546
FXUS61 KCAR 181155
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
755 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds down from southeastern Canada through
Tuesday night, then slowly exits to the east through Wednesday.
High pressure builds across the region Thursday into Friday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Update...
Updated near term aviation discussion.

Previous Discussion...
Front moves southeast across the waters, as associated trough
axis over and out of Maine by morning time. Winds behind the
front are a bit gusty from the north/northwest today. Cooler
temperatures move in behind the front, with 850mb temperatures
around 4-6C throughout Maine. High pressure gradually builds in
today into tomorrow, bringing a period of sunny and dry
conditions. Daytime highs today in the 60s for northern and
central Maine, and mid 70s along the coast.

Overnight, skies may become partially cloudy, but mostly clear
in the north. Radiational cooling could occur in the breaks in
the clouds, and given the already pretty cool low-level
temperatures, overnight lows expected in the upper-30s to
low-40s in the north, and upper-40s Downeast. Winds generally
become light and variable overnight. On Tuesday mostly partially
cloudy, with daytime highs in the upper-60s to low-70s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the region Tuesday
night, with an inverted trof extending toward western portions
of the forecast area. Aloft, an upper trof will approach. Expect
partly/mostly cloudy skies Tuesday night, with the slight
chance of showers late across northwest areas. The inverted
surface trof will remain across the region while weakening
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Aloft, the upper trof will
cross the region later Wednesday into Thursday. The upper level
trof will help to begin steering Hurricane Erin out to sea,
well southeast of the region, Thursday while high pressure
re-builds across the region. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies
Wednesday through Wednesday night along with a chance of
showers. Expect partly sunny skies along with decreasing shower
chances Thursday. At this point, the primary impact from Erin
for the forecast area appears to be increasing long period waves
starting Wednesday night and building through Thursday which
should lead to hazardous beach conditions. Temperatures will be
at slightly below normal levels Wednesday/Thursday.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain across the region Thursday night into
Friday with generally mostly clear skies. Hurricane Erin will
curve out to sea to the southeast of Nova Scotia Friday.
However, long period waves will impact the region Thursday
night into Friday which should lead to hazardous beach
conditions. High pressure will begin to exit across the
Maritimes Saturday, with a disturbance possibly starting to
approach late. Expect partly cloudy skies Saturday into Saturday
night. Will also have a chance of showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms. The timing of the possible disturbance remains
uncertain for Sunday. Generally expect partly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers, slight chance of thunderstorms,
Sunday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level
temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR today through Tuesday. However,
variable conditions possible with any patchy fog late tonight.
North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots
today, then 5 to 10 knots tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Generally VFR. A chance of
showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR. A slight chance of showers early. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds at Small Craft Advisory conditions until early
this morning. Seas generally 4 ft or below over all waters.
Winds from the N around 10-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts.
Winds gradually relax throughout the day, becoming NW at 5-10
kts by this evening. Shift to the SW tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Swells from Hurricane Erin will begin to
reach the waters later Wednesday with building seas which will
then persist into Friday leading to small craft advisory
conditions Wednesday night into Friday. A chance of showers
later Wednesday into Wednesday night, with a slight chance of
showers early Thursday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/Norcross