416
FXUS61 KCAR 161123
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
723 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in at the surface through Friday as an area
of low pressure aloft tracks from Northern New Brunswick to the
waters south of Nova Scotia. This high builds overhead Friday
night through Saturday night, then slowly slides to the east
through Sunday night. A complex storm system approaches from the
west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 AM Update: Rain showers continue to spread through the
forecast area this morning. Rain showers remain light.
Temperatures continue to be mild, with most of the area still in
the lower 40s this morning, and this has limited the areal
extent where a few early season snowflakes may be seen. The
previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made based on current observations and trends.

Previous Discussion:
As a trough of low pressure slowly retrogrades westward into
this forecast area, rain showers have begun to push into the
eastern Aroostook county early this morning. These showers will
continue to spread across most of the forecast area through the
day today, though showers are likely to remain light with less
than a quarter inch of rainfall expected. The pressure gradient
between the deepening parent low and a ridge of high pressure
approaching from the west will generate a LLJ that will lead to
breezy conditions today, with northwest winds gusting 25 to 35
mph. Rain showers will exit the area tonight, but winds will be
slow to taper off into the day on Friday. Though overall
temperatures will remain mild, temperatures could fall low
enough around sunrise this morning for a brief period of snow
over the North Woods before rain mixes in again. High
temperatures today will be limited by the overcast skies and
rain showers, only lifting into the mid to upper 40s. Tonight,
lows will fall back into the 30s through the forecast area. On
Friday, drier conditions and clearing skies will allow for
temperatures to rebound back into the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday night: The large low pressure system will continue to
move out to sea, giving a brief weak surface ridge over the
region. The clearing skies and calming winds should drop temps
into the low 30s in the north and upper 30s in the south. Some
areas in the North Woods could see lows in the 20s. Decided to
keep areas of frost in the forecast as well as river fog for the
morning.

Saturday: The weak ridge should start to slowly move to the
east with the approaching cold front moving in from the west.
Skies should remain fairly clear with some clouds moving into
the north later in the day. Expect temps in the upper 50s across
the region.

Saturday night: Clouds should gradually increase with the cold
front slowly moving closer. With the calm winds and initial
clearing at the beginning of the night, temps should be in the
low 30s in the north with upper 30s in the south due to the
onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models are in much better agreement with the timing and track of
the low pressure system and the cold front moving into the
region. Rain is expected to begin Monday morning and continue
into Tuesday. The main question will be QPF amounts with the
system. As of this update, models are showing more rainfall over
Downeast. However, confidence is low due to the inconsistent
trends over the last few runs. Nevertheless, decided to slow the
progression of the rain until Monday. Once the system exits on
Tuesday, another low pressure system is expected to move into
the area. The models are very inconsistent with the track and
timing. Decided to stay with the NBM until closer model runs.
Temps should be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly MVFR conditions today with rain showers. A
few sites in the north may fall to high end IFR in these
showers. MVFR cigs likely will last into tonight but begin to
improve by early Friday morning, and skies will begin to clear.
Breezy conditions as NW winds today 10 to 15 kts will contain
gusts 20 to 30 kts. Winds will begin to gradually dissipate late
tonight into the day on Friday, becoming 5 to 10 kts by Friday
evening.

SHORT TERM: Friday night-Saturday night: VFR across all
terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday: Generally VFR across all terminals, though cigs will
begin to fall towards MVFR heading into Sun night. S winds 5 to
10 kts.

Monday: MVFR ceilings and rain showers possible. S/SE winds at
5-10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts possible during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will increase this morning, becoming gales on
the coastal waters by this afternoon A gale warning is in place
and lasts into tonight. Intracoastal waters will see gusts
remain 25 to 30 kts, and a small craft advisory remains here.
Seas through this time of 4 to 6 ft will begin to decrease into
the day on Friday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should remain below SCA conditions
through Sunday night. By Monday, winds are expected to increase
to SCA levels.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES
Short Term...ARL
Long Term...ARL
Aviation...AES/ARL
Marine...AES/ARL