Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
376 FXUS61 KCAR 101023 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 623 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered east of NewFoundland will ridge back across the Gulf of Maine into early next week. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and move through the area on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 625 am update... Updated forecast to remove fog over the coast this morning as it hasn`t really materialized, other than in very isolated locations. No other chgs with this update. Prev discussion blo... Ridge of hipres remains over the Gulf of Maine with swrly flow continuing acrs the area. Expect similar conditions today with little change in airmass. Slight chc for showers and storms fcst to dvlp to the north of the sea breeze boundary with diurnal htg. Temperatures overperformed yesterday under hazy skies and expect most inland locations will approach 90 this afternoon. This looks to be the start of a heatwave that will continue through the short term. Heatwave is defined as 3 days or more of high temperatures >= 90 degrees. Convection will diminish this evening with clear-mostly clear skies expected with mins only dropping into the lower-middle 60s. Marine layer might try to make another run at the coast late tonight and have brought patchy fog along the coast after 06z. Fog likely to diminish after sunrise with upper ridge parked over the CWA. Sunny skies and warming temps will push most inland areas over the 90 degree mark. Heat indices will approach heat advisory criteria of >95F with dwpts progged to be in the l/m 60s. Will allow day shift one more look to account for any mixing that may result in lwr dewpoints before issuing any heat headlines that may be needed. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridging remains in place Monday night with continued muggy conditions. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s for much of the region. Light southerly flow will keep lows a bit cooler along the coast along with patchy to areas of fog expected near the coast. Upper level ridge begins to weaken somewhat on Tuesday but it will be another hot and humid day. Afternoon highs away from the coast will climb into the lower 90s in most areas. Heat advisories may be needed once again as apparent temperatures will approach the mid to upper 90s in some areas. Mainly clear skies and continued muggy conditions are expected Tuesday night with lows mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper ridge continues to break down by Wednesday in response to an approaching upstream trough and surface cold front. Afternoon highs may be a couple degrees cooler than Tuesday but it will still be another very warm and muggy day. There are still timing differences amongst the deterministic model guidance with regard to the speed of the frontal passage. But would expect the chance for showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. The strength of any potential convection is still highly uncertain this far out. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday evening, with the chance for showers right into Thursday as an upper trough and secondary front crosses the region. A cooler and drier airmass can be expected for Thursday night through early next weekend. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will be several degrees above normal and then just a bit above normal Thursday. Near normal temperatures for this time of year are expected by Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR next 24 hours. Cannot rule out a stray shower affecting Aroostook terminals this afternoon but did not include at this time. Better chance exists for IFR vsby reductions at BHB late tonight. VFR at all terminals on Monday. SHORT TERM: Mon night...VFR, except MVFR/IFR possible in fog KBHB. Tue and Tue night...VFR, except MVFR/IFR possible in any early morning fog vicinity KBHB. Wed and Wed night...VFR but MVFR possible in any scattered showers and late afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Thu...VFR but MVFR possible in any showers. Gusty NW wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No headlines expected through Monday with seas around 1 foot on the intracoastal zone and 1-3 feet over the outer waters. Patchy fog may reduce visibilities over the waters tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will be below SCA levels through the period. Fog may reduce visibilities in the waters to around 1 NM Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures are possible in some locations both Monday and Tuesday. Records Highs for Monday Aug 11: Caribou: 92 in 2020 Houlton: 91 in 2020 Millinocket: 96 in 1944 Bangor: 99 in 1944 Record Highs for Tuesday Aug 12: Caribou: 93 in 1944 Houlton: 92 in 2020 Millinocket: 94 in 1944 Bangor: 100 in 1944 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Buster Short Term...TWD Long Term...TWD Aviation...Buster/TWD Marine...Buster/TWD Climate...Buster