587
FXUS61 KCAR 300554
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
154 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pres will remain over the area into early this week. A
cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, then cross
the region early Thursday. A weather disturbance will approach
from the west on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
145 am update...Refined fog forecast for the rest of the night.
METSAT imagery indicates most is forming over lakes and river
valleys. While the cold front is providing drier air aloft, the
boundary layer remains moist enough to support the shallow fog
into daybreak. Not anticipating the need for any advisories.

Previous discussion:
Weak cold front from Quebec approaches this evening and then crosses
the region tonight. With little in the way of moisture or forcing
along the front, not expecting any precipitation with its passage.
With somewhat drier air behind the front and stronger winds just
above the surface, fog should not be as big of an issue tonight
as it was last night across the north. That being said, will
continue to include mention of patchy fog, as some guidance
continues to hint at the possibility. There actually is more of
a threat of fog for the Bangor region and Downeast, as the front
does not arrive there until well after midnight. Lows tonight
will generally be in the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. Monday will
be mainly sunny day as high pressure builds across to our
north. With more in the way of sunshine expected and little
change in air mass in the wake of the front, highs will approach
the 70 degree mark in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday Night through Tuesday Night...
Upper level ridge builds over the area Monday night into
Tuesday, with surface high pressure just to our north Monday
night, with the surface high sliding southeast to New Brunswick
Tuesday night. All this means quiet, dry weather Monday night
through Tuesday night, with light winds. With the east flow
around the high pressure, there could be a few clouds coming in
from the Canadian Maritimes especially Monday night and early
Tuesday. But overall, generally partly cloudy to mostly clear
skies Monday night through Tuesday night. Temperatures will be
fairly close to average. Fog might be an issue Monday night
and/or Tuesday night, but low confidence in how much, as there
may be some stratus limiting radiational cooling a bit. Put in
patchy fog for most areas for now.

Wednesday...
Next system approaches from the west, with a chance of rain mainly
in the Western North Woods late in the day, but increasing
clouds areawide. The high pressure also slides off further to
the east Wednesday, so we will have an increasing south breeze.
Highs a bit cooler Wednesday due to increasing marine influence,
with highs mainly in the low 60s.

Confidence...
Models are in good agreement through Wednesday. Biggest challenge
is how much, if any, overnight fog occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Good amount of confidence in a weak system moving through
Wednesday night, which will be further weakening as it moves
through. Models have backed off some in amount of precipitation,
and much of the southern portions of the area could stay dry,
while the north will likely just get some light rain. Most areas
that do get any rain will be under a tenth of an inch.

Good confidence in dry weather Thursday and Friday with
temperatures fairly close to average. However, forecast
confidence and model agreement drops off precipitously Friday
night through the weekend. Most models/ensembles have fast
westerly flow through the area with fairly active weather, but
there is poor agreement in timing of systems, as well as in the
amplitude of the approaching upper level trough. Have chance of
precipitation in the forecast for the weekend with temperatures
cooling down a bit, but again, confidence is quite low and much
of this could change.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Very little in the way of change to the forecast
philosophy with the 00z Tafs. There remains uncertainty
regarding the potential for patchy fog to once again develop
later tonight. The greatest probability of fog will be at
BGR/BHB, where IFR is possible for a time after midnight, prior
to the frontal passage.

At the Aroostook terminals, fog appears less likley tonight, thus no
mention of reduced visibility in the 00Z TAF forecast for those
terminals. That being said, if all goes wrong, worst case
scenario could be a period of MVFR or lower visibilities 03z to
07z.

Otherwise, VFR is expected through Monday. Light and variable
wind late this evening becoming N to NE 5 to 10 kt overnight
through Monday.

SHORT TERM:
Patchy fog is possible Monday night and Tuesday night, but
confidence is low on where and if this occurs. Daytime
conditions will generally be VFR Tuesday through Friday. A
period of MVFR conditions is possible Wednesday night with light
rain, mainly in the north. Winds will generally be light Monday
night through Friday, although south wind around 10 kts is
likely during the day Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Monday.
Patchy fog could reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM late tonight
through early Monday morning.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be below small craft advisory levels
through the period. Patchy marine fog is possible as well.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/TWD
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...CB/TWD/Foisy
Marine...CB/TWD/Foisy