496
FXUS61 KCAR 041058
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
658 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly pushes south through Maine today into
tonight. High pressure crosses the region Tuesday through
Thursday then begins to move SE Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weak cold front will continue to move through the state
today. High res models are in good agreement with the
progression of the front and the amount of isolated showers
expected. In general, as the front moves S, showers will follow
the front. By the afternoon, the daytime heating will help
produce enough instability to create isolated thunderstorms.
These showers and thunderstorms should stay south of the Central
Highlands. In addition, the upper air model soundings show a
well mixed boundary layer ahead of the front. This will make for
another day of near surface smoke, which will reduce
visibilities today.

By tonight, once the front exits the region before midnight,
the showers should end. Also, the front should push the rest of
the near surface smoke out of the area. High pressure will
settle back into the region, clearing out clouds for the night.
Northern temps will reach into the upper 40s and south in the
mid 50s.

By Tuesday, high pressure settles in making for partly cloudy
skies and calm winds. Temps will increase into the upper 70s
with lower RH values for the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate for through Wednesday night,
bringing dry weather to the forecast area. Temperatures Tuesday
night through Wednesday night will be slightly cooler than
normal, but starting on a gradual warming trend that will
continue through the end of the week. Drier conditions will
persist across the north in the wake of the weak cold front
that moves through on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will prevail through the weekend, continuing the
dry stretch of weather. By Thursday, the high will shift
eastward and return flow will begin to affect the state. This
will bring a gradual increase in humidity and temperatures, with
near normal temps lasting through Saturday and the potential for
warmer than normal temps on Sunday. Saturday will also present
the first possibility for precip to return with a potential
shortwave moving across the Crown of Maine. This looks fairly
weak, with high uncertainty on timing, so the chance for showers
and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon is currently slight.
NBM currently has the shortwave moving through on Saturday,
however, with the uncertainty on timing, these showers may be
delayed until Saturday night or Sunday. &&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions for all terminals today,
tonight, and Tuesday. Possible MVFR vsby in FU and HZ for all
terminals except FVE. Once the front exits tonight, vsby will
return to VFR. Light and variable winds.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions. Some risk
for morning valley fog, primarily at PQI and HUL, lowering
morning conditions to MVFR or IFR. However, fog should be pretty
short lived. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Tuesday through
Thursday night. South/southwest winds around 10 knots Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Some early smoke and fog for northern terminals this
morning reducing vis to MVFR. MVFR in FU and HZ later today for
southern terminals. Northerly winds will clear these sites but
confidence in timing is moderate. Otherwise mainly VFR
conditions for all terminals through Tuesday. Light and
variable winds.



SHORT TERM:

Tuesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR
conditions. Some risk for morning valley fog, primarily at PQI
and HUL, lowering morning conditions to MVFR or IFR. However,
fog should be pretty short lived. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
Tuesday through Thursday night. South/southwest winds around 10
knots Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions
through Tuesday.


SHORT TERM: |Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels
Tuesday night through Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ001>006-
     010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF/LaFlash
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...LF/LaFlash/LF
Marine...LF/LaFlash/LF