851
FXUS61 KCAR 041856
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
256 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes
tonight. High pressure will build south of the area Saturday. A
cold front will approach on Sunday, stall over the area Monday,
then move south Tuesday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes
tonight, while surface ridging builds across the region.
Showers will end this evening with the exiting upper low and
the loss of diurnal heating. Clouds will then decrease
overnight. High pressure centered south of Maine will ridge
northward across the region Saturday with mostly/partly sunny
skies. A warm front will cross the region Saturday night with
partly/mostly cloudy skies. Could also have a chance of showers
across northern areas. Low temperatures tonight will range from
around 50 to the lower 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s
Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will range from the upper
70s to around 80 north, to around 80 to the lower 80s Downeast.
Low temperatures Saturday night will range from around 60 to the
lower 60s across the forecast area.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A slow-moving cold front will be moving from NW to SE through
the area Sunday through Monday. On Sunday, the front will likely
be over or just north of the St John Valley, while on Monday it
moves south to somewhere roughly over central portions of the
forecast area. The front will be the focus of showers and
storms, and possibly locally heavy rain. There is still a fair
amount of uncertainty as to the exact frontal position through
the period, so PoPs aren`t terribly high in any one area, with
generally chance to likely PoPs. Some storms could be on the
stronger side toward Monday, but this is highly conditional.
Temperatures will be very warm/hot areawide on Sunday, then
cooler in the north on Monday but still very warm Downeast.
Dewpoints will be high, making it feel quite uncomfortable, and
looking for a few spots from Bangor to Dover-Foxcroft to
Lincoln teasing heat advisory criteria with heat indices topping
out near or a touch above 90 Sunday and possibly Monday as well
(advisory criteria is 95).
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night into Tuesday, the above-mentioned cold front
continues to slowly sag south, but again, there`s considerable
uncertainty as to its timing. Could still see some showers and
storms Downeast Tuesday, or the activity could be offshore if
the front moves through more quickly. Airmass behind the front
is a bit less muggy and warm, but nothing too dramatic, with
temperatures still near or a bit warmer than average through
Friday. Models are in poor agreement Wednesday through Friday on
the timing of systems. Kept forecast pretty generic with 20-40
PoPs.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Occasional MVFR possible early tonight with showers
ending. Otherwise, generally VFR tonight through Saturday night.
However, occasional MVFR possible across northern areas later
Saturday night with any showers. West/northwest winds 5 to 10
knots tonight, then 10 to 15 knots Saturday. Southwest winds 5
to 10 knots Saturday night.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday...Mainly VFR, though can`t rule out some MVFR in the
north with possible showers/storms. SW wind around 10 kts.

Sunday Night...Mainly VFR, except IFR/MVFR possible near the
coast for places such as Bar Harbor and Eastport. Variable wind
less than 10 kts.

Monday through Monday Night...MVFR/VFR with chance of showers
and storms. Local IFR near the coast. Variable wind 10 kts or
less, except gustier around storms.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR with NW wind up to 10
kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: A period of small craft seas is likely Sunday night
into Monday morning, with SW winds also possibly reaching small
craft levels. Seas could remain close to small craft levels
through Monday night. Otherwise, conditions less than small
craft. Fog likely over the waters Sunday night to early Tuesday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Norcross/Foisy
Marine...Norcross/Foisy