383
FXUS61 KCAR 111842
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
242 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain ridged southeast of the region
through Tuesday night. A cold front approaches from the
northwest on Wednesday, then crosses the area Thursday. High
pressure then builds down from Quebec behind the front through
Friday. High pressure will shift overhead Saturday as a cold front
approaches from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Hot evening this evening with temperatures in the 90s falling
back into the 80s for several hours. There will be many
locations well into the 70s by midnight tonight. It will take
all night to get some relief into the mid to upper 60s, cooler
at the shoreline. Very muggy and uncomfortable night for those
without cooling. NWS experimental heat risk stays in the
moderate to major category tonight given the continued muggy
conditions which can impact heat-sensitive groups, however some
relief thanks to 60s for temperatures but will take time to get
there. Winds are light and variable overnight so with calm
conditions and moist PBL will add patchy to areas of fog
tonight. Downeast that fog along Route 1 corridor to the
shoreline may be dense in spots.

Tomorrow the 500mb ridge is slowly starting to breakdown thanks
to an upper level trof approaching over Ontario. However, it
will be yet another hazy, hot and humid day with 850mb temps
around +19 to +21C over the area. This will result in widespread
major heat risk conditions. High temperatures will be near the
NBM 50th percentile in spots especially areas that struggle to
mix well. Highs in the low to mid 90s north, mid 90s for the
Bangor Region to Dover-Fox and NE to Lincoln and Danforth. Upper
80s to low 90s between Route 1 and Route 9 Downeast. Along the
immediate coastline given the sea breeze expecting 70s on the
islands and 80s along the shore of the mainland. Once again
expecting heat index values to reach 95-99F tomorrow and will
continue the Heat Advisory as is through 8PM Tuesday evening.
S-SW winds generally 5-10mph tomorrow except may get a gust to
15mph with the seabreeze at the shoreline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Wednesday: A large cold front will approach from the west.
Clouds should gradually move in throughout the day, but not
before the sunny skies quickly increase temps into the mid 80s
by late morning. Once the clouds move in by the afternoon, temps
should level out in the upper 80s. Models are in good agreement
with the bulk of the rain moving into the region from the west
by the afternoon. The main concern for Wednesday is the
increasing instability ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are
expected with the rain. Upper air models soundings show more
CAPE with steepening lapse rates. Heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible, but confidence is low as of this update.

Wednesday night: Rain showers and thunderstorms should
gradually decrease with the frontal passage through the region.
Extended models show the front moving off the coast by early
Thursday morning. With the thicker cloud deck sticking around,
temps are expected to stay in the mid 60s for the night.

Thursday: The cold front passage should usher in high pressure
and a cooler airmass. Expect rain showers to exit, skies to
gradually clear, and temps to climb into the upper 70s to low
80s with breezy W winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure should remain in the region for the rest of the
week into Saturday. Temps are expected to cool back into the
normal temp range for this time of year. By Sunday, models are
in good agreement with the next cold front moving in. Showers
and thunderstorms expected through the afternoon, then clearing
out by Sunday night. Cooler temps and high pressure expected by
the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...VFR tonight. TEMPO added for BR/FG
between 07-11z for reduced vsby. Light and variable winds
tonight. Tomorrow expect VFR with light and variable winds.
Tomorrow night generally VFR but BCFG is possible again after
06z.

Southern Terms...VFR this evening. IFR/LIFR for BR/FG at BHB
after 01z tonight and 06z for BGR. Winds calm tonight. IFR/LIFR
improves after 11z tomorrow and VFR expected tomorrow. Winds
light and variable becoming S 5-10kt in the afternoon. Tomorrow
night BCFG/FG is possible again after 03z.

SHORT TERM: Wed-Thu...MVFR in rain showers and possible
thunderstorms. S winds 5-10 kts, switching to W on Thu.

Thu night-Sat...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts, then SW on Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below SCA criteria through tomorrow night.
Light SW winds tonight becoming S tomorrow. Seas 1-3ft tonight
becoming 1-2ft tomorrow. Fog will reduce vsby at times below
1/2NM overnight improving to 1-3NM tomorrow AM. Sea surface
water temperatures from the Washington County coast out 25NM and
east to the Hague Line are 53-57F including Passamaquoddy Bay.
Water temperatures from the Hancock County coast out 25NM
including Penobscot Bay are ranging from 55-60F with the warmest
waters out 25NM into the Gulf of Maine waters. Central portions
of the Gulf of Maine waters >25NM are running 60-65F.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
through this time period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible in some locations both
today and Tuesday.

Record Highs for Tuesday Aug 12:

Caribou: 93 in 1944, forecast high 93
Houlton: 92 in 2020, forecast high 93
Millinocket: 94 in 1944, forecast high 94
Bangor: 100 in 1944, forecast high 94

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ001-002-005-006-
     011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Sinko/LaFlash
Marine...Sinko/LaFlash
Climate...Sinko/LaFlash