024
FXUS61 KCAR 191325
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
925 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track north of Maine today and tonight. High
pressure will build over the area Monday. Another low pressure
will cross the region Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:25AM UPDATE...First round of precipitation working into New
Brunswick with another batch of showers tracking into Somerset
county and will push through much of the northern 1/2 of the
CWA. Warm front is trying to push north right now across the CWA
and is located in Western Maine and Downeast Coast and will
push NE. Expecting the Greater Bangor area to break into the
warm sector with rapid temperature rises expected this
afternoon with 60s to near 70F. Along the Downeast Coast the
wind off the water will keep these areas cool with low clouds.
Across Northern 1/3rd of the CWA expecting 50s to near 60F
thanks to more clouds, north of the warm front and precip.
Still cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm within showers
that develop this afternoon but most of those will be confined
to the warm front and north of the front with elevated
instability. No other changes...

Previous Discussion... A low pressure system will track
through Northern Quebec today. This low will drag a warm front
through the region this morning. The result will be rain showers
moving across the area from southwest to northeast. These
showers will likely hang on across the Crown of Maine through
the day. The Bangor region and Downeast will be dry by the early
afternoon. The region will be firmly within the warm sector by
this afternoon. 850 mb temperatures increase to 10-15C from
north to south. Currently forecasting high temperatures at or
above 70 degrees for Bangor to Dover- Foxcroft. The Central
Highlands to Interior Downeast should see highs in the mid 60s.
Clouds and showers will keep highs closer to 60 degrees in the
Crown of Maine. Onshore flow will keep Coastal Downeast in
the 50s through the day.

Towards the end of the day, a cold front will approach from the
northwest. This will bring the threat of more rain showers to
central and northern areas this afternoon and evening. Enough
instability will be present for there to be at least some
isolated thunderstorms in these areas this afternoon. The
threat of thunderstorms will end Saturday evening with the loss
of daytime heating.

The front will cross the area from northwest to southeast
tonight, resulting in a sharp drop in temperature. Any leftover
rain showers will transition to snow showers in the Crown of
Maine by daybreak Sunday. In addition, the parent low will begin
to strengthen as it moves over Labrador. This will result in
increasing westerly to northwesterly winds later tonight. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 20s to the lower
40s from northwest to southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday...
Winds are a concern on Sunday as the departing low pressure
system strengthens over the Gulf of St Lawrence. NW winds
gusting around 45 mph are expected for most of the area, with a
few higher gusts possible. Atmosphere will be very well mixed to
about 5000 ft above ground, which will allow the stronger winds
aloft to mix down. Went with higher NBM percentiles and
stronger than most guidance for sustained winds and gusts.
Leaves still aren`t out which helps limit tree damage, so don`t
expect anything more extremely localized tree damage and
isolated power outages. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday with
highs in the low 40s north and around 50 Downeast. Dewpoints
should drop easily and went lower than most models for
dewpoints. Could be a couple light rain/snow showers early in
the far north, but otherwise dry.

Sunday Night...
Winds gradually ease through the night. Seasonably cool with
lows around freezing. Dry and mostly clear.

Monday...
High pressure overhead with a nice day in store. Highs in the 50s,
dry, fairly light wind, and mostly sunny skies.

Monday Night...
Next system approaches from the west, with light rain likely developing
from west to east late in the night. Looks too warm for snow
except perhaps a few flakes at the very start over the extreme
north, quickly changing to rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain exits from west to east either late Tuesday or Tuesday
evening. Not enough cold air to work with for any snow on the
back side. Models disagree more as we get to Wednesday and
beyond. Overall, pattern looks fairly progressive with fast west
to east flow, but timing systems is difficult. Next rain event
is most likely to be around next weekend, though can`t rule out
something weak around Thursday. Temperatures look fairly close
to average from Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR with possible MVFR this morning at Aroostook
terminals. MVFR/IFR this afternoon with low cigs and SHRA.
Isolated TS possible mid to late afternoon at Aroostook
Terminals. SW winds 5-15 kts, gusts to 20 kts. LLWS through
11-13z, then again after 16z.

MVFR possible at BGR and Downeast terminals this morning after
11-12z with SHRA, then VFR in the afternoon. SW winds 5-15 kts,
gusts to 20 kts. LLWS at BGR through around 12z.

Mainly MVFR at Aroostook terminals tonight with -SHRA changing
to -SHSN late. VFR for BGR and Downeast. SW winds 5-15 kts, gusts to
20 kts this evening. W-NW winds 10-20 kts, gusting 25-35 kts
late tonight. LLWS possible BGR northward through early this
evening.


SHORT TERM:

Sun...VFR. Possible SCT-BKN MVFR cigs north mainly in the
morning. NW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 45kt.

Sun Night...VFR. NW winds diminishing to 10 kt late.

Mon...VFR. NW winds 5-15kt.

Tue...MVFR/IFR. Rain likely. S-SE winds 5-15kt.

Wed...VFR south, SCT-BKN MVFR cigs north. -SHRA possible north.
WNW winds 10-15kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain at or above Small Craft
Advisory levels through today and tonight. Expect SW wind gusts
up to 30 kts. Wave heights up to 8 feet possible on the outer
waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters
for that time. Winds will turn NW late tonight, and increase to
Gale force by Sunday morning, when a Gale watch goes into
effect.


SHORT TERM: Issued gale watch for possible NW gusts 35-40 kts on
Sunday. Improving conditions Sunday night, with conditions
generally below small craft Monday to Wednesday, though can`t
rule out conditions briefly reaching small craft at some point
Mon-Wed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and windy day is expected Sunday across the area behind the
departing storm system. Northwest winds will become gusty in the
morning and last into the early evening hours. This is expected
to be a decent mixing day with widespread gusts 35-50 mph across
the area with isolated higher gusts. In the afternoon as the
mixing height reaches 5kft the relative humidity will drop
significantly especially Downeast. Expecting 30-40 percent
minimum RHs across the north from Moosehead Region to NE
Aroostook. Downslope winds will result in 25-30 percent minimum
RHs for the Central Highlands, Bangor Region to Downeast Coast.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side across the northern 1/2
of the area in the low to mid 40s. Downeast and Bangor Region
expecting 48-52F for highs given the downslope winds. The best
chance of a wetting rain on Saturday prior to this event will be
across the northern 1/2 of the area with the least amount of
rain along the Downeast coast. It is across the Downeast coast
we expect the potential for fire weather concerns given
temperatures and the lack of rainfall prior. We will need to
continue to monitor the trends over the next 24 hours.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark/Sinko
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...Clark/Sinko/Foisy
Marine...Clark/Sinko/Foisy
Fire Weather...Sinko/Foisy