535
FXUS61 KCAR 091010
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit across Nova Scotia this morning. High
pressure will build across the region this afternoon into
Friday. Low pressure will slowly lift north toward the region
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:10 AM Update...Snow showers continue to be scattered across
central areas with more isolated snow showers elsewhere. Raised
temps a degree or two early this morning and modified sky cover
a bit. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

Previous discussion...
The small storm system which brought some snow to the area,
mostly over the western highlands, will slide east and away
early this morning. Any lingering snow showers from the system
will taper off early this morning. High pressure will begin to
build south of the region this afternoon allowing morning clouds
to give way to a partly sunny afternoon. Forecast soundings are
showing steep lapse rates up to 8K ft, mainly across the north,
and the HRRR is indicating some light scattered snow showers
may pop up this afternoon. Will include isolated snow showers
over central and northern areas midday into the afternoon.

Tonight will turn out mostly clear, moonlit and cold with inland
lows near 20 over the region. Winds will become very light
westerly as high pressure continues to settle to our south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure ridges across the region Thursday with a mostly
sunny morning, then a mostly/partly sunny afternoon. Ridging
extends from the Maritimes, across the forecast area, to Quebec
province Thursday night. At the same time, a trof will extend
across New England from low pressure across the Mid-Atlantic
region. Expect increasing clouds Thursday night. Ridging
persists Friday, with precipitation struggling to expand north
from the Mid-Atlantic low. Expect mostly cloudy skies Friday,
could also have a slight chance of rain/snow showers. Moisture
from the Mid-Atlantic low begins to slowly expand north toward
the region Friday night. However, uncertainty still exists
regarding how rapidly this occurs. Generally expect
precipitation will remain southwest of the region Friday night
with skies remaining mostly cloudy across the forecast area,
though precipitation could begin to approach southwest portions
of the forecast area late. Expect near normal level temperatures
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Precipitation will begin to slowly expand across the forecast
area Saturday, though how rapidly this occurs remains uncertain.
Generally expect precipitation in the form of rain, though an
initial rain/snow mix is possible if precipitation arrives
early enough. The vertically stacking surface/upper lows move
northeast Sunday, though the track remains uncertain. At the
same time, surface/upper ridging will approach from the west. A
more northerly low track would keep a chance of rain across the
entire region through Sunday into Sunday night. A more
southerly low track, would limit rain chances to mostly Downeast
areas. The vertically stacked system should slowly exit across
the Maritimes Monday, while high pressure begins to build across
the region from the west. Could still have a slight
chance/chance of rain showers Monday with the exiting system.
High pressure crosses the region early Tuesday. Another system
could approach later Tuesday. However, whether this system is
just a front or a more organized low remains uncertain. Have
included a chance of rain showers Tuesday. Expect near normal,
to slightly above normal, level temperatures north Saturday.
Expect slightly below normal level temperatures Downeast. Expect
near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures
across the entire region Sunday. Expect slightly above normal
level temperatures Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions are expected to improve to VFR this
morning, then remain VFR across the area tonight. Winds will be
westerly, gusty at times during the midday and afternoon today,
then become light WSW tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...VFR. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming
variable 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots, becoming south/southeast.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of rain/snow showers.
South/southeast winds around 10 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. becoming
east/northeast.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain.
Variable winds around 10 knots.

Saturday night through Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with
a chance of rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night.
North/northeast winds around 10 knots Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale winds have diminised to SCA this morning and
will drop below SCA this afternoon. Seas will be around 8 ft
this morning subsiding to around 5 ft this afternoon. A SCA for
seas will have to remain up through the afternoon. However, seas
should drop to around 3 ft tonight as winds continue to
diminish.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Thursday through Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Norcross