842
FXUS61 KCAR 092145
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
545 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track southwest of the region late tonight
through early Monday. High pressure will build across the
region later Monday. A warm front will lift through the area
Tuesday morning followed by a cold front late Tuesday night.
High pressure will cross the region Wednesday while a warm front
lifts north on Thursday. A cold front will cross the area on
Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak surface low and supporting upper level disturbance will
cross the region early tonight. A stronger surface low and
supporting upper disturbance will then track slightly southwest
of the region later tonight through early Monday. Skies will
remain mostly cloudy across the forecast area tonight.
Isolated/scattered snow showers are possible with the initial
disturbance early tonight. The most significant snow with the
second disturbance will generally remain southwest of the
region, only clipping the southwest corner of the forecast area.
More extensive snow showers, possibly a steadier light snow,
will occur across the southwest corner of the forecast area late
tonight into Monday morning. Snow accumulations of up to around
an inch are possible across the southwest corner of the
forecast area through Monday morning. Only isolated/scattered
snow showers are expected across the remainder of the forecast
area overnight with little accumulation. This system will
rapidly exit across the Gulf of Maine Monday morning with snow
showers ending in the wake of the system. Otherwise, expect a
mostly cloudy morning then a partly sunny afternoon Monday. Low
temperatures tonight will range through the single digits to
around 10 above north, to around 20 to the lower 20s Downeast.
High temperatures Monday will range from around 30 north, to the
upper 30s to around 40 Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging moves over Maine Monday night, that then pushes out to
the west by daybreak. Partially cloudy skies up north and
relatively clear Downeast, which could lead to some radiational
cooling. As a result, lowered Downeast temperatures a few
degrees from guidance. Overnight lows in the teens in the north,
and 20s Downeast. Soundings show some low level moisture that
could squeeze out some flurries in the far north overnight.
Light southerly winds.

Low pressure system to our northwest in Quebec brings a
potential for some precipitation Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday morning. In the morning, precipitation starts out as
snow in far northwestern Maine, but as temperatures quickly rise
with warm air advection incoming from a warm front, expect
precipitation to quickly change over to rain as temperatures
rise. Highest chances for precipitation are in northern Maine,
Tuesday evening. There is a potential for some light scattered
rain showers throughout the area. There is some model indication
for some shortwave kinks to develop over central Maine Tuesday
evening into the nighttime, with some favorable lift conditions,
so may monitor for some localized heavier showers to occur.
Pressure gradient develops over the area Tuesday morning,
leading to some gusty winds Tuesday into Wednesday. High
temperatures forecast to be in the 40s throughout the
forecasting region.

Cold air advection moves through Maine late Tuesday night
however, changing some precipitation over to snow showers. With
temperatures forecast to stay well below freezing Tuesday night,
any standing water could freeze, causing untreated surfaces to
become slick, especially for Wednesday morning commute. Low
temperatures on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are
forecast to be in the single digits up north, and 20s south of
Mt. Katahdin. Ridging then moves in on Wednesday morning.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging moves in on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Chance of
precipitation further indicated in models by a frontal passage Thursday
into Friday. Temperatures currently forecast to be below
freezing throughout the forecast region, and above freezing over
the waters. Being this far out, however, cant rule out a
rain/snow mix if temperatures creep above freezing Downeast. As
a result, freezing on untreated surfaces could occur as
temperatures drop overnight. Continue to monitor the forecast
for updates.

Next weekend does indicate a longwave trough moving through the
middle of the country, that moves northeast into Canada,
indicating good chances for precipitation to fall. Expect some
seasonably warm temperatures next weekend with highs currently
forecast in the 40s and 50s. Models currently indicate
precipitation expected Sunday into Monday, which is currently
forecast to fall as rain. Could also be some elevated gusts
Sunday night into Monday due to a high pressure system parking
in the Atlantic, causing a tight pressure gradient, but still
too early to tell for sure.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR across much of the region tonight
through Monday. However, occasional MVFR conditions possible
with any snow showers later tonight into Monday morning. More
extensive MVFR, possibly IFR, at KBGR and KBHB later tonight
into Monday morning with more numerous snow showers. VFR
regionwide Monday afternoon. West winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
variable 5 to 10 knots tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming west/northwest Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night  Tuesday: VFR/MVFR conditions in the north due to
light snow showers/flurries, and VFR conditions at southern
terminals. Snow is expected to shift over to rain during the day
on Tuesday. Winds from the SW at 5-10 kts Monday night, then
shift to the S at 5-10 kts on Tuesday night, and then shift to
the W at 5-10 kts by early Wednesday morning. Gusts 20-25 kts
possible during the day Tuesday.

Tuesday night: VFR/MVFR conditions in the north due to
rain/snow showers, and VFR conditions at southern terminals.
Rain is forecast to change over to snow as temperature drop
below freezing late Tuesday night. Southern terminals could see
some light rain showers. Winds from the S at 5-10 kts, gusting
20-25 kts possible.

Wednesday  Wednesday night: VFR conditions forecast. Winds
from the W/NW at 5-10 kts with gusts 20-25kts possible.

Thursday: VFR/MVFR due to some potential snow showers. Winds
from the S/SE at 5-10 kts, and gusts up to 15 kt possible.

Thursday night: VFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday: VFR/MVFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of
the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters,
through 2 AM Monday. Conditions then expected to be below small
craft advisory levels later tonight through Monday. On the
intra-coastal waters, winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
tonight through Monday. Visibilities reduced in snow showers
later tonight into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria
Monday night. Winds and seas forecast to increase to Small Craft
Advisory criteria on Tuesday into Wednesday night. Slight
chance for rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. Potential
for some snow showers Thursday. Winds from the S/SW Monday night
into Tuesday. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday night has winds
shifting from the S to the NW. Winds then shift from the NE to
the S by Thursday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Brennan
Long Term...Brennan
Aviation...Norcross/Brennan
Marine...Norcross/Brennan