469
FXUS61 KCAR 112309 CCA
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Caribou ME
709 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough exits the region this evening to the
Maritimes. High pressure will build over the area tonight into
Saturday then move east Sunday. A cold front will slowly cross
the region Monday into Tuesday while weakening. High pressure
will cross the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Update...

See updated aviation section.

previous discussion
The upper trough continues to move out through the area and
should eventually exit into the Maritimes this evening. A few
subtle shortwaves on the backside of the trough are contributing
enough forcing for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop
across the area. SPC mesoanalysis shows favorable surface based
instability in excess of 1000 J/kg and some moderate effective
bulk shear. However, storms have been struggling to maintain
intense cores for very long likely due to the large scale
descent associated with the exiting trough and approaching ridge
behind it. Thus, it is unlikely for storms to reach severe
criteria.

Showers and storms should taper off this evening leading to a
dry night. Fog is expected to develop overnight due to clearing
skies and calm winds especially where any storms have produced
precipitation the previous afternoon. Fog should clear out by
mid-morning Saturday and skies should gradually become mostly
sunny with the greatest clearing towards the north. An isolated
shower during the day tomorrow cannot be completely ruled out as
some CAMs suggested but given the subsidence from the high
pressure had too low confidence to add it into the forecast. Dry
conditions prevail Saturday night with patchy fog likely to
develop over the coast and interior Downeast regions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will cross Quebec province Sunday through Sunday night
then begin to cross the forecast area Monday. Surface/upper level
ridging will exit across the Maritimes Sunday into Sunday night,
with surface ridging still extending westward back toward
Maine. Aloft, an upper level disturbance should cross the region
later Sunday into Sunday night. Low clouds/fog are possible
early Sunday. Otherwise, generally expect partly sunny/mostly
cloudy skies north. With support from diurnal heating, could
also have a slight chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms
across mostly northern areas. After morning low clouds/fog
Downeast, expect generally partly sunny skies. A slight
chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist across
mostly northern areas Sunday night. Otherwise, expect
partly/mostly cloudy skies. A cold front will begin to cross the
region Monday. Expect mostly cloudy skies with showers likely,
along with a chance of thunderstorms, across northern areas
Monday. Across Downeast areas, after morning low clouds and fog,
expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance/chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Expect
near normal level temperatures Sunday/Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front should begin to stall and weaken across the forecast
area Monday night. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies along with
decreasing shower/thunderstorm chances. The weakening remnants of
the cold front will remain across the region Tuesday, with a
secondary cold front/trof also possible. Expect partly sunny skies
along with still the slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm Tuesday.
Uncertainty increases later Wednesday into Friday regarding the
timing of a cold front. The location of the cold front will help
influence shower/thunderstorm chances later Wednesday into Friday.
Expect above normal level temperatures Tuesday through Thursday,
with near normal level temperatures Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE...VFR this evening, conditions becoming MVFR/IFR in low
clouds/patchy fog aft 06z, then MVFR/VFR aft 17z. IFR likley
again Sat night. Light variable wind, becoming S 5 to 10 kt Sat
through Sat night.

KCAR...VFR this evening, conditions becoming MVFR/IFR in low
clouds/patchy fog aft 06z, then MVFR/VFR aft 17z. IFR likley
again Sat night. Light variable wind, becoming S 5 to 10 kt Sat
through Sat night.

KPQI..VFR this evening, conditions becoming MVFR/IFR in low
clouds/patchy fog aft 06z, then MVFR/VFR aft 17z. IFR likley
again Sat night. Light variable wind, becoming S 5 to 10 kt Sat
through Sat night.

KHUL...VFR this evening, conditions becoming MVFR/IFR in low
clouds/patchy fog aft 06z, then MVFR/VFR aft 17z. IFR likley
again Sat night. Light variable wind, becoming S 5 to 10 kt Sat
through Sat night.

KBGR...VFR this evening, conditions becoming IFR/LIFR in low
clouds/fog aft 03z, then MVFR aft 17z. LIFR likley Sat night.
Light S wind, becoming S 5 to 10 kt Sat through Sat night.

KBHB...VFR this evening, conditions becoming IFR/LIFR in low
clouds/fog aft 02z, then MVFR aft 17z. LIFR likley Sat night.
Light S wind, becoming S 5 to 10 kt Sat through Sat night.


SHORT TERM:
Sunday...IFR/LIFR early with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR with the slight chance of an afternoon shower or
thunderstorm mostly north. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night...IFR/LIFR with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/thunderstorms mostly north. South
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday...Variable conditions with any showers or
thunderstorms. Also, with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise,
generally VFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots Monday. Southwest/west
winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
Tuesday.

Tuesday night...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...Generally VFR. Occasional MVFR possible late with a
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms north. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory
criteria through Saturday night. Light S/SW flow around 5 kts.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday
through Monday. Patchy fog Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Melanson
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...TWD/Melanson/Norcross
Marine...TWD/Melanson/Norcross