Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
990 FGUS63 KMSR 271247 ESGCAL CALUMET RIVER BASIN LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 647 AM CST WED NOV 27 2024 IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. :...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING... VALID PERIOD: 12/02/2024 - 03/02/2025 : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES : AS A PERCENTAGE(%) CATEGORICAL : FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- :Hart Ditch HDDI3 12.0 13.0 14.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Thorn Creek THNI2 9.0 14.0 15.5 13 17 <5 <5 <5 <5 :Little Calumet River LCMI3 12.0 14.0 17.0 39 41 17 15 13 13 SHLI2 16.0 17.5 19.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 LEGEND CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK) HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION FT = FEET IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1202 Z DH12 /DC2411271247/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH .B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF : : Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 12/02/2024 - 03/02/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Hart Ditch HDDI3 4.3/ 4.5/ 4.9/ 5.2/ 6.1/ 7.2/ 7.6 :Thorn Creek THNI2 3.6/ 3.9/ 4.9/ 6.3/ 7.6/ 9.1/ 10.3 :Little Calumet River LCMI3 8.1/ 9.0/ 10.0/ 11.4/ 12.9/ 18.1/ 21.0 SHLI2 7.5/ 8.3/ 9.4/ 10.8/ 12.7/ 14.3/ 15.2 .END IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD. :...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES... .B MSR 1202 Z DH12 /DC2411271247/DVD90/QIVFZNT/QIVFZN9/QIVFZNH .B1 /QIVFZN5/QIVFZNG/QIVFZN1/QIVFZNF : : Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations : Valid Period: 12/02/2024 - 03/02/2025 : : 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% : --- --- --- --- --- --- --- :Hart Ditch HDDI3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Thorn Creek THNI2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 :Little Calumet River LCMI3 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 SHLI2 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0 .END :Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of :the month throughout the year. $$