045
FXUS61 KCAR 071114
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
614 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface rough will move off the coast this morning. High pressure
will build in from the west this afternoon into Friday. A cold
front moves across the area late Friday. High pressure will
approach on Saturday and slide south of the region Sunday. A
frontal system moves into the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:14 AM Update: The biggest forecast challenge today remains
the amount of cloud cover. Based on satellite pictures and
observations expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky this morning
across the FA. The clouds will likely to give way to increasing
amounts of sunshine Downeast this afternoon with a downsloping
wind. Temperatures have been slow to fall overnight Downeast
and current temperatures are not far from forecast highs, but
expect that temperatures will not rise too much today Downeast.
Also made some adjustments to remove the isolated showers along
and near the coast.

Previous discussion:
A seasonable air mass across the FA today with a surface trough
along the coast to move offshore this morning as high pressure
builds into the Ohio Valley. The surface high will build east
tonight as low pressure crosses James Bay and works across
central Quebec.

Temperatures will be close to average today north and a little
above average Downeast. Highs will top out in the low to mid
40s north to the mid 50s in Bangor and along the coast. Lows
tonight will be near 30F north to the mid 30s in Bangor and
Downeast.

A northwest wind will gust to 20 to 25 mph today, and
the pressure gradient between the low to the north and high to
the south will prevent the low levels from decoupling tonight. A
rain or snow shower could try to work into far northwest
sections of the FA toward 12Z Friday in advance of an
approaching cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Friday will feature a SW wind to start the day as a warm front
works into New Brunswick in the AM. Skies will be mostly cloudy
as a cold front will rapidly drop down from Quebec to the
Maine/Quebec border by mid morning and progress through the CWA
and clearing the coast by sunset. Expecting some isolated to
scattered rain showers with the front mainly confined to the
northern 1/2 of the CWA since the front is rather dry. As winds
shift W-NW behind the front the low deepens north of the Gaspe
Peninsula resulting in tightening pressure gradient. Expecting
winds to increase 15-25mph with gusts up to 40mph especially at
higher elevations, cannot rule out 45mph at observation
locations like the Greenville Airport and Frenchville Airport.
The winds remain gusty through the night with strong cold air
advection out of Quebec but the overall airmass isn`t very cold
so temperatures bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s north and
low to mid 30s south on Sat AM.

Saturday through the day the pressure gradient gradually weakens
into the afternoon as the 500mb ridge axis works into
Ontario/Quebec. Mostly sunny skies but into the afternoon the
mixing layer increases up to 850-825mb. This will result in
winds still gusting 20-30mph from the NW and dew points falling
into the upper teens to low 20s. Minimum RHs will fall into the
upper 30s to low 40s percent range in the afternoon. Given the
gusty winds, dry conditions and still relatively dry grounds in
places that see no rainfall will have to watch fire weather
conditions. Thankfully high temperatures will only top out in
the upper 30s to low 40s across the north with mid 40s in the
Central Highlands to the Downeast coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall...looking into the latest modeled teleconnections
suggests very little shift in the weather pattern is expected
for the long term heading into mid November. +PNA currently with
ridging in the west begins to weaken and turn negative heading
into mid month with much of the GEFS ensemble members going at
least -0.5SD. The current +NAO with a more zonal jet stream over
the Atlantic will trend back towards neutral. NAO is a struggle
with huge range differences in the GEFS ensemble members between
+1SD and -2SD. NAO going negative could drive much colder air
south into the Eastern US but with a negative PNA that is
unlikely given the lack of a ridge in the western US with a
return of troughing out west. A neutral NAO and -PNA within our
ENSO neutral regime suggests continues temperature averages
above normal with no strong signal for precip as the pattern
will be progressive suggestion a lack of precip.

Sat Night...Good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF/GDPS there
will be a 1028mb surface high just off the coast of Long Island
New York. This will put the CWA on the northern side of the
500mb ridge axis. Not expecting a full relax of the winds but
significantly lower than what will take place on Saturday. This
will result in a stronger low level inversion to set up and
temperatures fall back into the 20s across much of the area with
30F readings at the shoreline under mainly clear skies.

Sun...Surface high shifts well SE of the Gulf of Maine waters
as moisture advects in aloft through the day resulting in
increasing high cloud cover. Winds turning W-SW will result in
highs in the upper 40s for most except low 50s for Bangor and
the coast and low 40s in the North Woods.

Sun Night - Mon (Veterans Day)...Next weather maker on tap.
Progressive 500mb low will track Sun night into Mon AM into
Quebec to the Champlain Valley of Vermont. GFS/GDPS/ECMWF and
ICON is rather good agreement on placement with a surface low
beneath the 500mb low nearly vertically stacked. A warm front
will be lifting north through New England into Monday AM and
will push NE into Maine. Good agreement that a triple point low
will likely develop over Maine as it tracks along the Midcoast
to Downeast coast through the day Monday. This system is
progressive and with no cold air this will be a rain event for
the CWA. As the shortwave progresses over Maine during the day
Monday expect the triple point low to take over as the primary
surface low with upper level divergence supporting strengthening.
Expecting showers late Sun Night into Mon AM to turn into Light
Rain during the day Monday and will taper to showers Mon night
as the low tracks into the Maritimes and deepens. Kind of a
waste if you are a snow lover...Mon AM temperatures will be
above freezing for most as warm air advects northward. Expect
highs Mon in the low 40s north and around 50-53F for Bangor to
the Downeast coast including the Route 9 corridor in interior
Downeast. Unfortunately for any outdoor Veterans Day activities
expecting a lot of gloomy, cool and wet weather across the CWA.

Tue...Weak open shortwave will be passing through with NNW flow
which will result in a partly sunny day with a bunch of clouds
around. Cannot rule out a few showers especially across upslope
of the Longfellow Mtns and Moosehead Region north to Baxter and
into the County. Temperatures in the 40s north means it will be
rain showers but with -2C at 925mb cannot rule out a graupel
pellets if any shower can get a little more convective robustness
to it.

Wed...Latest GFS/ECMWF ensembles and operational runs remaining
consistent with high pressure over the area. Latest GDPS
operational is fascinating suggesting a cyclone developing on
the tail of a offshore cold front is an outlier. Very few
ensemble members show this but with the GDPS overdoing the
strengthening of a -NAO might be what is causing this. This was
new in the 00z running of the GDPS so for now we will throw
that run out. For now going with NBM and that results in a
mostly sunny day. 20s and low 30s to start with highs in the low
40s north and mid to upper 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will be variable from MVFR to VFR at the
Aroostook County terminals today. Forecast confidence on how
much of the time will be MVFR versus VFR is low. When MVFR
ceilings are present they will likely be around 2500 ft agl.
VFR expected tonight at the Aroostook terminals. VFR at the
Downeast terminals today and tonight. NW wind increasing to 10
to 15 knots with a few higher gusts today. The wind will back
into the W/SW and diminish to around 5 knots tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Fri...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA possible at northern terms. LLWS possible
Fri PM with FROPA. SW winds 5-15kt shifting W-NW in the PM and
increasing 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt possible.

Fri night...VFR/MVFR. NW winds 15-20kt with gusts up to 35kt
possible.

Sat...VFR. NW winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt.

Sun...VFR. W winds 5-15kt.

Mon...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely. E-SE winds 5-10kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: The wind and seas will be below small craft advisory
levels today.  The wind will pick up tonight with a few gusts to 25
knots possible, but will hold off on any headlines for tonight as
forecast confidence is much higher on SCA conditions beyond the near
term forecast period and a SCA has already been issued (see below)
for more details.

SHORT TERM: SW winds will increase mid morning over the waters
as a front approaches from the NW. Winds gusting up to 30kt will
shift to W-NW by sunset. A few gusts through Fri night may reach
35kt brief at times. NW winds will remain gusty through Sat
evening up to 30kt. Seas over the Coastal Waters will build Fri
night into Sat between 4 and 7ft. Given these conditions have
hoisted a Small Craft Advisory from 10am Fri to 7pm Saturday for
all the waters out to 25nm and east to the Hague Line.
Winds/seas come down below SCA conditions Sun and likely remain
below SCA into midweek.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB
Short Term...Sinko
Long Term...Sinko
Aviation...CB/Sinko
Marine...CB/Sinko