718
FXUS61 KCAR 011626
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1226 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will stay over the region through Friday. A cold
front moves through on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:24 PM Update...Adjusted temperatures down to match the
current conditions. Increased cloud cover for tonight based on
sounding and model guidance. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

Previous Discussion...
Patchy river valley fog will burn off after sunrise early this
morning. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the weather
across Northern and Eastern Maine today. Expect mostly sunny
skies during the day today along with light winds. With 850mb
temperatures ranging from about 4C to 7C, expect highs to mostly
be in the mid to upper 60s. Some warmer spots near Bangor could
approach 70 degrees.

The high will begin to slide east into the Canadian Maritimes
later tonight. Clear skies and light winds early tonight will
allow for radiational cooling. This cooling will be tempered by
increasing clouds in southern and western areas as a weak
frontal boundary approaches. Patchy river valley fog will once
again be possible tonight. It may be a bit more widespread due
to light return flow on the backside of the high. Low
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s in the colder
northern and eastern valleys, with lower to mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...
High pressure will be centered just east of the area during the
day Wednesday. This will allow for southerly flow over the area,
and with low level moisture, morning low clouds may stick around
longer than previous days. The cooler, moister southerly flow
should also allow for somewhat cooler temperatures, with highs
in the low 60s.

Wednesday Night...
Very weak system moves through late Wednesday night from west to
east. Models continue to trend drier with this system, and only
going with 15 to 30 PoPs over the far north, with less
elsewhere. Should be a decent amount of low clouds especially
later Wednesday night, with perhaps some fog as well. Milder
with lows in the mid to upper 40s.

Thursday...
Subtle shift from low level south to southwest flow as the weak
above-mentioned system passes by. This should allow a bit warmer
temperatures Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Also
could see some afternoon sun after morning low clouds dissipate.
No precipitation.

Thursday Night...
Low level southerly flow returns Thursday night and could see
fog and low clouds again later Thursday night. Fairly mild with
lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. No precipitation.

Confidence...
Models overall are in good agreement. Main question is how much
low clouds and fog will be present in the overnight and early
morning hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A more active weather pattern looks to be setting up for the
weekend into early next week.

The next system will begin approaching from the west Friday and
temperatures should be fairly warm with highs in the low 70s. We
are looking at a decent chance of rain late Friday night into
Saturday morning from an upper level shortwave trough and weak
surface cold front moving through from west to east. Have in 50
to 60 percent chance of rain. Doesn`t look like the potential
for that much rain, with something in the neighborhood of a
quarter inch being the most likely result. There is some
uncertainty on the timing, specifically when the rain ends,
whether it`s early vs late Saturday.

Shortwave ridging builds in for Sunday, and decent confidence in
a dry but cool day, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Toward Monday and Tuesday, things get more interesting, but
there is also more model disagreement. Most models have an
amplifying upper trough approaching late Monday. Then some
models pinch off the trough into a strong closed low pressure
somewhere over the Northeast or Gulf of Maine. If this happens,
the threat exists for some fairly heavy rain and decent wind. If
a more progressive solution pans out with limited cutting off
of the upper low, we`d just have a light rain event with minimal
impacts.

Interesting to note that the vast majority of our area has still
not seen a frost, and we are running very late. Both Caribou and
Bangor haven`t even gotten below 40. Caribou is already past the
record which was September 29, and Bangor will set a record for
latest first 30s if they make it to October 8 (they could). No
obvious frosty nights coming up, though the possibility for very
patchy frost exists Tuesday night and Saturday night, mainly in
the north. The growing season is extending long this year. The
lack of cool nights has slowed down the changing of the leaves
and we are running a bit behind on fall colors. The mosquitos
are even still out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly MVFR at Aroostook Terminals early this
morning with low clouds and isolated BCFG. All terminals trend
to VFR this morning and remain there through this evening. BCFG
possible late tonight, mainly at BGR, HUL, and PQI. E-SE winds
around 5 kts today and tonight.


SHORT TERM:

Wednesday through Friday...
Generally VFR in the mid morning to early evening hours, with
variable conditions late night and early morning hours with
areas of low clouds and fog leading to intermittent MVFR or
lower. South winds generally less than 10 kts.

Friday night and Saturday...VFR, becoming MVFR/IFR late Friday
night into early Saturday in rain, then possibly improving to
VFR late Saturday. S wind 5 kts becoming NW 5-10 kts late
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria today and tonight. NE winds 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20
kts on the outer waters during the day today, diminishing
tonight. Wave heights will be 1 to 3 feet on all waters. Patchy
fog may reduce visibility on the waters early this morning and
again late tonight.


SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft levels through the
weekend with patchy fog. Likelihood of small craft conditions
Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Clark/Foisy
Marine...Clark/Foisy