153
FXUS61 KCAR 281820
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
120 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region later today through
tonight. Low pressure will approach later tonight, cross the
area late Saturday, and continue east through the Maritimes
Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build over the
area Monday then slide south of the region Tuesday while low
pressure begins to approach from the west.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Update...
No change to the Winter Weather Advisory. The strong cold front
which crossed the region this morning is now exiting across the
Gulf of Maine. Expect isolated snow showers across northern
areas this afternoon. Gusty west/northwest winds will also
produce patchy blowing snow across mostly Aroostook county and
northern portions of Penobscot county. West/northwest winds will
gust up to 30 to 35 mph across the forecast area this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly sunny skies across
northern areas this afternoon with mostly sunny skies Downeast.
Temperatures will fall through the afternoon in the wake of the
cold front. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along
with expected afternoon temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Winds veer from northeast to the southeast as clipper currently
just north of the Arrowhead of Minnesota dives south through
the Great Lakes today. Snow will enter into wrn portions of the
CWA after midnight tonight, overspreading the entire area before
dawn.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Snow ahead of low pressure approaching Western Maine Saturday
morning will spread across the area before dawn. The snow will
continue across the area Saturday morning and then become more
intermittent during the afternoon as drier air surges in from the
southwest. Current estimates on snow accumulations Saturday morning
range from around 4 to 6 inches north to an inch or two near the
coast.

Low pressure will rapidly move away to the northeast Saturday night.
Snow, possibly mixed with some rain along the coast, will have ended
Downeast. However, intermittent light snow and snow showers will
likely persist across Northern Maine supported by the approaching
upper trough axes. The trough axis will cross the north Sunday
morning ending the snow and ushering in northwesterly winds and
colder air. This will bring a partly cloudy sky north and a mostly
clear sky Downeast late Sunday. High pressure cresting over the area
will bring a mostly clear and frigid night Sunday night with lows
from the teens below in the northwest to near zero along the coast.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure cresting south of the area Monday will bring a mostly
sunny and very cold day following a frigid morning. High pressure
will slide south of the area Monday night allowing a return flow
around the high to begin advecting moisture and warmer air north
into the region. This will bring a mostly cloudy day Tuesday as a
warm front takes shape across the region.

Tuesday night into Wednesday our focus will turn to a large storm
system approaching from the Plains. Moisture well ahead of this low
will bring thickening clouds Tuesday night into Wednesday with a
chance for some spotty light snow over the north and rain along the
coast. Low pressure will push into the eastern great lakes Wednesday
lifting additional moisture and warm air north. Snow will change to
sleet and possibly freezing rain then plain rain from south to north
Wednesday morning as warm air lifts northward. By late Wednesday
precipitation will be mostly rain across the area. A low level jet
surging into the Downeast region may bring a period of strong
southerly winds late Wednesday through Wednesday night. Further
north, occasional rain and fog can be expected as strong low
pressure lifts up to our west.

Rainfall combined with snow melt may result in flooding concerns
over parts of the area. The snow pack is likely deep and cold enough
to reabsorb most of the rain and snowmelt over the north. However,
Downeast where the snow will ripen and shed more rapidly we may have
some flooding issues. A deep frost across our entire area will mean
that any rainfall and snow melt will not soak into the ground but
will run off.

Rain will continue into Thursday before a dry intrusion surges in
ending precipitation. Thursday will be a warm day with highs from
the low 40s north to the upper 40s Downeast.

Low pressure will continue north into Quebec on Friday as the upper
trough axis crosses the area. This will bring a mostly cloudy day
with some lingering snow showers as colder air works in. The GFS is
showing the possibility that a secondary low develops to our
southeast which could brush eastern areas with some additional snow.
Otherwise, Friday will be mostly cloudy, breezy and turning
colder.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR with isolated snow
showers this afternoon. Patchy blowing snow. Across Downeast
areas, VFR this afternoon. VFR regionwide early tonight, then
MVFR/IFR late with a chance of snow. West/northwest winds 15 to
25 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots today. West/northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming
east/southeast around 10 knots overnight. Southerly low level
wind shear develops later tonight then persists into Saturday.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...IFR in snow. S winds over southern areas and E winds
across the north.

Saturday night...MVFR becoming VFR south. IFR becoming MVFR north.
Gusty NW winds.

Sunday...VFR, possibly beginning as MVFR over the north. Gusty NW
winds.

Sunday night...VFR. Light NW wind.

Monday...VFR. Light W wind.

Monday night...VFR, becoming MVFR north late. Light SW wind.

Tuesday...MVFR dropping to IFR in lowering clouds. S wind.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM
Saturday for much of the waters, with the exception of the
intra-coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through 7 PM this evening for the intra-coastal waters. A
chance of snow later tonight.

SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Saturday through Sunday
night for winds gusting up to 25 kt over the offshore waters. A
gale will likely be needed Wednesday night into Thursday for
southerly winds gusting up to 35 kt. Seas may build up to 13 ft
in response to the southerly Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday for
     MEZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Buster
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Norcross/Bloomer
Marine...Norcross/Bloomer