489
FXUS61 KCAR 121035
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
635 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure crosses the region today and tonight, then moves
southeast of the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Another low
approaches on Thursday and cross the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
635AM Update: Radar scans show rain showers over Quebec but
very little rain has fallen. Decided to adjust the weather
forecast to bring shower chances down across the north.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks good.

Previous Discussion...
The upper level ridge will settle over the region today and
tonight. For today, a mid level shortwave will ride the jet
stream down Quebec and across the north today. High res models
show that scattered to isolated rain showers will move across
the north from late morning to the afternoon. The question will
be how much rain this showers will produce. Upper air model
soundings show a fairly dry lower level, thus the majority of
the rain most likely will not hit the ground. Nevertheless,
decided to include the higher chances in the north with more
confidence in rain. Expect cloudy skies with temps in the low
60s.

For tonight, the ridge will push the shortwave to the E, making
for mostly clear skies and calm winds. This will be another
night of cooler temps in the north. However, the south will see
warmer temps in the low 40s due to the warmer low level airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging will strengthen over Maine Tuesday into
Wednesday, starting a warming and drying trend. Tuesday will
have some lingering high clouds from the low retreating to the
east and high temperatures will only reach the upper 60s to low
70s. Then on Wednesday, warming will begin in earnest as skies
clear and the peak of the ridge moves overhead. Temps will rise
to the upper 70s in the south and the low 80s in the north as
westerly flow and 850 hPa temps near 13C combine. This is likely
to be the hottest day of the week, but RH values around 40 to
45 percent will keep the unseasonable heat bearable. Along the
coast, a sea breeze will keep temps much cooler, especially with
the cold water temps at this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday will also be a hot day for spring, with temps in the
70s or near 80 further inland. However, the ridge axis will have
shifted slightly eastward and clouds will begin to move in over
the southwestern portion of the forecast area. This will dampen
daytime heating slightly, and highs will be up to 5 degrees
cooler than Wednesday for Bangor and Interior Downeast.

On Friday, a moderate shortwave will cross the region, with
enough instability to produce afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. This will be the lead in for a change in the
pattern through the weekend, with showers continuing through
Sunday as an upper level approaches. Sunday looks to be the most
unstable day, with some cooler air approaching at the
midlevels. This may trigger thunderstorms over the eastern edge
of the state in the afternoon. Temperatures during this period
will cool, with Friday and Saturday reaching the upper 60s to
low 70s, and Sunday becoming more seasonable with highs in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for all terminals today and tonight.
Today, WSW winds 5-10 kts. Tonight, light N winds.


SHORT TERM:

Tues thru Thur night...VFR. W wind becoming SW to S
wind 5 to 10 kts.

Fri...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon showers across the
north. Afternoon thunderstorms possible at northern sites. SE
winds 5 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions today
and tonight. A few gusts up to 25 kts are possible across the
outer waters this afternoon.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through
the short term. Seas 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LaFlash
Short Term...LF
Long Term...TWD/LF
Aviation...LaFlash/LF
Marine...LaFlash/LF