528
FXUS61 KCAR 090923
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
423 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in for this weekend. A warm front
approaches Sunday night and passes through on Monday, followed
by a cold front on Tuesday. High pressure returns on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The 500mb trof is working east in the North Atlantic today as a
surface 1030mb high works into New York State. The pressure
gradient will slowly weaken today but still expecting a decently
mixed NW flow today. The stronger LLJ is working east of the
area today but winds up to 925mb still in the 25-30kt range and
expecting to mix portions of those winds down today. Will
continue the Wind Advisory over western zones through this
morning but gusts beyond the end time will still be 25-35mph
across the area with perhaps up to 40mph in the higher terrain.
In addition to the gusty winds expecting relative humidities to
drop into the 30-40% range this afternoon so a dry day expected.
High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 30s across
the North (coldest in the North Woods). Low to mid 40s for the
Central Highlands to the Downeast coast thanks to the downslope
winds off the Longfellow Mtns. Tonight, surface high pressure
will drift SE of New York City and expecting the gradient to
dramatically weaken and just light winds tonight shifting W-SW.
Temperatures under clear skies will bottom out in the low to mid
20s across much of the area with around 30F at the Downeast
shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the area on Sunday, with clear skies
to start the day, gradually becoming more overcast into Sunday
evening as a low pressure system approaches from the west.

An upper level trough will cross the New England region Sunday
night through the early part of the work week, bringing the next
chance for precipitation into the forecast area. A warm front
will lift across the CWA first, moving through the area during
the day on Monday as the parent low begins to lift north through
Quebec. Confidence is increasing in this storm track, though
GEFS members do bring this parent low further south into the
forecast area, while EPS and CMCE members keep the parent low
north and leave the entire FA in the warm sector behind the warm
front Monday night. Since SW warm air advection will mostly take
place overnight Monday night, mild low temperatures are possible
with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A few snow showers could mix in with the rain across the Crown
of Maine Monday morning, but the extent to which cold air is
available for a shift to snow will depend on the main low track.
If the low pressure tracks north of the state, less cold air
will be available and the precip type could be all rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mild temperatures from Monday night probably will not last
long into the day on Tuesday, as a cold front moves through the
forecast area through the day on Tuesday. Though less moisture
will be available with this feature as dry air rushes in behind
the boundary, another round of rain showers are possible. Most
notably will be a shift in wind direction to out of the
northwest and, due to a tight pressure gradient aloft, a return
of gusty winds at the surface. Winds could gust 25 to 30 mph at
least with this event as it is currently forecast to move
through during peak diurnal heating hours, increasing the mixing
potential for any LLJ development aloft.

Winds should begin to relax through the middle of the week as
high pressure returns through the day on Wednesday. The next
low pressure system may begin to approach through the end of the
week, but there is still plenty of timing and spatial
uncertainty with this next low, as it could either come from a
retrograding baroclinic low from the north Atlantic, or from
another longwave trough approaching from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: FEW-SCT MVFR cigs this morning at FVE & CAR otherwise
VFR cigs. -SHSN and -SHRA occurring before 12z this morning in
northern most terms. Windy conditions this morning with NW winds
10-20kt with gusts up to 40kt. LLWS is occurring at some terms
this morning. Today, expecting VFR becoming SKC this afternoon.
NW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 35kt. Tonight, winds relax and
gradually shift W-SW 5-10kt. SKC is expected tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Sun...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sun night...VFR early, falling to MVFR/IFR from south to north
as rain showers move in. S winds around 5 kts.

Mon...IFR with LIFR possible for all terminals. Rain likely.
SE winds around 5 kts shifting SW 5 to 10 kts in the afternoon.

Mon night...Conditions improving towards VFR Downeast and MVFR
at northern terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Tues - Tues night...VFR/MVFR for Downeast terminals, MVFR to
potentially IFR for northern terminals. Greatest chance for
rains showers across northern terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts
rapidly shifting NW 10 to 15 kts behind cold front, with gusts
increasing to 25 to 30 kts.

Wed...VFR with SKC at all terminals. N winds 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale Warning remains in effect till 10AM EST for NW
winds 20-30kt with gusts up to 40kt and seas 4-7ft. This
afternoon expecting the need of a Small Craft Advisory into the
early evening for winds gusting up to 30kt. Seas will be
subsiding this afternoon into the evening back to 1-3ft.
Tonight, winds/seas will be below SCA conditions with winds
falling below 20kt. Seas will become 1-2ft after midnight.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts may hover around 20 to 25 kts Sunday
through Monday as a low pressure system approaches then crosses
the waters through the early part of the week. Wind gusts could
then approach gale strength Tuesday into Wednesday in response
to the passage of a strong cold front. Seas through this time
may remain around 3 to 5 ft, increasing towards 5 to 6 ft behind
each frontal passage.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ001-003-004-
     010.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Sinko/AStrauser