


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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580 FXUS62 KCAE 012342 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore. This may bring a few weak showers mainly across the northern and western CWA for Wednesday and Thursday. A major warmup begins Thursday with near record temperatures expected through Sunday. The next storm system impacts our area Sunday into Monday followed by much cooler temperatures next week. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Moisture begins to increase late tonight. Surface high pressure will move off the coast overnight, setting up an onshore flow wind pattern. Do not expect any rainfall overnight, but this pattern should lead to widespread low clouds early Wednesday morning and possibly fog or stratus building down to reduce visibilities. Stratus appears more likely due to a 15 to 25 kt low level jet. Expect mild overnight lows, in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Cold Air Damming develops on Wednesday. Isentropic lift could trigger a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across the northern and western Midlands. - Thursday is warmer and drier as the Bermuda High begins to build into the region. Upper ridge will be centered to our southeast through the short term with the upper flow generally out of the southwest. At the surface, strong high pressure will be centered over Quebec at the start of the period, shifting east into Atlantic Canada by daybreak Thursday. A storm system moves northeast into Canada on Thursday while the Bermuda high builds into the Southeastern US. Wednesday looks partly to mostly cloudy as weak Cold Air Damming develops, likely producing a large range in daytime temperatures across our forecast area as surface winds shift from east to southeast. Enough moisture and isentropic lift will be present for the development of isolated showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm or two, across our northern and western counties. As mentioned, high temperatures could vary greatly and will depend on the strength of the amount of CAD with forecast values ranging from the mid-70s in Lancaster and Chesterfield counties to the lower 80s in the southern Midlands and CSRA. Any rain should taper off Wednesday evening as the wedge weakens but lingering low-level cloudiness should result in a gradual decreasing in temperatures with lows only falling into the lower to mid 60s. Clouds should gradually decrease on Thursday as the wedge breaks down. The clearing combined with southerly flow around the developing Bermuda high will result in above normal temperatures on Thursday with forecast temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. There is a low chance of a passing shower or two across the far northwestern FA but much of the region should be dry. Thursday night begins mostly clear to partly cloudy but clouds build back in towards daybreak Friday with lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Atypically warm temperatures expected this weekend with record high temperatures possible. - The next chance of rain arrives on Sunday into Monday. - Much cooler temperatures follow behind the front. Upper ridging holds strong to our southeast through Sunday, being replaced by a potent trough centered over the Central CONUS. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High remains in place through Saturday Night, before shifting east ahead of a cold front. The region will likely be hot and dry until the cold front moves though, with near record temperatures expected Friday through Sunday. On Sunday, rain chances will increase as a slow moving cold front approaches. A few thunderstorms will also be possible Sunday afternoon and evening. Rain may be slow to move out on Monday, with near to below normal temperatures to close out the extended. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ceiling restrictions expected to return Wednesday morning. All`s quiet on the TAF front as of right now. The front has finally shifted through most of the TAF sites and is setup across the southern portion of our forecast area right now, south of the Orangeburg and Augusta terminals. Dewpoints have fallen quite a bit since this time yesterday, with values in the mid 40s to low 50s across the area. This has allow clouds to generally clear across the area. VFR conditions should continue for the next 6 hours or so. However, thereafter, rapid moisture advection is expected to begin as low-level wind shift out of the southeast. This low-level jet is forecast to be 20-30 knots, and widespread ceiling restrictions are expected as a result. The timeframe of MVFR onset looks to be between 08z and 10z, with IFR developing quickly thereafter. Expect these to continue into the morning hours as moisture continues to push into the region. There does look to be some clearing tomorrow afternoon as there really isn`t a strong inversion in place to hold the restrictions in place. So expect improving conditions sometime between 18z and 20z tomorrow afternoon. Winds throughout the period don`t really look to be a problem, with southeasterly flow of 5-10 knots likely tomorrow afternoon. Within the onshore flow, some isolated showers/storms are possible tomorrow afternoon but aren`t expected to be widespread enough to put in the TAFs right now. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The threat of early morning restrictions continues on Thursday with abundant low level moisture in place. Showers and storms will also be possible on Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation unlikely from Thursday through Saturday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$