Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
511 FXUS62 KCAE 151757 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 157 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper ridging will continue to break down through the mid week, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances each day. Upper ridging then returns for the late week and thus weekend, bringing warming temperatures and more typical shower/storm chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated to scattered storms into this evening Low pressure along the east coast of Florida continues to retrograde to the west, along with a weak inverted upper trough extending northward from the low. Convection will mainly be focused along the quickly advancing sea breeze and in the higher terrain of the Upstate due to upslope flow. The seabreeze convection should enter the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA, and some of the Upstate convection could propagate into other parts of our forecast area into this evening. However, coverage may be somewhat suppressed as a weak band of subsidence resides over the area and the GOES precipitable water product shows an axis of lower PWATs shifting westward into the area ahead of the seabreeze. These isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should be fairly progressive and even though some locally heavy rainfall is possible do not anticipate much of a flash flood threat. A few pulse strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are also possible, with primarily a wind and lightning threat. Heights are a little lower today so highs should only reach into the lower to mid 90s. Convection will diminish by late evening, with mainly high cloudiness lingering into the overnight hours. Winds could remain coupled out of the southeast through much of the night. Low level moisture could result in some patches of late night stratus. Low temperatures should be seasonable in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): _ Scattered afternoon thunderstorms forecast each day. Weak troughing will persist at the surface across the Midlands of SC through the next couple days as low pressure meanders across Florida and into the Gulf. Aloft, ridging will hold strong over the southeastern states, building in from the east. A tropical-like airmass will remain in place, resulting in PWAT values pushing 2.0 inches at times. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, aided from the weak troughing at the surface. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. The overall severe threat remains low, with ML CAPE values only around 1000 J/kg and no mentionable shear. Storm motions look to be more progressive than previous days, lowering the flooding threat with any thunderstorms. However, a strong to marginally severe storm or locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out where boundary collisions occur. Each evening will feature diminishing rain chances and overnight lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Warming temperatures into the weekend. - Typical summertime pattern will continue with afternoon showers and thunderstorms Upper ridging will prevail aloft over the southeastern states, as supported by ensemble guidance. Additionally high pressure will build in at the surface. The building high pressure will yield warming temperatures, with high temperatures Friday and through the weekend reaching into the upper 90s. Heat index values are forecast to reach to around 100-105 through the weekend. Lacking any large scale forcing, a typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at all terminals through 18Z Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected into this evening, and have maintained a PROB30 group through 00Z at the terminals. Some brief gusty/erratic winds and visibility restrictions are possible in the stronger storms. Southeasterly winds will increase closer to 7-11 kt later this afternoon, and guidance shows them weakening a bit later than normal, likely becoming light late this evening. Models once again show some indications of stratus/fog toward daybreak. However guidance has been too aggressive the past few mornings so prefer to maintain a persistence forecast and keep mention of any flight restrictions out of the forecast until confidence increases. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early morning fog/stratus possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JAQ SHORT TERM...CPM (CHS) LONG TERM...CPM (CHS) AVIATION...JAQ