097
FXUS61 KCAR 272312
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
712 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the region late tonight and early Friday.
Weak low pressure passes through New England Saturday with high
pressure briefly returning before another low approaches from
the south on Sunday. High pressure builds in behind this system
through mid-week before another system arrives late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 pm update...Ongoing forecast looks good with no changes other
than short term temp trends. Big story in the near term remains
the cold front sweeping across the area Friday morning with some
slick roads possible...mostly in Aroostook County where up to an
inch may fall as the cold front crosses during the AM commute
time.

Previous discussion...

Brief ridging this evening will result in decreasing cloudiness
through the first half of tonight. However, clouds will be on the
increase after midnight in advance of an approaching short wave and
surface cold front from Quebec. Expect snow showers to develop,
mainly from the Katahdin region northward after midnight, and
continue into Friday morning. Although we are not expecting
much in the way of snow accumulation (generally an inch or
less), any snow showers will be centered around the Friday
morning commute time. The cold front moves east later Friday
morning. In the wake of the front, cold air advection kicks in
along with a northwest wind which will gust as high as 25 mph at
times. Expect decreasing afternoon clouds with a lingering
flurry or isolated snow showers not out the question across
northern areas through early afternoon. Afternoon temperatures
will generally be in the low to mid 30s north and upper 30s to
near 40 for Bangor and Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our next system arrives early Saturday morning as a shortwave
approaches from the west over Quebec. At the surface, low
pressure is expected to cross through New England but how far
north it makes it is still uncertain. The GFS continues to be
the more northern and stronger solution while the Euro is the
weaker and more southern solution with the Canadian falling
between the two. The GFS produces more snow due to the more
northerly track but also as a result of more northerly flow
leading to increased cold air damming. Other models,
particularly the NAM do not hold onto the cold air damming as
long. Will have to watch the cold air damming closely to see
which of the solutions the models converge on. Some sleet and
freezing rain may mix with snow in the Bangor region but this is
not expected to be the main concern and any ice accumulations
are expected to remain around a trace.

Snow tapers off Saturday night as high pressure briefly returns
before another, stronger low approaches from the southwest. On
Sunday, the warm front moves north with precipitation beginning
as snow before transitioning to freezing rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Freezing rain continues Sunday night and eventually transitions
to all rain by Monday morning. There is still considerable
uncertainty on precip amounts, the low track, and timing.
However, it does appear likely that there will be an impactful
period of freezing rain for most areas that has the potential to
exceed a quarter inch. Most likely this would occur roughly
Sunday night. How long the freezing rain holds on will depend on
the longevity of the cold air damming so will have to watch
this closely but all areas should change to rain by Monday
morning.

Rain ends by Tuesday morning and high pressure returns with
clearing skies and blustery NW winds in the wake of the exiting
low. The next system arrives Thursday with another chance of
rain and snow later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 pm update...00Z TAFs kept the same idea as previously with a
brief period of MVFR cigs and IFR vis in snow for sites north of
HUL early Friday morning. Did add a 2-hour window for IFR snow
showers at BGR too, but confidence is not as high as further
north.

NEAR TERM: VFR all terminals through this evening. After 09Z,
MVFR/IFR possible in scattered snow showers at the Aroostook
county terminals, especially KFVE/KCAR. Mainly VFR KBGR/KBHB
with possible vicinity snow showers. W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt,
becoming light S after 00Z this evening.

MVFR/IFR possible at the Aroostook county terminals in scattered
snow showers Friday morning, otherwise VFR expected at all
terminals. NW wind with G 25 kt.


SHORT TERM:

Sat through Sat night...VFR Aroostook terminals. MVFR or lower
possible BGR/BHB in snow. Light wind.

Sun through Mon...VFR early Sunday, deteriorating to IFR from SW
to NE through Sunday into Sunday evening. Snow transitioning to
freezing rain, then to rain. Confidence is higher than usual for
this far out for a period of freezing rain at most TAF sites at
some point late Sun to early Mon. LLWS possible.

Tues...VFR with NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels this evening
and then increase to SCA levels by daybreak Friday. Winds/seas
will then remain at SCA levels through much of the day Friday.
Thus, a small craft advisory has been issued beginning early
Friday morning through early Friday evening for gusts up to 25
kt.

SHORT TERM: Winds decrease below SCA levels Friday night becoming
E/NE for the weekend and generally remain below small craft.
Seas may reach small craft levels on Sunday, and small
craft winds/seas appear likely Sunday night/Monday as winds
shift to the S/SE. Winds become NW by Tuesday morning with
possible gales.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A few ice jams remain locked in place across northern Maine but
are not impacting any roads or structures. Any impacts are low
lying areas near the river banks with minimal impacts. River
ice is leading to a localized limited risk for ice jam flooding
over the next week as thermal decay of the ice is expected.

An ice jam remains grounded into the river bed upriver from
Washburn at the Aroostook River bend near Castle Hill and Wade.
Water levels have come down and will continue to fall over the
next couple days.

An ice jam remains grounded into the river bed upriver of Fort
Fairfield near the Fort Fairfield and Caribou town line. Water
levels have fall over the last couple days and will continue to
fall as ice decays. Minor shifts could cause additional low
lying flooding but impacts will be minimal.

A six mile jam remains around Saint Francis, with no flooding at
this time. Water levels continue to subside in this area at this
time.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/MCW
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...TWD/MCW/Melanson
Marine...TWD/MCW/Melanson
Hydrology...