788
FXUS62 KCAE 162308
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
708 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend looks warm and humid with a few afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms possible. The next significant
chance of rain comes during the middle of next week with warm
temperatures persisting.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- A few showers or thunderstorms are possible towards daybreak
  across our northern and western counties.

Temperatures have slowly begun to fall as the sun lowers to near
the horizon. The fall should accelerate for a couple of hours
immediately after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

We then turn our attention toward the severe convection over the
lower Ohio Valley. The thunderstorms should make steady progress
toward the southeast late tonight and start to approach the
upstate during the early morning hours. However, mid level
support for thunderstorms is much lower in our area by sunrise,
so expect just remnants to approach the northwestern CWA with
possibly a few showers and an isolated thunderstorm by daybreak.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- An approaching cold front could spark a few showers or
  thunderstorms Saturday morning and again Sunday afternoon.

- Winds may be breezy at times on Saturday, especially over area
  lakes.

- Continued warm and humid through the weekend.

Guidance continues to show a weak cold front passing through
the region on Saturday. Rain chances continue to decrease and
will be highest in the morning across our northwestern counties
and the CSRA associated with the aforementioned decaying
convection. The 12Z HRRR in particular shows a complex of
thunderstorms moving into the CSRA from the west so maintained
Slight Chance PoPs there while decreasing them below 15 percent
elsewhere. SPC maintains a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe
weather in their latest Day 2 SWO so will continue to monitor
new guidance and update the forecast as needed. However, at the
moment any severe threat should be isolated. It will be breezy
at times across the forecast area on Saturday, especially on
area lakes. Latest guidance shows some lakes, especially Lake
Murray, near Lake Wind Advisory criteria. Since its is only
marginal at this time, will hold off on issuing a LWA with this
forecast package. With more clouds around, temperatures should
be slightly cooler than today albeit still above seasonal
values.

The front may stall near the region on Sunday keeping clouds in
place. In addition, our Georgia counties are in a Marginal
(1/5) risk for severe weather in the SPC Day 3 SWO. This is
where Slight Chance PoPs are maintained for Sunday afternoon.
Many locations could remain rain free through the weekend but
everyone should stay weather aware in case an isolated
thunderstorm approaches your area. Temperatures Sunday should be
a degree or two lower than on Saturday but once again above
average.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warm and humid conditions continue, with showers and
  thunderstorms possible each afternoon through mid-week.

Upper ridge axis will shift across the CWA on Monday. Low pressure in
the central Plains and Mississippi Valley will reactivate the stalled
front over GA/SC that day; it will advect NE`ward from then through
Wednesday. There remains some disagreement among models how quickly
this occurs. A gradient of instability from SW to NE across the CWA is
likely Monday, but the strength of any cap appears uncertain at this
time, and other than the general weak forcing associated with the
front, we may be for want of a triggering mechanism. There remains
some indication from the global models that a convectively generated
shortwave will round the ridge Monday which could promote initiation.
For now a mostly slight-chance to chance PoP appears appropriate. By
Tuesday chances shift mainly from Columbia northeast nearer the front,
with profiles drying aloft from the southwest making convection less
likely. Temperatures will trend warmer over these two days, with much
of the area within a couple degrees either side of 90. Enough 0-6km
shear will be present those days that if any convection does fire some
damaging wind or large hail are not out of the question; confidence
remains low partly due to the spread in depicted CAPE.

Pattern change will begin by Wednesday as central CONUS trough pushes
into the East. Guidance has come into better agreement in how this
pans out, notably the Canadian GDPS/GEPS having trended faster and
less supportive of an upper low cutting off. PoPs rise to likely Wed
as the shortwave and sfc reflection pass by to our north. Severe
threat likely will be greatest that day as cold front moves in and
0-6km shear peaks at 50-60 kt. Temps will fall back into the mid 80s
Wed under cloud cover, and then at or below normal Thursday with less
humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR Conditions Expected through the TAF Period.

Plenty of high level cloudiness will be streaming across the
region overnight and through much of the day on Saturday. This
should be the primary cloud group for much of the period at all
taf locations. Exception may be at ags/dnl sites Saturday
morning shortly after sunrise, where a brief ceiling around 5kft
may be found as diminishing area of showers moves in from the
northwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Most guidance is
indicating that showers will be all but gone as these clouds
push through the CSRA, and will no longer include any vcsh at
those locations due to low confidence. Otherwise, southwesterly
winds should be stronger at the TAF sites on Saturday as the
front passes through the region, with some wind gusts around 25
knots at all taf locations during the afternoon hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions expected
through the period barring low end chances for showers and
thunderstorm each afternoon which could cause brief
restrictions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Most rivers are either near crest, or have already crested and
are falling. River flooding remains along the the Congaree
River, and long both the North and South forks of the Edisto
River.  River levels will continue to fall through the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$