148
FXUS61 KCAR 061541
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1141 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will
begin to approach later tonight, then slowly cross the region
Monday while low pressure tracks along the front. The system
exits across the Maritimes Tuesday. An upper level low
approaches Wednesday and crosses northern portions of the
region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:40 AM Update...The sky remains cloudy and the air tranquil as
low stratus remains over region. Other than some slight
adjustments to midday temps, the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
Surface/upper level low pressure exit across the Maritimes
today while high pressure crosses the region. Clouds wrapping
around the exiting system and trapped beneath a subsidence
inversion will keep cloudy/mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area today. High pressure then begins to exit across
the Maritimes tonight, while a cold/occluded front approaches
western New England. Skies will remain cloudy tonight. Rain
chances will also begin to increase later tonight, mostly across
western portions of the forecast area, in advance of the
approaching front. Could also have patchy fog later tonight.
High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 50s
north, to around 60 to the lower 60s Downeast. Low temperatures
tonight will range from the mid to upper 40s north, to the upper
40s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold/occluded front will begin to cross the region Monday through
Monday night. A weak area of low pressure will develop along
the front during Monday afternoon as the front slowly crosses
the region. Expect rain to overspread the region early Monday
and then continue through Monday night. There is still some
uncertainty on how quickly the front crosses the region Monday
night. The GFS is a bit quicker than EC and NAM. A slower
frontal passage would keep some lingering rain across the
Maine/New Brunswick border through Tuesday morning. Rainfall
amounts Monday through Tuesday will range from around three-
quarters of an inch across the north Maine Woods and Downeast
Maine and one-inch to an inch and a half across the Maine/New
Brunswick border. Afternoon highs both days will range from the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold/occluded front moves east through the Canadian Maritimes
Monday night. Upper level low pressure will slowly cross the
region Tuesday night through Thursday. Expect partly to mostly
cloudy skies through the period with chance for showers, mainly
across the north and mountains. Higher pressure builds in by
Friday and Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures Wednesday
through Friday will be below normal, then near normal levels
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR with local LIFR ceilings north, MVFR
ceilings Downeast, this morning. MVFR ceilings north, VFR/MVFR
ceilings Downeast, this afternoon. MVFR regionwide early
tonight, then MVFR/IFR overnight. Increasing rain chances later
tonight, mostly western areas. Patchy fog later tonight. North
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable today. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots, becoming southeast tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Mon thru Mon Night...MVFR/IFR in rain. SE to S wind 5 to 10 kt.

Tue...IFR is possible north early Tue, otherwise VFR/MVFR. Wind
becoming W 5 to 10 kt.

Tue night through Thu...VFR/MVFR northern terminals and VFR
elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight. Patchy fog later tonight.

SHORT TERM: Seas could reach 5 to 6 ft across the outer waters
Monday thru Monday night, otherwise generally sub SCA conditions
expected the rest of the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Norcross/TWD
Marine...Norcross/TWD