237
FXUS61 KCAR 080314
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1014 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build toward the region tonight, then cross
the region Saturday. Low pressure will track south of the Gulf
of Maine Saturday night through Sunday. High pressure will build
across the region Monday through Tuesday. Another low will track
south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1020 PM Update: Snow showers have diminished over most of the
forecast area, with only a few light showers lingering at this
time. Partly to mostly clear skies now persist throughout
northern and eastern Maine. Sustained winds have decreased some,
though occasional gusts 25 to 30 mph remain, and so temperatures
will continue to only gradually fall as the boundary layer
remains mixed. The previous forecast remains largely on track
with only a few minor adjustments made based on current
observations and trends.

Previous Discussion:
An upper level disturbance will cross the region tonight, while
surface high pressure builds toward the region. Expect
mostly/partly cloudy skies across the north and mountains
tonight along with scattered snow showers. Across Downeast
areas, expect partly cloudy skies along with isolated snow
showers this evening with clearing skies overnight. The pressure
gradient between strong low pressure near Labrador and building
high pressure will keep gusty west/northwest winds across the
region tonight, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected. Patchy
blowing snow will persist across northern areas early tonight.
Isolated snow showers could persist across the north and
mountains early Saturday. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies
north with mostly/partly sunny skies Downeast. West/northwest
winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph Saturday. Low temperatures
tonight will range from around 10 north, to the lower to mid
teens Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will range from the
mid to upper teens north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system moves off the Delmarva coast Saturday
evening and passes south of New England. The storm should
maintain an eastward trajectory out to sea, never getting
farther north than Cape Cod. Enough moisture should be present
to allow for snow to fall after midnight in the Downeast, Bangor
and Central Highlands. A few inches may accumulate with some of
the higher totals closer to the coast. Snow totals are expected
to drop off towards the north with much of Northern Maine
seeing less than an inch. The accumulating snow clears out of
the area Sunday night but a few snow showers and flurries may
persist into Monday especially across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weather early next week looks to be mostly quiet with the
exception of the potential for a fast moving clipper Tuesday
evening. High pressure returns briefly on Wednesday before
another trough approaches from the west in the Thursday
timeframe bringing another potential storm system to the region.
Ensemble models are currently coming into agreement over the
existence of a trough over the eastern US and the development of
an attendant surface low, but individual members are divided on
the exact timing, strength, and location of the system as is to
be expected at this timeframe. Regardless, there is still at
least some potential for an impactful winter storm later next
week and is something to be watched.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR across all terminals through the rest of tonight
and Saturday. W to WNW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to
around 25 knots tonight through Saturday. Brief LLWS is possible
across all terminals through the night, however with lower
levels remaining well mixed and surface winds remaining elevated
through the night, any wind shear may be brief, and confidence
is not great enough to include in the TAF at any one time.

SHORT TERM: Moderate snow Saturday night will result in IFR
conditions at southern terminals while light snow and flurries
will result in MVFR conditions at northern terminals. VFR
through Tuesday except for MVFR in any light snow showers. MVFR
Wednesday in light snow.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning remains in effect through 3 AM
Saturday for the coastal waters with gusts to 35 kts, while a
small craft advisory is now in place for the intra-coastal
waters as gusts have fallen to 25 kts and seas 3 to 6 ft.
Coastal waters will likely fall to small craft advisory levels
later tonight, with advisory conditions lasting through
Saturday. Light freezing spray later tonight into Saturday
morning.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions possible Sunday, returning below SCA
levels through early Monday. SCA conditions may return Monday
evening. Some light freezing spray possible in the intercoastal
waters Saturday night through Sunday. Visibility reductions
likely in snow Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Norcross
Short Term...Melanson
Long Term...Melanson
Aviation...AStrauser/Norcross/Melanson
Marine...AStrauser/Norcross/Melanson