976
FXUS61 KCAR 071808
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
208 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the area today. High pressure
builds into the area Sunday through Monday, followed by another
low pressure system through the area Tuesday and exiting to the
east on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2:00PM Update... Showers continue to move through southern and
central Maine this afternoon, with some isolated periods of
heavier showers. Best chances for thunderstorms are this
afternoon into evening. Updated temperatures and skies to match
observations. Previous forecast on track. Read updated Aviation
section.

Previous Discussion...
Scattered showers are present over parts of the area this
morning. Low pressure will track south of Maine today. This will
bring a renewed round of more widespread showers this
afternoon. This will mainly be for the Katahdin region to
Houlton southward. Instability parameters suggest that thunder
will be possible. With a saturated profile and PWATs in excess
of 1.50 inches, locally heavy downpours will be possible. A
secondary cold front will drop into the Crown of Maine late this
afternoon. High resolution models show a line of showers and
thunderstorms with this front. Not expecting severe
thunderstorms, but could see some locally heavy rainfall. With
clouds and rainfall, highs today will be cooler than recent
days. Most places will see highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A bit cooler a the coast with light onshore winds.

Showers come to an end for most this evening as the
aforementioned low pulls the front away to the east. Some
showers could still linger in Washington County after midnight.
Skies will begin to clear from northwest to southeast, and dew
point temperatures will drop. Decided to go below NBM
temperature guidance for the colder valleys in the North Woods
due to higher confidence in radiational cooling. Expect lows to
drop into the 40s for those areas. Elsewhere, lows will be in
the lower to mid 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build into the
forecast area on Sunday, leading to clearing skies and drier
weather. Highs could lift into the mid 70s across the region,
and could make a push for the upper 70s in areas which see
little cloud cover through the day. Elevated mixing heights will
also help relative humidity quickly drop during the day on
Sunday. For Sunday night, partly to mostly clear skies will
likely continue, with a slight chance for patchy fog development
near the coast due to the marine influence. Even with the ideal
radiational cooling conditions, lows Sunday night may only fall
into the lower 50s, though potentially into the upper 40s across
the North Woods.

On Monday, the approaching cold front from the west has trended
significantly slower on recent model runs, with the ridge of
high pressure dominating the pattern through the day on Monday
as well. As such, temperatures may once again soar into the 70s,
but with a chance for increased cloud cover ahead of the
incoming low pressure system, temperatures may not reach as
warm. However, if the leading edge of upper level cloud cover
also slows in approach, temperatures on Monday could be much
like Sunday and a run for the upper 70s would not be out of the
question. Rain will begin to approach from the west late Monday
night as a cold front approaches from the west, but most of the
forecast area looks to remain dry through the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A generally unsettled pattern is expected through most of the
upcoming work week with an upper level trough dominating the
synoptic pattern over the area. The first shortwave is likely to
impact the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a cold front
crossing the area and bringing the next round of measurable rain
to the forecast area. Current guidance points towards an above
average PWAT setup, and forecast soundings hint at well-
saturated low to mid levels by Tuesday night with storm motion
parallel to the boundary and a deep warm cloud layer. Though
plenty can change with guidance trends between now and Tuesday
night, some key components are falling into place for the
potential for another brief round of heavy rainfall.

There may be a pause in rain chances Wednesday night before
another quick moving shortwave rolls through sometime on
Thursday. Timing uncertainty is increasing at this point with
this shortwave, though currently looks to be a weaker system
with less overall rainfall. And at long last, there could be
high pressure beginning to build into the area for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI: Mainly VFR, with periods of MVFR due to
continued haze. Light rain showers and isolated TS possible this
afternoon, but kept it at a PROB30 due to low confidence.
Conditions improve to VFR tonight with clearing skies. Winds
light and variable today. N winds at 5-10 kts tonight into
tomorrow.

KHUL/KBGR/KBHB: Rain this afternoon into evening, which could
be heavy at times. Haze could reduce visibility at times. Isolated
TS possible this PM. Rain showers move out by later tonight,
but ceilings stay low until tomorrow morning. Potential for some
fog down at KBHB tomorrow morning. Winds light and variable
today. N winds at 5-10 kts tonight into tomorrow.

SHORT TERM:
Sun  Mon night: VFR across all terminals. N winds 5 to 10 kts
Sunday becoming light and variable overnight. SE winds 5 to 10
kts with a few gusts to 20 kts Monday - Monday night. LLWS
possible Mon night as winds decrease some overnight.

Tues  Tues night: VFR, trending towards MVFR to IFR in rain
showers, especially if moderate to heavy rainfall occurs. SSE
winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible, shifting SW
around 5 kts overnight.

Wed: Gradual improvement back towards VFR as rain leaves the
area, though MVFR cigs may linger at northern terminals. WSW
winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible. LLWS possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria today and tonight. Wave heights will be around 2 feet
on the intra-coastal waters, and 2 to 4 feet on the outer
waters. Fog will reduce visibility on the waters at times this
morning. Rain showers will reduce visibility at times on the
waters today into this evening. Thunder possible over the waters
this afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds will generally be below small craft advisory
levels until the middle of next week, when gusts may approach 20
to 25 kts Wednesday into Thursday. Seas may briefly approach 5
ft on Sunday, prior to decreasing to 2 to 4 ft through the
beginning of the week, only to increase towards 5 ft Wednesday
into Thursday. Patchy fog could limit visibility Sunday night,
and rain is likely late Tuesday through Tuesday night, with a
slight chance for thunderstorms late Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ001>006-010-
     011-031-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/Clark
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Brennan/Clark/AStrauser
Marine...Brennan/Clark/AStrauser