252
FXUS61 KCAR 101109
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
609 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to move slowly east of the Canadian
Maritimes today. High pressure briefly builds in tonight. Low
pressure will pass well to our south and east Saturday through
Saturday night. High pressure follows for Sunday. Another
trough of low pressure approaches through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Increased cloud cover a bit early this morning across the
northern zones based on latest satellite imagery. Otherwise,
just minor adjustments to hourly temperatures and dew points.

previous discussion
Low pressure east of the Canadian Maritimes will continue to
slowly move east through tonight while high pressure build east
toward the region. Gusty northwest wind will continue with tight
pressure gradient remaining in place into this afternoon.
Gradient will then weaken as high continues to build in later
this afternoon and tonight with diminishing winds. Clouds this
morning will continue to decrease through this afternoon. The
upper level ridge will crest over the region tonight, while
surface high remains to our north across eastern Quebec
province. Expect partly cloudy skies overnight. Afternoon highs
today will generally range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows
tonight will range from the mid to upper teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday morning will see coastal low moving off of the Carolina
coast while a weaker sfc low fills over the Great Lakes. Light snow
will be entering the state with hipres keeping pcpn out of the CWA
through mid-morning. As the low heads into the Atlantic an inverted
trof looks to develop in the afternoon. At the same time, the upr
level low will be dropping into Upstate NY enhancing lift along weak
convergence associated with the inverted trough. High chc to low
likely pops look to occur into interior Downeast during the day on
Saturday. Cannot rule out 1/2 to 1 inch falling in these areas
through 00z Sunday. Have indicated just light snow across the
region.

Light snow looks to continue into Saturday evening before forcing
weakens as the sfc low heads east into the open Atlantic. Upper low
will be dropping into the Gulf of Maine after 06z with snowfall
totals of 1-2 inches, mainly over the Downeast coast and perhaps up
toward the Bangor Region.

Ridging builds in behind system as it shoves east with clearing
skies and light winds expected for Sunday into Sunday evening.
Clouds increase across the west late Sunday night as bowling ball
upr low drops into the Upper Midwest. Associated sfc low looks to be
located near the western Great Lakes with a warm front possibly
setting up just to our north and west. Last vestiges of high
pressure will keep our area dry thru Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Clipper-type system will be heading toward the northeast early next
week. Have continued with idea of slgt chc to lochc pops across the
north on Monday and then over most of the area Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Somewhat unusual setup Monday night into Tuesday as clipper
approaches and begins to fill while weak coastal low looks to
develop Tuesday morning. Deterministic and their respective
ensembles are showing this as well but too early to go likely at any
point with this system. Interesting that EC develops much deeper
coastal low than does the GFS or CMC for Tuesday evening, as they
are slower to drive the upr low off of the coast.

Once this passes to our east, Arctic air begins to move into the CWA
and likely remain through the end of the week before moderating into
the weekend. Still no significant systems appear to be on the
horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/VFR ceilings expected this morning, then VFR
expected all terminals this afternoon through tonight. NW wind
gusts up to 30 kt through this afternoon, then N wind 5 to 10 kt
tonight. LLWS expected for KBGR/KBHB into this afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...MVFR developing over all terminals with possible IFR in
light snow at Downeast terminals in the afternoon. Light N.

Saturday night...MVFR northern terminals, IFR Downeast in light
snow. NW 5-10kts.

Sunday-Sunday night...VFR southern terms with ocnl MVFR cigs across
the north. NW 5-10kts Sunday becoming light W late Sunday night.

Monday...VFR Downeast with MVFR in light snow showers over northern
terminals. Light S winds.

Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR in light snow showers, possible IFR at
times over all terminals. Light NW.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have discontinued the Gale Warning for outer waters
to a small craft advisory through 9 pm this evening. The SCA for
the intra coastal zone is in effect through 6 pm this evening.
Winds/seas will then decrease to below SCA levels tonight.

SHORT TERM: Seas should remain below small craft levels through
Tuesday. Winds will approach SCA conditions over the far outer
waters late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds diminish and
remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Buster
Marine...TWD/Buster