712
FXUS62 KCAE 041913 CCA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued warm conditions into the weekend, with near record
temperatures expected through Sunday. A cold front will move
slowly through the area late Sunday through Monday with
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler temperatures
expected behind the front next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Unseasonably warm conditions continue.

Strong ridge remains in place overhead with surface high
pressure in place off the Southeast coast. These have led to
very warm temperatures for this time of year, now that the pesky
low clouds have finally mixed out for the most part. There
remains potential to reach record highs at Augusta and Columbia. Dew
points are also hovering around 70 degrees, indicative of high
lower level moisture, which is leading to afternoon cumulus and
some destabilization. However, forecast soundings show very dry
air above the low level moisture as well as a capping
inversion. These factors are playing a role in keeping showers
or storms from developing, but there remains a low chance (~15%)
for some development this afternoon. If a shower or storm is
able to develop this afternoon, it is likely to be short-lived.
The cumulus cloud and shower chances diminish as the sun sets
this evening. Some lower clouds could develop once again
tonight, but guidance is showing some drier air moving in as
compared to the past couple of nights. So, if low clouds
develop, it appears that they`ll move in a bit later, leading to
slightly cooler overnight lows. Despite slightly cooler temps,
lows are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Highly anomalous warmth continues Saturday, with near daily record
temps.

The upper ridge centered off the Southeast U.S. coast will shift
a little to the southeast in response to the deep upper low over
the Desert Southwest lifting northeast toward the Plains and
upper trough amplifying over the northern Plains/Great Lakes.
However, the heights aloft remain near/above the 99th
climatological percentile/2-3 standard deviations above normal. Deep
moisture will be focused along a frontal boundary in the
Mississippi Valley northeast across the Ohio Valley. Bermuda high
will be extending into the area but will be weakening through the
day. The air mass appears a little drier than today as drier air
to the south along the coast of FL advects north. Model soundings
indicate strong subsidence and weak warm advection. Stayed close
to the NBM mean which is a little warmer than the Mos consensus
and given the above normal upper heights across the area, this
seems reasonable. After some morning clouds, generally mostly
sunny. Given strong diabatic heating and subsidence think temps
will be similar to today with near record highs in the upper 80s
to near 90 and lows in the low to mid 60s.expected y to mostly
cloudy skies through the day. Daytime temperatures should be near
record highs once again, upper 80s to near 90 degrees with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Showers and thunderstorms late Sunday through Monday as a
 front moves into the area.
-A few strong storms and locally heavy rain are possible.
- Much cooler temps likely starting Monday and lasting throughout
  next week.

As upper low moves into the Plains and northern stream trough
amplifies Sunday, the slow moving front will move toward the
Southeast states. The GFS and ensembles have been slowing the
front progression down, more in line with the ECMWF guidance.
Most of Sunday should be dry with showers/thunderstorms holding
off until early evening. With warm advection temps still near
record levels, upper 80s to near 90. Breezy conditions expected
with a few gusts above 30 mph possible. A Lake Wind Advisory will
likely be needed Sunday afternoon through Monday (post frontal
synoptic winds). Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms
expected overnight into Monday morning with strong upper level
divergence enhanced by 250mb jet to the northwest/short waves in
southwest flow aloft and frontal convergence. Precipitable water
quite high around 250-260 of normal as the front moves into the
area. Given the slow movement of the front, heavy rain possible
with training. Ensembles WPC has area in risk of excessive rain.
Deep layer shear is strong, noticed 850mb 50kt low level jet
Sunday night. Instability is a limiting factor and with front
moving in overnight, severe threat may be low but the low-level
jet streak is a concern, especially in the evening after peak
heating. Think marginal risk of severe weather is on target.
Front slow to move to the east Monday and heaviest rain/potential
stronger instability in the east Midlands through the day. Overall
qpf appears to be in the 1 to 2 inch range with some potential
for locally higher amounts. GFS is faster and the heaviest rain is
focused in the Upstate, while the ECMWF has heavy rain in the
east with the slower progression of the front Monday. Secondary
front moves through Monday evening with dry and cold air advection
developing. Temps cooler with showers in the 70s.

Cooler and drier air mass builds over the area Tuesday through
midweek. High pressure to the north of the area Wednesday
morning extending into the area. Models suggest a rather tight
pressure gradient so the mixing may limit radiational cooling.
Guidance temps have come up a bit but highest probability of
temps into the mid 30s appears to be across the north Midlands
and Pee Dee. So frost issues still a concern Wednesday morning.
Afternoon temps through mid week appear to be seasonable but a
little cooler at night....70s for highs and 40s for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions for much of the period with MVFR conditions
possible near daybreak.

Mainly VFR conditions are being noted across the forecast,
though AGS and OGB have been reporting MVFR. Expect all
terminals to be VFR shortly. A cumulus field is also prominent
across the area with bases in the 3.5-4 kft. A slight chance of
a shower or storm is possible this afternoon, but chances are
too low to include in the TAF. VFR ceilings continue overnight,
with the potential for MVFR ceilings late in the TAF period,
near daybreak. Winds out of the south between 5-10 kts expected
to continue much of the night before becoming light, generally 5
kts or less around daybreak.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$