139
FXUS61 KCAR 280633
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
233 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be to our south today then slide to the east
tonight. Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec on
Friday then slowly cross the area this weekend. High pressure will
return on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure to our south will bring a mostly sunny day today as
inland highs make a run for the mid 70s. The high will slide to the
east late today into tonight bringing a return southerly breeze
across the area. The evening will begin mostly clear. The light
return flow out of the south may bring some low clouds into the
Downeast region late tonight.

Our focus on Friday turns to an upper low diving south from Western
Quebec. Upper level divergence east of this low will work with some
surface convergence in an approaching occlusion to bring showers
into western areas Friday morning. From there, showers will slowly
push east possibly reaching eastern areas of the north by late
Friday. There is uncertainty in the models regarding how much rain
will make it across to the eastern part of our region with the
possibility that the band of rain may diminish a bit as it pushes
across. The best chance for significant rain making it across will
be over the north where up to a quarter to a half inch of rain may
fall by late Friday. Cooler air aloft associated with the upper
low may result in enough instability to produce isolated
thunderstorms on Friday, mainly over the highlands and north
central areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cutoff low will continue to slowly approach from the west
Friday night into Saturday, then move overhead Saturday night.
Looking quite wet Friday night and Saturday. That said, still a
fair amount of uncertainty on how things progress. Looking into
a bit more detail, there is a weak occluded front that moves
through Friday night into early Saturday with perhaps a weak
triple point low developing. Some uncertainty on how this
evolves and thus the speed/location of the heavier showers and
possible thunderstorms along the front. Then, on Saturday
afternoon as the upper low gets very close as it approaches from
the west, expect showers and storms to increase in coverage
again. Activity tapers off from west to east Saturday night.
All things considered, looking for a soaking rain for many
areas Friday through Saturday evening, with totals ranging from
about a quarter inch to up to around an inch and a half. Hard
to pinpoint where the higher totals will be, as it depends on
exact track of the heavier showers and possible storms, and it`s
too far out to pinpoint this. Not expecting any strong/severe
storms.

Expecting some advection fog, especially along the coast, Friday
night with the moist onshore flow. Some radiation fog possible
Saturday night as the system exits with fairly light winds and
moist low-levels thanks to the recent rain.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level low appears to move east of us by late Sunday, but
there is still some uncertainty on the speed/timing at which the
upper low moves east. This will influence how quickly we dry
out late Sunday into Monday. Likely dry areawide by Monday
evening. Then warmer and drier weather is likely for
Tuesday/Wednesday as upper level ridging builds over the region.
Highs could reach 80 in some places Tuesday to Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions are expected across the area today into tonight
with the exception of some fog Downeast this morning.
Conditions may lower to MVFR or IFR across some southern
locations, especially near the coast, late tonight into early
Friday morning. VFR conditions north and MVFR to IFR conditions
over the south improving to VFR are expected on Friday. Winds
light SW today, light S tonight, then light SE on Friday.


SHORT TERM:
Friday Night...MVFR/IFR in low clouds, rain, and possible fog.
SE wind 5 kts.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR early, improving to MVFR/VFR in the
afternoon. Showers, with possible storms. Variable wind 10 kts
or less.

Saturday Night and Sunday...Patchy fog Saturday night could lead
to local IFR. Then on Sunday, generally VFR Downeast, with MVFR
or VFR north. W/NW wind around 5 kts.

Sunday Night and Monday...Mostly VFR with NW wind 5 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light and seas around 3 ft today, tonight and
Friday. A bit of fog or mist may move over the waters late
tonight into Friday morning.

SHORT TERM: Below small craft advisory through the period. Areas
of fog Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Bloomer/Foisy
Marine...Bloomer/Foisy