wind.

Saturday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR north late. S wind.

Saturday night...MVFR north. VFR lowering to MVFR south. S wind.

Sunday...IFR to LIFR. Increasing S wind. SSW wind shear up to 45 kt
at 2K ft. responding Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NW winds gusting 25-30kt this morning into midday
will become less than 25kt this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through 11AM for Intra-Coastal Waters and 2PM
for Coastal Waters. Seas 2-4ft this morning becoming 1-2ft this
afternoon and then building back to 2-4ft overnight tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Winds will be below SCA through Saturday, then increase to SCA
Saturday night and a gale on Sunday for increasing S winds. Seas
building up to 8 to 10 ft by late Sunday in response to the
southerly.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A significant but controlled snow melt is likely later this
week into early next week. Much of the snowpack is gone across
Downeast areas but significant snowpack remains in portions of
the Central Highlands and Northern Maine. That snowpack is
currently "ripening" and will likely be "ripe" by this weekend.
Temperatures will warm into the 40s and 50s for much of the
region with dew points above 32F which will begin to melt the
snowpack. Heading into the weekend there remains significant
risk of a prolonged period of temperatures and dew points well
above freezing which will accelerate snow melt. Through the
weekend expecting 1-2 inches of snow water equivalent to melt
across the area thanks to warm temperatures and southerly winds.
Thankfully, the natural flow under river ice is below normal
and rises will remain gradual. River ice will undergo weakening
through thermal rot, particularly in the Central Highlands and
remaining iced in Downeast rivers, but thermal rot is expected
areawide. Concern turns towards a storm system late this
weekend that will spread rainfall over the region, resulting in
more rapid snowmelt late Sunday into Monday. There remains a lot
of uncertainty in terms of rainfall totals for the area. The
combination of rain, snowmelt and weakened river ice due to
thermal rot, will cause river rises sufficient to break-up and
move river ice in many locations, leading to an elevated risk
for ice jam flooding by Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Brennan/Sinko/Bloomer
Marine...Brennan/Sinko/Bloomer
Hydrology...