856
FXUS62 KCAE 030758
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
358 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A major warmup continues today with near record temperatures
expected through Sunday. The next storm system impacts our area
Sunday into Monday as a cold front moves into the area, followed
by much cooler temperatures next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Near record warmth today.

A front remains just along the northwestern border of the
forecast area evident by temperatures in the 70s early this
morning in our area with the Upstate mostly in the low 60s.
Widespread cloud coverage and southerly winds this morning will
prevent temperatures from dropping more than a degree or two for
the rest of the morning.

Upper level ridging continues to strengthen today in response to
a deepening trough in the western US. NAEFS mean continues to
indicate that 500mb heights rise to above the climatological
maximum. Blended guidance likely not capturing the strength of
this upper ridge so went a degree or two above the nbm for
highs today with highs in the mid to upper 80s, well above
average although likely just short of the daily record (91F at
Columbia, 92F at Augusta). Some drier air likely to move in
aloft which will limit precipitation chances, although an
isolated shower or storm will be possible near the front in the
far northwestern portion of the forecast area. Lingering low
level moisture tonight will lead to additional stratus
developing tonight with mild overnight lows expected once again
with lows near record max as well, in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Highly anomalous warmth continues through Saturday, with near
  daily record temps.

The broad mid-level and surface ridging will not move much as a
series of shortwaves continue to amplify the trough to our west. As
such, broad southerly component warm advective flow will continue
and drive 850-500 heights well above the 99th percentile in the
NAEFS climatologically. Surface highs temps consequently should
again top out near 90 F, right around daily records. EC EFI
continues its very strong signal through this period, with
persistently high EFI and SoT around 1; overall, this signal
further supports consistently near record highs, but not
necessarily record breaking. Given the weak isentropic lift,
persistent moisture, and surface heating, some isolated showers-
storms are possible both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A slow moving front moves through Sunday, bringing showers-storms.

- Much cooler temps likely starting Monday and lasting throughout
  next week.

The trough-ridge pattern will slowly shift east into Sunday, driving
the primary forcing for convection into GA and possibly SC. While
there is some questions on the exact timing, the initial warm
sector airmass should be generally unstable enough to support a
severe-flash flooding threat; the strongest height falls will
remain well to the west Sunday, so the instability is driven by
low level moisture-heating. However, without much initially
mid-upper level support, GEFS only progs a roughly 50% chance of
greater than 500 J/kg. Both low-deep layer shear however will be
sufficient again to support some severe hazards and as such, SPC
has continued their 15% risk into eastern GA. The flash flooding
threat is more likely to materialize, given the front
orientation, parallel deep shear, and PWAT`s around 1.5"; WPC
has the entire area in a marginal flash flood risk.

The front will slowly drag through on Monday, with some
lingering showers expected but the front should fully push
through from a temperature perspective. Temps Monday through
Wednesday are expecting to be at to slightly below average,
with a flip in what we saw in the NAEFS and EC EFI over the
weekend, as the primary trough axis digs across the eastern
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR Ceilings With Period of IFR this Morning.

Mostly MVFR ceilings currently in place as low level moisture
remains in place with a front to the northwest of the terminals.
Guidance has trended away from the potential for IFR ceilings,
at least predominantly but have continued to favor at least
TEMPO IFR at all terminals. Winds remains elevated out of the
SSE which should prevent any fog from developing. Expect
improvement through this morning with increased mixing leading
to drier air in the low levels. Breezy southerly winds with
gusts around 20 knots possible this afternoon. Once again
possible for restrictions tonight but highest potential remains
after 06z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Another day with the threat of
early morning restrictions continues on Friday with continued
low level moisture in place. Precipitation remains unlikely
through Saturday before the next rain chance moves in Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$