


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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621 FXUS61 KCAR 011824 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 224 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front exits across Maine tonight. Another disturbance and cold front will cross the region Thursday. An upper level low will cross the region Friday. High pressure returns Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will continue to move through the region this evening and exit to the E tonight. For this evening and early tonight, high res simulated reflectivity shows some isolated thunderstorms lasting later than usual due to the cold front extending across the waters. Once the front exits to the E after midnight, rain showers will exit as well. With the moist low levels and calm winds, patchy fog is expected tonight. For Wednesday, the front will drag some showers across the coast before exiting. Upper air model soundings show mid and upper level flow from the SW with W surface flow. This will pipe up warm air into the region boosting temps into the 80s across the region. With the clearing skies in the north and warm temps, convection is expected in the afternoon. Models show some CAPE and steep lapse rates, pulse thunderstorms could pop up in areas that see clearing. However, confidence is low on this so decided to leave thunderstorm chance out of the forecast. For Wednesday night, the next cold front will approach from the W moving into New England after midnight. This will increase cloud cover overnight, keeping temps in the 60s. High res models have a slower front progression, so slowed the rain moving into the area until Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front will push through the forecast area on Thursday, entering the the western border Thursday morning and pushing off the coast through Thursday evening. CAPE values could approach 1000 to even 1500 J/kg through Thursday afternoon, especially if there are breaks in the cloud cover Thursday morning to allow for increased surface heating. Low level lapse rates will steepen as well, again should the surface heat through the morning, and approach 8 C/km. And in the presence of the boundary moving through, bulk shear could sit around 30 to 40 kts. With all of these ingredients together and an inverted-V presentation on forecast soundings with plenty of cool dry air aloft, there is an increased chance for thunderstorm development through Thursday afternoon. Not only that, but these ingredients point towards the potential for a few storms to become strong to severe, with the damaging wind potential being the greatest threat at this time. That said, this is truly all dependent on how well the surface warms in the morning. Should the region remain in dense overcast skies or lingering fog, the lower levels may remain too stable to support later convective organization. Showers and storms will begin to diminish Thursday evening due to lack of diurnal support and the front pushing off the coast. For the day on Friday, an upper level low will move in across the state. Though this will introduce a deep area of vorticity and bring in a cold pool aloft, there remains some uncertainty about thunderstorm coverage on Friday. Recent model trends have slowed how quickly the upper levels cool of, suggesting more stability through the day on Friday. With this trend, there remains a slight chance for thunderstorms across the forecast area on Friday, along with scattered rain showers, but the severity of these storms remains uncertain at this time. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will build in behind the upper level low heading into the weekend, allowing for drier conditions into the day on Saturday. Temperatures will begin to rebound as well, lifting to around average for this time of the year on Saturday. Temperatures will continue to warm into Sunday, potentially rising into the low to mid 80s. Through the day on Sunday and into early next week, there is the potential for another trough of low pressure to push through the area, though timing remains uncertain, along with how robust this system will be. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions this evening and early tonight in rain showers. Isolated TS for all terminals this evening. Conditions improve to VFR after midnight and into Wednesday. W winds 5-10 kts. SHORT TERM: Thurs...VFR early, dropping to MVFR/IFR as a front moves from NW to SE through the day. Rain showers likely, chance for thunderstorms across all terminals, though less likely at the coast. It is possible some thunderstorms could contain damaging winds. SW winds 5 to 10 kts, shifting W to NW behind the front with gusts to 20 kts. Thurs night...Improving to VFR. Winds becoming light and variable. Fri...Generally VFR across all terminals, though brief MVFR possible in any showers or storms. NW winds 5 to 10 kts. Fri night - Sat night...VFR. Winds light and variable. Sun...VFR, dropping towards MVFR/IFR in any showers or thunderstorms. SW winds 5 to 10 kts gusting towards 20 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight and Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are likely to remain below small craft advisory levels through the end of the week and into the weekend. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday evening. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...LaFlash Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...LaFlash/AStrauser Marine...LaFlash/AStrauser