727
FXUS61 KCAR 040141
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
941 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the north this evening, then
slowly pushes south through Maine, as it weakens, from late
tonight into Monday night. High pressure crosses the region
Tuesday through Thursday then begins to move southeast Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
Weak cold front continues to slowly sag south and is just
entering the Saint John Valley at this hour. Radar reflectivity
shows a few showers and isolated thunderstorms crossing the
North Maine Woods and Saint John Valley at time. This activity
will weaken as it moves east across far northern areas through
early tonight. Just minor adjustments to pop/weather based on
latest trends, otherwise no other changes.

previous discussion
The region remains under roughly zonal flow aloft sitting in
between a upper level low tracking across NE Canada and the
sub-tropical ridge to the south through Monday night. Shortwaves
rotating around the upper low will pass by during this time
frame helping to gradually push a weakening cold front to the
south through Maine. The latest Canadian Radar data shows that
precipitation runs fairly close to the front. Based on this,
have slowed the progression of precipitation into the region.
For now have left a slight chance of thunder into the early
evening hours along the N boarder with Canada. However, if
current trends of no lightning along the front in Canada hold,
might have to remove that in subsequent updates.

High resolution models seem to have a good handle on this
overall idea, so weighed heavily in the pops, limiting to
isolated coverage. There should be a lull in any precipitation
just ahead of the front from late this evening into mid morning
Monday with limited instability. Have isolated thunder in as
well late Monday morning into early Monday evening, but do not
see much support for anything strong.

The other forecast issue is the persistent smoke from the
Canadian Wildfires, did linger this as per HRRR into Monday
night. However, with mixing from the passing of the front, did
limit the mention of Haze through the day tomorrow (in areas
without smoke but ahead of the cold front).

Lows tonight should range from the mid 50s to around 60, with
the smoke helping to limit how much temperatures fall off. This
is near to slightly above normal. Highs on Monday, should range
from around 70 to around 80 - running around 3-5 degrees below
the NBM, similar to today, due to the smoke. This is around 5
degrees below normal across the North (mainly behind the front)
and near normal elsewhere (mainly along/ahead of the front).
Lows Monday night should be near normal across the Bangor
Region/Downeast and around 5 degrees above normal across the
North.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain ridged across the region Tuesday through
Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be at
near normal levels Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region Thursday, begin to move
southeast Friday, then exit southeast of Nova Scotia Saturday into
Sunday. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Thursday through
Saturday. A cold front could begin to cross the region Sunday,
though the timing is still uncertain. Dependent on the timing of the
front, could have a slight chance/chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear/partly
cloudy. Temperatures will be at near normal levels Thursday.
Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Friday through
Sunday, with a gradual warming trend. Dewpoints will also begin to
gradually increase next weekend with the developing return flow
around exiting high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE...MVFR visibility due to smoke through tonight. TSRA
possible 0z-1z, otherwise sct -SHRA expected tonight. VFR aft
11z Mon through Mon night. SW wind 5 to 10 kt becoming NW 5 to
10 kt aft 03z and continuing through Mon night.

KCAR...MVFR visibility due to smoke. VCSH tonight. VFR aft 11z
Mon through Mon night. SW wind 5 to 10 kt becoming, becoming W
to NW aft 05Z 5 to 10 kt through Mon night.

KPQI... Mainly VFR through Mon night but MVFR visibility
possible at times in smoke. VCSH tonight. SW wind 5 to 10 kt
becoming, becoming W to NW aft 06Z 5 to 10 kt through Mon night.

KHUL... Mainly VFR through Mon night but MVFR visibility
possible at times in smoke. Light S wind becoming W 5 to 10 kt
aft 13z Mon

KBGR...Mainly VFR through Mon night. Light S wind tonight
becoming W 5 to 10 aft 16z Mon

KBHB...Mainly VFR through Mon night. Light S wind tonight
then S to SW 5 to 10 aft 14z Mon, then N aft 0z Tue.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday through Friday...Variable conditions with any possible
overnight valley fog. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
Tuesday through Thursday night. South/southwest winds around 10
knots Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
Monday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday
through Wednesday night.


&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Monday for MEZ001>006-010-
     011-031-032.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT Monday for MEZ015>017-029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Maloit
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...TWD/Maloit/Norcross
Marine...TWD/Maloit/Norcross