377
FXUS62 KCAE 271720
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather conditions remain in place through
Saturday. Rain chances increase on Sunday with several days of
wet weather possible early next week. High pressure then builds
back in for Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Well below normal temperatures and dry

Strong high pressure centered over the Plains and MS Valley
will continue to build east into the region through tonight. A
very dry air mass has descended over the forecast area with
PWATs less than 0.2 inches and dewpoints likely to fall into the
teens and low 20s today. The axis of the surface high should
remain to our west overnight which will prevent ideal
radiational cooling and winds should stay up a bit with a 20-25
knot low level jet present but the continued cold advection
alone should allow temperatures to fall below freezing and lows
are expected to fall into the 20s with some mid 20s possible.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Continued cool and dry.

- Widespread subfreezing temperatures Friday night, slightly
  warmer Saturday night.

High pressure will continue to build in from the west on
Friday, passing overhead at night, and then offshore on
Saturday. This will maintain a cool and very dry air mass over
the FA during the short term. PWATs begin the period at or under
0.15" and only manage to climb to around 0.75" by daybreak
Sunday. Daytime temperatures will be well below normal with
forecast highs in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Conditions will be
nearly ideal for radiational cooling Friday night allowing
temperatures to once again fall below freezing, with some
recovery Saturday night due to increasing cloudiness ahead of
the next storm system.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Warmer temperatures possible on Sunday ahead of an approaching
  cold front.

- Rain chances increase early next week and will be likely on
  Tuesday.

- High pressure returns to close out the extended.

Winds shift around to the southwest on Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the west. Rain chances increase through the day,
with the highest probabilities near the Upstate. There remains
uncertainly in the timing of the front with the deterministic
Euro being faster than the GFS. Temperatures will be dependent
on how quickly the front moves in and there may be a large range
in daytime temperatures across the FA. The current forecast
shows highs ranging from the lower to mid 50s in the northwest
to the upper 60s in the southeast.

The front stalls somewhere in the region early next week and
could mark the boundary between in-situ wedging to the north and
warmer air to the south. Current thinking is that the majority
of the CWA will be on the cool side of the boundary, with below
normal temperatures early next week. There may be a break in
the rain on Monday before an area of low pressure develops in
the Gulf and rides along the stalled front, bringing a period
of moderate to heavy rainfall Monday night into Tuesday. There
are discrepancies in the track and timing of this system but
PWATs will be well above seasonal values suggesting the heavy
rainfall potential. The rain ends late Tuesday or Tuesday night
with clearing skies as high pressure builds in from the west.
Dry weather closes out the long term. Daytime temperatures early
next week are likely to be below normal with near to below
normal readings at night.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.

As high pressure continues to build into the area from the
west, northwesterly winds are expected through the period with
winds 5 to 10 knots today diminishing overnight then picking
back up to around 5 knots from the north to northwest. Dry air
mass in place and some light wind overnight should prevent fog
concerns.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...On Saturday night, moisture begins
to increase over the region bringing chances for widespread
restrictions and rain into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$