613
FXUS61 KCAR 262124
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
524 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will slowly cross the region tonight through
Sunday. High pressure will move south of the region Monday.
A warm front lifts northeast on Tuesday associated with another
low approaching from the west. Low pressure will track north of
the area on Wednesday as a cold front moves across the state.
High pressure will build toward the region Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Vertically stacked surface/upper lows will slowly cross the
region along the Downeast coast tonight through Sunday.
Occasional rain will persist across the region tonight through
Sunday. The most persistent rains early tonight will occur
across Downeast areas. Rain will then re-develop across the
region overnight with the deformation zone moving across the
region. The steadiest rains with the deformation zone early
Sunday should occur across northern and west-central portions
of the forecast area. The deformation zone rains will then
slowly pivot east/southeast across the region through the
remainder of Sunday. Low temperatures tonight will range from
the upper 30s to around 40 north, to the mid 40s Downeast. High
temperatures Sunday will range from the mid 40s north, to around
50 Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level low will progressively pivot eastward across
the Gulf of Maine and southern Nova Scotia Sunday night, ending
rain from northwest to southeast. Additional rainfall amounts
after 8 PM Sunday will generally be around a tenth of an inch or
less. Ridging builds across the area Monday into Tuesday
morning with mostly clear skies and the warmest temperatures so
far this year for most of the area as high temperatures reach
the 60s. A fast moving shortwave trough will move across eastern
Ontario into central Quebec Tuesday, forming a deepening area
of low pressure just east of James Bay. Northward transport of
moisture ahead of its associated cold front will reach the
western Maine border by late day, potentially leading to
isolated to scattered showers. Instability should primarily
remain confined to Quebec, limiting the risk of thunderstorms in
Maine. The area will be well within the warm sector, but
uncertainty remains regarding how much clearing the area sees.
Warmer temperatures aloft could support more widespread lower
70s away from the coast, where strengthening onshore flow will
keep temperatures capped. Regardless, it will be another mild
day.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Model spread increases with respect to the timing and evolution
of an area of low pressure moving eastward across central
Quebec into the northern Canadian Maritimes Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Faster solutions bring a cold front through Tuesday
night, while slower solutions bring the front through on
Wednesday morning. The latter solution would produce a stronger
pressure gradient with stronger wind gusts. However, in either
case Wednesday will be windy with the strongest winds across
northeastern Maine and cooler and drier air moving into the
region. Adjustments were made to the NBM to go with higher winds
and slightly cooler temperatures. Conditions will also need to
be monitored for potential fire weather implications as moderate
to strong winds and drying conditions combined with vulnerable
fine fuels prior to seasonal green up could lead to increased
wildfire spread potential Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure will build towards the area Wednesday night into
Thursday, decreasing winds and clearing out skies with
seasonable temperatures. Model guidance is in general agreement
that an upper level trough will move into the Great Lakes
Thursday night into Friday, which will increase chances for
showers and a period of rain. Friday afternoon and evening is
currently the most likely period for measurable precipitation
based on a consensus of ensemble guidance.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR conditions tonight through Sunday with
occasional rain and patchy fog. Variable winds around 10 knots
tonight. Variable winds around 10 knots, becoming north 10 to
15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Sunday. Southwesterly
low level wind shear Downeast late this afternoon.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night...MVFR/IFR, becoming VFR from northwest to
southeast. N wind 10G20 kts.

Monday-Monday night...VFR. N wind 10G20 kts, becoming light and
variable around sunset.

Tuesday...VFR. S wind 10G20 kts.

Tuesday night...VFR, becoming MVFR. S wind 10G20 kts, shifting
NW. There is some uncertainty with the frontal passage timing
Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. NW winds could gust up to 40
kts behind the front.

Wednesday...MVFR, improving to VFR. Strong NW wind 15-25 kts
gusting to 30-40 kts. Slightly higher gusts are possible at
northern terminals in some ensemble scenarios.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. NW wind 10G20 kts, decreasing
Thursday evening.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of
the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters,
tonight through Sunday. On the intra-coastal waters, the Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect tonight into Sunday afternoon.
Rain and patchy fog tonight. Rain likely Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain around Small Craft
Advisory criteria Sunday night as winds increase and seas remain
steady with a 9 second period southeast swell. Winds and seas
subside below advisory levels on Monday and remain below
criteria through Tuesday. Winds and seas increase to advisory
levels again Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, before
decreasing again on Thursday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...MStrauser
Long Term...MStrauser
Aviation...Norcross/MStrauser
Marine...Norcross/MStrauser