766
FXUS61 KCAR 241056
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
656 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach from the west through tonight,
then cross the region Monday and Monday night, as its parent
low passes well to the north. An upper level low remains over
the area on Tuesday. Another cold front crosses the area on
Thursday followed by high pressure building in from the west on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm moist air advection this morning will continue into the
afternoon with southerly winds. A cold front will be slowly
pushing east into the St. Lawrence River Valley of Quebec today.
PWATs across much of the area from Bangor to Houlton and points
north and west increase to 125-150 percent of normal in the 1.2
to 1.5 inches range. As the 250-500mb trof develops and digs
south we are increasingly being placed in the right entrance
region to a strengthening jet streak today. As upper level
divergence increases expecting surface convergence to increase.
However, it will take time as the front needs to move further
east to kick off showers.

For today, expecting much of the CWA to remain dry with
increasing cloud cover. Temperatures in the warm sector over the
CWA today will be in the 70s to low 80s away from the coast.
Seabreeze at the shore will keep these locations in the 60s to
low 70s. Dew points are increasing slightly so low RHs less than
45 percent will be confined to the south upslope areas of the
Longfellows and into portions of Eastern Aroostook. One thing to
note today is the 925mb LLJ is increasing and daytime mixing
will tap into those winds. Expect a breezy day today with S
winds 10-15mph and gusts 20-30mph possible. Combining the modest
low RHs, gusty winds and dry/drought conditions we are watching
fire weather concerns in portions of the CWA, see the fire
weather section below for more details.

Tonight, the front will continue its creep eastward as a low
pressure system develops south of Cape Cod in response to the
rapidly increasing upper level divergence. The front will push
widespread showers into the Moosehead Region, North Woods and
St. John Valley. Here becomes the problem in terms of getting
beneficial rainfall. The front is slowly moving east and the low
pressure system begins to steal much of the QPF potential for
Downeast and Central areas. The low will be tracking south of
Georges Bank towards western Nova Scotia. On this path it will
keep much of the widespread rain shield offshore and only
showers for Downeast heading into Monday. The front will keep
its eastern movement and showers will be widespread across the
north but things are trending lighter. Best chance of a greater
than 0.25 inch rainfall will be Moosehead, Baxter to Caribou
points westward to the Quebec border with the St. John Valley to
North Woods getting 0.5 to 0.8 inch of rain. Elsewhere, rainfall
will generally be 0.1 to 0.25 with perhaps the most right along
the shore and islands given the low pressure track. Cannot rule
out isolated to scattered thunderstorms tomorrow especially
closer to the front axis.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal low will be heading over Nova Scotia Monday evening, though
it looks to stay far enough south to prevent much in the way of
rainfall to Downeast unfortunately. Cold front looks to be set up
along the international border 00z Tuesday, poised to move through
the CWA overnight. Line of showers, along with a remnant storm, will
be passing thru central and nrn areas early before diminishing thru
the nighttime hours. With moist ground and light winds kept patchy
fog over the area for Monday night. Dewpoints look to start dropping
after midnight as min temps dip into the 40s over portions of the
North Woods.

Tuesday will see temperatures only climb into the upper 60s/lwr 70s
acrs the north with mid-upper 70s over interior Downeast. With
dewpoints dropping into the 40s and winds gusting to between 15-20
mph cannot rule out another day for fire weather concerns. System
Sunday night into Monday is trending drier over eastern areas and
with fires starting even with an RH over 40% could see another day
of heightened fire weather concerns. Upper level trough continues to
hang back to the west with slight chc for showers over the far north
due to diurnal heating.

Upper cold pool doesn/t appear to move near the area until Tuesday
night which will keep showers at bay. With loss of heating skies
should clear overnight and allow temps to dip into the middle 40s
over favored locations acrs the northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Troughing continues over the northeast through the end of the week.
This will bring ocnl upr lvl disturbances thru the area. The next
more organized system looks to be with a cold front moving thru on
Thursday. NBM gives chc pops acrs the north and west late in the
afternoon and have gone with this solution, though may need to speed
pops up with later forecasts and include thunder in ahead of the
boundary. However, given the disparity with cold front moving thru
Thursday and upr low closing off over Quebec late in the week will
wait until models come into better agreement before making any
changes to NBM guidance. Temps acrs the north will run below normal
with near normal temps over srn sections thru the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: SCT/BKN VFR cigs today. S winds 10-15kt with gusts
20-30kt possible. Tonight, expecting MVFR/IFR cigs to develop
with vsby reduce with BR/FG. SHRA develop overnight with VCTS
possible at northern terms. Widespread IFR and some LIFR by Mon
AM with SHRA and FG. Tomorrow expecting MVFR cigs north and IFR
cigs south. S-SSE winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night...MVFR/IFR possibly improving to VFR late over
Aroostook terminals. SSW 5-10kts.

Tuesday-Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. W 5-15kts.

Thursday...VFR, possibly becoming MVFR late in showers over northern
terminals. SSW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory continues through 8pm this
evening. S winds will gust up to 25kt today across the waters.
Seas generally 3-6ft this morning subsiding to 3-4ft this
afternoon. Winds and seas will be below SCA tonight through
Monday evening. Winds will shift SE tomorrow afternoon. Seas
subside to 1-3ft tomorrow. Tonight fog and showers will develop
across the waters reducing vsby at times. Showers and fog
continue through tomorrow evening.

SHORT TERM: Winds remain below small craft levels through Thursday.
Seas will increase to aoa 5ft Monday night and Tuesday in southerly
swell mainly over the outer waters. Seas look to remain marginal
Tuesday night before dropping on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southerly winds will increase this morning and peak midday into
the afternoon. Gusts will reach 15-25mph at times with a few
higher gusts to 30mph possible especially along and southeast of
the Longfellow Mtns including Aroostook County. Afternoon
relative humidities will drop to 40-50 percent in Eastern
Aroostook, Baxter Region into portions of the Central Highlands
and interior Downeast north of Route 9. These areas will be the
greatest fire weather concerns combined with the ongoing
abnormally dry grounds and drought conditions. RHs will be
50-55 percent across the North Woods and 60-80 percent thanks to
a seabreeze Downeast. All of this combined with the Maine Forest
Service advising fuels are very receptive in the sunlight we
expect fire weather concerns to continue today. Much of the
state has been experiencing high to very high fire danger.

Showers and thunderstorms developing late over the Maine and
Quebec border later this afternoon, continuing into Monday and
Tuesday. The trend for this system has been drier and drier, with
the only wetting rains expected along the mountains and northwest
to the Quebec border including the North Woods and St. John
Valley. Elsewhere, rainfall generally 0.1 to 0.2 inch expected
including Eastern Aroostook, Upper Penobscot Valley, Bangor Region
and Downeast. We are currently evaporating 0.1 to 0.25 inch of
water from the soil daily which means little rainfall will
result in only temporary help in fire weather concerns.

Drier weather, lower RHs and steady light winds are possible
Tuesday through Thursday. Only a few shower chances mainly in the
North Woods and far North. This will continue the fire weather
concerns into late week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Sinko/Buster
Marine...Sinko/Buster
Fire Weather...Sinko