375
FXUS61 KCAR 060130
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
930 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the area today then exit into the
Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure will return Sunday.
A cold front will move in Monday into Monday night, then exit
to the east on Tuesday as low pressure tracks north over the
Maritimes. Upper level low approaches on Wednesday and crosses
northern portions of the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
928PM Update...Satellite images show the stratus deck staying
over the north and east with the Bangor Region and coastal
Hancock remaining clear. No major changes to the forecast for
this update.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will continue to track eastward and out of the
state this evening. Some scattered rain showers may continue to
wrap around the low center and back into the eastern half of the
forecast area through the early evening hours, but will
continue to clear out by midnight tonight. Northwesterly winds
will begin to advect cooler air into the region tonight into
Sunday. For tonight, overcast skies will prevent much in the way
of radiational cooling, so temperatures will remain mild in the
low to mid 40s. Recent rainfall has increased low level
moisture, and with falling temperatures from the northwest,
patchy fog may develop overnight, leading to patchy limited
visibility through the early Sunday morning hours.

For Sunday, overcast skies are likely to continue under a narrow
ridge of high pressure. With overcast skies during diurnal
heating and continued cold air advection, highs will only reach
into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Clds with the next low from the Great Lks will cont to increase
Sun Ngt with leading shwrs reaching Wrn and Nrn areas Mon Morn.
Shwrs will consolidate to lgt to mdt steady rn durg Mon Aftn
and Eve as the warm advcn occluded front from this system
apchs. Rnfl from this phase of the event will be arnd 0.50+ msly
across Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA with a little less ovr Downeast
areas.

Latest models are in a little better agreement with the idea of
a deformation band of at least mdt, possibly hvy rnfl forming
ovr the FA pre daybreak Tue and contg spcly ovr the Ern hlf of
the FA thru Tue Aftn. The band forms as a result of sig s/wv
energy digging SSE from the Ern Hudson Bay are of Can twrd the
Gulf of ME, with a sfc low forming on the cold front as the
front crawls ewrd across the FA Tue Morn. This scenario seems
reasonable given that NAO is fcst to become more negative
during this tm frame. Amgst the dtmnstc models, again Tdys 12z
dtmnstc GFS is the most progressive and lightest with rnfl with
this band, while the CanGem is the slowest and heaviest. The 12z
ECMWF is somewhere in between, and this is where the fcst is
currently hinged where we indicate upwards to an additional inch
of rnfl msly Tue Morn and Aftn alg the NB border with lesser
amts further west. Needless to say, there is uncertainty with
rnfl with this phase of the event, with the potential of sharp
QPF gradients. Only if the CanGem model solution were correct
with its upward to 2 inches of rnfl Tue Morn into Erly Tue Eve
would we have to be concerned of any flooding concerns and its
to erly to have confidence in this scenario attm.

For now, we show rn tapering to shwrs from SW to NE across the
Rgn Tue Eve into the Ovrngt as the deformation zone lifts out.
Colder llvl air advcg ewrd behind the cold front will likely
result in rn chgng to sn Tue Aftn and Eve ovr trrn ovr 3500 ft
MSL ovr the NW and Cntrl ME Highlands, including Mt Katahdin
where a lgt slushy accumulation is possible from the table to
summit.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aftwrds, sig cooler and unsettled wx conditons will prevail ovr
the FA Wed thru Fri with the nearby presence of an upper low
and additional s/wv energy from Hudson Bay Can Wed Ngt and Thu.
It will cont to be cold enough for rn/sn shwrs over higher trrn
ovr the NW/N Cntrl mtns, with additional lgt accumulating snfl
ovr highest trrn like Mt Katahdin. Downeast areas will have more
in the way of sunshine due to downslope winds. Blended long
range models then slowly drop PoPs below chc across the N late
Thu Ngt with drier but cont`d cool and msly cldy conditions on
Fri. With the upper low finally moving further E from the
Maritimes ovr the open N Atlc, we are optimistically fcstg
partial clrg for Fri Ngt into Sat across the N with a little
milder aftn high temps Sat, but this area may still hold on to
intervals of BKN-OVC SC cld cvr durg this tm while Cntrl and
Downeast areas hold on to ptly to msly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Low cigs are likely to continue through the night
tonight, and be slow to lift through the day on Sunday. Cigs
will generally sit around MVFR/IFR this evening, becoming IFR
across the north overnight. Downeast terminals may hang onto
MVFR a bit longer, though dips to IFR are possible through early
Sunday morning. MVFR likely to remain across all terminals
through the day on Sunday. NW winds 5 to 10 kts tonight may
shift NE around 5 kts on Sunday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low VFR/MVFR clgs.
Lgt and vrbl winds.

Mon Morn...all TAF sites MVFR clgs and intermittent vsbys in
shwrs. Lgt SE winds.

Mon Aftn - Tue...all TAF sites low MVFR/IFR clgs/vsbys in rn
and patchy fog. Lgt SE winds...becmg lgt W Tue.

Tue Ngt - Thu...Nrn TAF sites MVFR clgs with sct rn shwrs.
Downeast sites MVFR-low VFR clgs with isolated shwrs. Lgt to
mdt WNW winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA tonight through
Sunday. A few wind gusts may approach 20 kts behind the frontal
passage tonight. SE swell continues today through tonight, with
9 second period increasing to around 14 seconds on Sunday.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Seas increase to SCA on Mon msly ovr outer
MZs likely from some long pd swell from Hurricane Kirk, contg
into Tue. After a break Tue Ngt thru Wed, WNW winds could reach
SCA on Thu behind a departing Maritimes low. Kept close to
blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with wvs composed of a
short pd group with 2 to 3 sec pds and an open Atlc group with
10 to 12 sec pds.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/LaFlash
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash/VJN
Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash/VJN