780
FXUS61 KCAR 150831
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
331 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure from the Maritimes will impact the region today
into the weekend. Another low will approach Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ridge axis has shifted west into srn Quebec as low over the
Maritimes continues to back twd the area with blocking over the
North Atlantic. Very dry airmass, as noted from 00z raob out of
Caribou, has kept clouds and precip at bay tonight. Stratiform
precip has moved as far west as eastern NB with light snow
being reported at Fredericton as of 08z. As clouds and precip
move back to the west they are eroding as they run up against
dry air and expect this to continue for the next several hours.

Challenge becomes how quickly precip can reach the ground before
sfc temps rise above freezing. Temps have dropped into the teens
under clear skies over the North Woods but remain in the mid-upr
20s acrs ern areas. Thinking is that temps should hit their low
around 10 before clouds move into ern areas with temps becoming
steady and then slowly rising. Given uncertainty on how quickly
sfc temps rise in relation to how fast precip begins to fall
will determine where a glaze of ice can effect the morning
commute. Bufkit soundings from all guidance indicates dry air at
the lowest levels remains in place until closer to 18z acrs the
east. However comparing this with the Fredericton model
soundings and current ob shows precip is fcst to be about 3 hrs
too slow with reality. Given the uncertainty have canceled all
but the very far ern areas from the Winter Weather Advisory this
morning.

As temps warm later this morning expect that rain showers will
get as far west as the Bangor area this evening before lifting
to the north as low pulls north into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
With temps dropping into the lwr 30s acrs the northwest expect
that any lingering rain showers will mix with snow showers
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A vertically stacked low fills and lifts slowly northward in
the Maritimes Saturday into Sunday. That will sustain a north to
northwesterly flow with plenty of low level moisture and
clouds. A few light showers will remain possible Saturday into
Saturday night with minimal diurnal temp swings.

Ridging at the surface and aloft builds Sunday with very slow
clearing from west to east during the day. That will push Sunday
high temps back to 50F for Bangor, but another day in the low to
mid 40s is expected in Aroostook County where clouds remain all
day into Sunday night. The relative low cloud cover will reduce
mixing and wind gusts both Saturday and Sunday.

There will be just enough clearing to allow Sunday night lows
into the upper 20s to lower 30s before clouds increase again
later in the night ahead of an upper level low moving
southeastward out of Quebec.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Negative NAO continues into next week with a blocking upper
level high north of Quebec and a closed upper low in the
Maritimes. This means generally cloudy, moist, mild and breezy
conditions over the forecast area.

The closed upper low drifts southward from Quebec for Monday
and Monday night with the chance of showers, but no organized
areas of lift and precipitation. The air mass is not cold
enough for any frozen precip. While the upper low moves across
the area quickly, it becomes stationary in the Maritimes. This will
renew the moist northwest flow over the area with generally
cloudy conditions and the risk of light showers Tuesday into
Wednesday.

For Thursday, another vertically stacked low is expected to
slowly approach from the Mid-Atlantic states with a warm
occlusion. While most guidance has the front pushing into the
area by Thursday night, the blocking pattern does not lend
itself to high confidence and will keep PoPs at chance. If this
front does arrive, it would likely provide a decent shot at
much-needed rainfall and continued unsettled weather for late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR tonight. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR late
morning/early afternoon and then drop to IFR over Aroostook
terminals in the evening. Prob30 for -fzra pl over Aroostook
terms early this morning with light rain in the afternoon.
Downeast terminals likely to be MVFR late afternoon/early
evening with only vcsh expected.

LLWS present at all terminals into the afternoon. Winds will
become gusty out of the north this morning with gusts to
25-30kts.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...IFR cigs north of GNR and HUL with tempo IFR vis in
drizzle. Becoming MVFR in the afternoon. Mostly VFR towards BGR
and BHB due to cigs. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt.

Saturday night...Continued IFR cigs with tempo IFR vis in
drizzle north of HUL and GNR, but VFR for BHB and BGR.
Northwest winds near 10 kt.

Sunday into Tuesday...MVFR cigs north of HUL and GNR, but VFR
for BGR and BHB. Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: North winds will gust to near 30kts at this today and
tonight. Seas range from 3-5 feet over the outer waters but
remain below 3ft over the intracoastal zone.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions are expected to be in place Saturday into
Sunday. The next SCA is likely to start next Tuesday, but may
end by Tuesday night. Odds for another SCA or gale increases
Thursday into Friday next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EST this morning
     for MEZ002-006-017-030-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Buster/MCW
Marine...Buster/MCW