Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
315 FXUS61 KCAR 041820 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 220 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front Downeast dissipates this evening and lifts back northeast as a warm front early Sunday. High pressure remains south of the region through Monday. A cold front approaches Tuesday then crosses the area Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure builds in Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... This Afternoon... Very weak cold front is sliding south through the area. As of 130pm, it is around Millinocket and moving south and continuing to weaken. Temperatures are only a little cooler north of the front with mid to upper 60s, and temperatures are in the low to mid 70s south of the front. Behind the front, there are partly cloudy skies, and ahead of the front there are mostly sunny skies. Winds are only a little breezy with 5-10 mph mainly from the NW. No showers across the area. While we can`t totally rule out a shower in NE Maine behind the front, based on lack of activity at present with any showers being at least 30 miles NE of the NE Maine border, have taken out the isolated showers for the rest of the day. Tonight... Mostly clear early tonight, then partly to mostly cloudy later in the night. The weak cold front falls apart over Downeast early this evening, then begins to lift back NE as a warm front very late tonight. Can`t totally rule out a shower or two grazing far NE Maine late tonight or early Sunday, and only have a 20 percent chance in. Fog tonight is a tricky call. Some CAMs have dense fog especially in eastern portions of the area, but it`s a minority of them. Think that fog may be a tough go considering the mid-level clouds increasing over Eastern Maine later tonight. Went with patchy fog to be safe, but tentatively holding off on anything more than patchy, and going conservative in TAFs. Low temperatures tonight will be pretty close to this morning, with mainly 40s. Sunday... Warm front lifts northeast in the morning, with any mid-level clouds decreasing by late morning, leaving mostly sunny skies the rest of the day. No rain associated with the cold front except for a 20 percent chance of a shower over the far NE before 9am. Quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 70s, except around 70 near the coast thanks to fairly weak onshore flow. S/SW breeze 5-10 mph. Sunday Night... Despite mostly clear skies, looking warmer Sunday night, with lows in the 50s. No rain and a light SW breeze. Could be some fog near the coast late in the night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Unseasonably warm air mass will remain in place across the region Monday with strong ridge in place to our south. Southwest flow will transport very warm air into the region with record, or near record afternoon highs possible under mainly sunny skies. Ridge continues to move east Monday night with a mainly clear and mild night expected. High pressure continues to move east out into the open waters of the Atlantic during Tuesday. Cold front approaching from the northwest begins to move into far northern areas by afternoon. Tuesday will continue to feature afternoon highs well above normal for this time of year, although not quite as warm as Monday`s. Record highs will once again be possible. Expect the chance for showers across northern areas Tuesday afternoon as the front approaches. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The front slowly crosses northern and central areas Tuesday night. Some models continue to suggest a weak area of low pressure will move northeast along the front later Tuesday night into Wednesday with a band of rain, mainly across central and southern sections of the forecast area. The front moves well offshore later Wednesday through Wednesday night. Wednesday will be much cooler than Tuesdays highs in the wake of the front with the potential for clouds and rain. Thursday will even be cooler with afternoon highs only in the lower 50s north and mid to upper 50s central and Downeast. The high moves east Friday and Friday night with continued dry weather and chilly temperatures. More seasonable weather returns by Saturday ahead of the next approaching front. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Through 0z This Evening...VFR with scattered deck around 6000 ft AGL, dissipating toward 0z. NW wind around 10 kts dissipating toward 0z. Saturday Night...Mainly VFR. However, can`t rule out local IFR or lower late tonight, with the best chance (25 percent) at HUL and PQI. Other sites have around a 15 percent chance of IFR. Not nearly enough confidence in IFR to put in TAF, and only put a few hours of MVFR visibility at HUL and PQI. Light winds tonight. Sunday...Mainly VFR, other than the small chance of IFR early morning mentioned above. S/SW wind increasing to around 10 kts in the afternoon. Sunday Night...Mainly VFR with SW wind 5 kts or less. Patchy fog possible late in the night mainly at BHB. SHORT TERM: Monday...VFR. Tuesday...VFR, lowering to MVFR over the north late. Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR. Chance of rain. Wednesday...MVFR/IFR. NW wind. Thu..VFR/MVFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Conditions below small craft through Sunday night with minimal fog. SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... A wetting rain is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, when rainfall of a quarter to three quarters of an inch is likely. Could see some gusty southwest winds to 15-20 mph both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday afternoon into Thursday should see a return of dry and much cooler conditions with gusty northerly winds. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures for Sunday October 5th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 77/2005 77 Bangor 81/1946 76 Millinocket 82/1916 76 Houlton 78/2007 74 Record High Temperatures for Monday October 6th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 74/1946 82 Bangor 84/1946 82 Millinocket 82/1946 83 Houlton 73/1957 82 Record High Temperatures for Tuesday October 7th: Location.....Record High/Year...Forecast High Caribou 76/2016 76 Bangor 84/1946 77 Millinocket 81/1946 78 Houlton 76/2016 76 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Foisy Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...Foisy/TWD Marine...Foisy/TWD Fire Weather...TWD Climate...Foisy/TWD