692
FXUS61 KCAR 200335
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1135 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will
build down from Eastern Canada Friday into the weekend while
low pressure remains well off the coast. High pressure will
remain over and northeast of the area into the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
11:35 PM Update...The sky is mostly cloudy across the area.
Raised temps around a degree with the cloudy sky preventing
cooling. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. The sky should
remain mostly cloudy overnight and then begin to clear from the
north toward morning.

Previous Discussion...
The large low pressure system over the waters will continue to
influence the region to the south as the low becomes fairly
stationary due to the upper level ridge. Kept isolated showers
across coastal Downeast Friday, mainly over Hancock county due
to the NE flow. Temps will be much cooler with the NE flow and
cooler airmass. Expect low 70s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The area will remain between high pressure to the northeast over
the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and an area of low pressure southeast
of southern New England. High pressure will slowly drift south
over the rest of the area by the end of the weekend. Initially,
showers will remain possible along the southernmost coastal
areas and islands, with clearing expected later in the weekend.
Northern Maine will remain partly to mostly clear and dry. With
a cooler air mass in place, clearing and light winds will allow
temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 40s across the north
each night, with patchy river valley fog developing and
dissipating during the early morning hours. High temperatures
will be much cooler than the previous week, but still near to
above normal, ranging from the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through
much of the period as anomalously high heights persist across
eastern Canada, favoring surface high pressure across the
region. Recent guidance has delayed any chance of precipitation
to at least Wednesday, with most models holding off until
Thursday as an upper level trough is projected to cross the
Northeastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR across northern areas overnight, then VFR
Friday. Isolated showers through late evening. Across Downeast
areas, generally MVFR/IFR overnight through early Friday with
LIFR also possible along the Downeast coast. Isolated showers
overnight into Friday. VFR Downeast Friday afternoon. Across
northern areas, east/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots overnight
through Friday. Across Downeast areas east/northeast winds 5 to
10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight. Northeast
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Friday.

SHORT TERM: Friday night to Tuesday: Predominantly VFR. Brief
reductions to IFR or lower are possible in patchy river valley
fog, primarily at northern airports such as PQI. A short period
of MVFR is also possible Sunday morning with
cumulus/stratocumulus development. Winds will be strongest
Saturday and Sunday afternoons with NE gusts to around 15 kts
possible at BGR and BHB. Otherwise, light winds are expected
through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of
the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, from
midnight tonight through Friday. Areas of fog through early
morning. Isolated/scattered showers overnight through Friday.

SHORT TERM: Winds will gradually subside below advisory levels
over the outer waters Friday night into Saturday, but seas of 4
to 6 feet may persist, especially over southern portions of the
waters. Conditions subside below advisory levels across all
waters by Sunday as high pressure builds across the waters.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides combined with a modest storm surge from
low pressure to the south will lead to minor tidal flooding at
the high tides around 1 PM Friday and 1PM Saturday. The
southernmost east facing islands and peninsulas will be most
subject to erosion, but most areas will see little wave action
due to the wind direction relative to the coastline. Areas
further south along the Maine coast into southern New England
will have a greater coastal flooding threat with more onshore
flow.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash/Bloomer
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...LaFlash/MStrauser
Marine...LaFlash/MStrauser
Tides/Coastal Flooding...