042
FXUS62 KCAE 301031
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
631 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions continue, with afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms again today ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. The front is expected to bring slightly cooler
and drier conditions to start off the work week, but building
high pressure will allow the return of temperatures near the
century mark by mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Heat Advisory in effect during the afternoon and early
  evening.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible this
  afternoon/evening ahead of a cold front.

Upper ridge that has been across the area will begin to shift
off to the west as an approaching upper trough digs towards the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a cold
front will push southward towards the forecast area through the
day before moving into and eventually into the southern cwa
overnight tonight. In addition, a lee-side trough should set up
ahead of the surface front this afternoon, helping produce
additional convergence for shower and storm development. Pwat
readings at or above 2 inches will continue today. With
afternoon high temperatures expected to climb into the middle
90s, and when combined with the moisture, heat index values in
the 105-111 are forecast. Current heat advisory will remain in
effect for this afternoon across the entire cwa. With that being
said, one fly in the ointment that could keep conditions
slightly cooler would be the development of the showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, which would produce additional
cloud cover along with rainfall. Models do show development
beginning generally between 18z-21z, with activity then moving
across the area into the evening hours. Instability will be
rather moderate during peak heating. Best shear remains north of
the area along the Mid-Atlantic corridor. This would help limit
severe potential this afternoon, and SPC keeps the cwa in a
Marginal Risk through the period. Can not rule out some strong
gusts, along with periods of heavy rainfall, in some of the
stronger storms.

Activity should be diminishing somewhat again overnight, with
highest rainfall potential moving closer to the coastal plain
through the night as the front moves through. Overnight lows
will still be muggy as the drier air lags behind the front
somewhat. Lows tonight in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key messages:
- A brief respite from the heat and humidity.

A frontal boundary stalls across or just south of the eastern
Midlands and lower CSRA during this time period. Noticeably cooler
and somewhat drier air filters into the Northern and Central
Midlands with precipitable water levels decreasing below 1.5 inches
north of I-20 and below one inch close to the North Carolina state
line. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will be possible south of I-20 while the Northern Midlands
might see at best a slight chance of diurnal convection.
Temperatures will be below normal for early July with highs in
the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Heat and humidity return as high pressure aloft rebuilds.

The model ensembles depict much above normal H5 heights building
back over the Southeast U.S. during the second half of this week.
This should lead to much above normal temperatures. The
probabilistic guidance shows a better than 35 percent chance of
high temperatures in excess of 100F both Friday and Saturday.
Precipitable water levels increase to greater than 1.75 inches.
Isolated to scattered diurnal convection should develop
primarily near the remnants of a frontal boundary on Wednesday
and then primarily near the sea breeze front Independence Day
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR Conditions Expected through the period outside of any
convection.

Partly to mostly cloudy vfr cloud cover through the period. A
cold front will be approaching the region from the north through
the day before pushing through tonight. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorm should form between 18-21z, impacting
all taf locations at some point into the evening. Have continue
with mention of vcts beginning at 19z at all locations, lasting
into the evening. Although much of the period will be vfr, do
expect that mvfr conditions could develop in convection. After
03z tonight as the front moves in and convection pushes east,
rainfall should end at all taf sites, with vfr early into the
night. Model guidance is now trending towards showing some ifr
stratus near the tail end of the taf period, but confidence is
low at this time due to uncertainty in overall rainfall and
position of the front.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours continue
Monday and Tuesday, mainly over the eastern/southern Midlands
and southern CSRA. Stratus and fog possible each morning.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$