856
FXUS61 KCAR 040236
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1036 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak shortwave exits overnight with high pressure on
Thursday. An occluded front passing through on Friday. A
secondary cold front moves through the area Saturday with high
pressure building in behind it for early next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Update...
An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes overnight,
with surface/upper ridging building late. Patchy fog will
develop overnight. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy/mostly clear
skies overnight. Low temperatures will range from the upper 40s
to around 50 north, to the lower to mid 50s Downeast. Have
updated to adjust for current conditions along with overnight
temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Tomorrow, ridging builds back in, leading to dry and calm
conditions. Mostly clear to partially cloudy skies. Southerly
winds. Deep trough from the west moves east toward New England,
with an associated cold front. Rain ahead of the front start to
push in late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Rain moves in
from west to east. Southerly flow continues to cause some low-
stratus and fog along the Downeast region and coastline.
Overnight lights in the 50s throughout northern and central
Maine.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, a pre-frontal trough will approach from the west,
bringing showers to the western portion of Maine. This trough
will weaken as it moves into the upper level ridge, so showers
will take a while to move across the region, also becoming less
widespread as they do. Winds will increase in southwesterly flow
ahead of the main front, so have increased winds slightly
beginning Saturday morning from the NBM. On Saturday, the main
front will amplify and approach the region, bringing a period
of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall across the area. This
will set up in a relatively narrow band, and there is a moderate
amount of uncertainty in location. This means that the spread
in potential QPF is fairly wide, in particular for any point
location. However, confidence in wetting rainfall occurring
somewhere across the region is moderate to high. During the day
on Saturday, instability will increase in the main rain band,
creating the possibility of embedded thunderstorms. This may
enhance localize rainfall amounts. By Saturday evening, the
chance for thunderstorms will decrease with the rapid loss of
daylight.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rainfall will continue Saturday night, slowly progressing
eastward. By Sunday morning, the main cold front will move
through and rain will become lighter and more showery in nature.
This will start a general cooling trend for the next several
days, with highs only reaching the mid-60s to low 70s and lows
dipping into the mid-40s to upper 30s by Monday morning. After
showers dissipate on Sunday, ridging will return, bringing quiet
weather through mid-week.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Variable conditions with any fog overnight.
Otherwise, VFR overnight. VFR Thursday through early Thursday
night. Variable conditions with any fog later Thursday night. A
slight chance/chance of showers later Thursday night. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots overnight. South/southeast winds 10 to 15
knots Thursday, then 5 to 10 knots Thursday night.

KBGR/KBHB: Variable conditions with any fog overnight through
early Thursday. Otherwise, VFR overnight through early Thursday
night. Variable conditions with any fog later Thursday night.
South winds 5 to 10 knots overnight. South/southeast winds 10
to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday, then 5 to 10
knots Thursday night.

SHORT TERM: Friday...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR/LIFR early especially at
southern terminals where patchy fog is possible. Increasing
shower chances with the greatest likelihood of precipitation at
northern terminals. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Showers likely at
northern terminals. South/southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR especially for southern
terminals. Rain with isolated thunderstorms possilbe in the afternoon at
HUL/BGR/BHB. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up
to 25 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR especially for
southern terminals. Rain. Variable winds around 5 kts.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers. West
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR. West winds around 5 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight
through Thursday night. Patchy fog both tonight and Thursday
night.

SHORT TERM: Winds may approach small craft levels on Friday
through Saturday ahead of the main front. Saturday night, winds
will decrease below 25 kts behind the front, but seas will
remain close to 5 ft through Saturday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Brennan
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...Norcross/LF
Marine...Norcross/LF