063
FXUS61 KCAR 222325
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
625 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure to the south of the area move east
tonight. A trough moves through the area at the end of the
week. Weak high pressure returns Friday through Saturday before
a series of weather disturbances move through the area early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6:25 PM Update: Satellite pictures show a clear sky across the
CWA early this evening. High clouds are visible upstream in
Quebec and western New England that will begin to slowly filter
into the area later this evening and overnight. The combination
of a clear sky and very light/calm wind has allowed temperatures
to rapidly drop with most of the northern valleys now below
zero, and 3 to 8 degrees below the forecast temperatures at
23Z. Have made adjustments to lower the hourly temperatures and
the forecast lows for tonight. Expect that most lows will be
reached late this evening, but perhaps not until around or
shortly after midnight in the far east. Other than temperature
adjustments and a few tweaks to the sky grids, no significant
changes are planned at this time.

Previous discussion:
Low-level surface high to our south begins to move east,
introducing a vertically stacked longwave trough from the mid-
west into the region. Cold air gets advected into Maine,
supporting a little more time in the single digits for the near
term temperatures. Low levels stay relatively moist throughout
tonight into tomorrow, but for the most part, skies stay
relatively clear with a few clouds popping in during the
day/evening. Moisture is advected into the mid-levels tonight,
which will bring in some clouds, which are forecast to stop
temperatures from plummeting too fast tonight. Since clouds come
in from the west and winds will stay relatively light, forecast
has northeast Aroostook county to have some more time to
radiationally cool. Expect low temperatures tonight in the
single digits along the coast, and around five below in the
north.

Tomorrow, expect overcast skies and a chance for snow in
the far north and along the coast. Currently forecast to see
some banded snow possible over the waters, but some models are
showing a possibility for coastal areas, specifically Washington
county coast, to get clipped and receive an inch or two of snow
tomorrow into tomorrow night. Theres favorable convergence and
lift in the area, so current guidance is favoring some snow
development. Expect high temperatures to be in the teens in the
north, and high 20s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak low pressure associated with an upper level shortwave to
our west will be weakening but some flurries/snow showers could
persist into Thursday night, mostly in northern Aroostook
county. These should clear out by midnight and some weak high
pressure should start to build in Friday and persist through
Saturday. Clouds start to clear out by Friday throughout the day
leading to mostly sunny skies for Saturday across much of the
region. Min temperatures remain low Thursday and Friday night,
approaching zero across much of northern and eastern Maine.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level troughing persists over the region through early
next week. Several shortwave troughs approaching the region
from the NW may affect the region Sunday night. Next week, the
first wave approaches the region Sunday bringing the chance for
some light snow in the afternoon and evening, mostly to
northern parts of Maine. Likely a low impact event but can`t
rule out a quick dusting to an inch.

Another shortwave trough approaches from the NW Tuesday night
with another chance for light snow through early Wednesday
morning. Again, it is possible to receive a dusting to an inch
but nothing major.

Temperatures are currently predicted to warm Sunday through
early next week which will be aided by any southerly flow ahead
of the shortwaves moving through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight with light and variable wind, becoming
S around 5 knots. On Thursday, mainly VFR at the Aroostook
terminals, but local MVFR possible in the afternoon in light
snow. The best chance of light snow will be at KFVE. S wind 5 to
10 knots. VFR Downeast tonight and Thursday, but a chance of
MVFR in light snow at KBHB in the afternoon. Confidence was not
high, but a PROB30 was introduced with the 00Z Tafs from 17-21Z.

SHORT TERM: VFR with light winds around 5 mph through Saturday
night. Winds increase to 5-10 mph with gusts 15-20 mph through
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small craft conditions forecast Thursday. Expect
NW/W wind, becoming S/SW late tonight and Thursday. Light
freezing spray tonight. Potential for some snow over the waters
tomorrow, that may cause localized reduced visibility.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions forecast to end early Thursday night. Waves
decrease Thursday night to 2 to 4 ft through Saturday. SE winds
becoming NW at 10-15 kts Friday through Saturday with a few
gusts 20-25 kts. Possible light freezing spray Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday for
     ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EST Thursday for
     ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan/CB
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...Brennan/CB/Melanson
Marine...Brennan/CB/Melanson