Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
081 FXUS62 KCAE 060027 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 827 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure is in control of the weather this weekend with temperatures near or slightly above seasonable values. A cold front moves through Monday night, ushering in a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton is expected to pass south and east of the forecast area with breezy conditions possible late Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: - None We have been watching a persistent shower over the last few hours move from Richland County southwest through Lexington and Saluda counties. This cell is finally showing signs of dissipation now that the sun has set and should put an end to the rain threat tonight. Outside of that lone shower, there are scattered cumulus and stratocumulus across parts of the northern Midlands but these should also wane during the next hour or two. High clouds are expected to continue moving northward into our forecast area tonight. Model guidance favors the development of low clouds and/or patchy fog towards daybreak but any mid to high level cloudiness will reduce the threat. Its a warm and dry night otherwise with overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Dry and warm weather expected. High pressure aloft will be over the Southeast U.S. early next week. An upper level trough passing through New England is expected to swing a dry cold front through the region Sunday Night. The airmass behind the front will be a little bit drier with dew points lowering into the 50s, however temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: - Continued dry weather with a noticeable cooling trend. - A tropical system expected to move across Florida during the middle of next week. The Southeast U.S. should be between a deep upper level trough over the New England and high pressure aloft over the Southwest U.S. A Canadian surface high pressure system is anticipated to bring an autumnal airmass into the region with slightly below normal high temperatures and the coolest low temperatures since May. Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC forecast strengthens this system into a hurricane by mid-week with a track across central Florida. At this time, the primary concern for the Midlands and CSRA would be breezy to possibly windy conditions late Wednesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through much of the period but some restrictions possible Sunday morning. High pressure centered over western New York continues to ridge southward into the Carolinas. However, low level moisture remains abundant with dewpoints in the upper 60s and above normal moisture at 925/850mb. Aloft, upper level ridging persists with plenty of mid level dry air present above a subsidence inversion as noted on the 23z HRRR analysis sounding. This could provide favorable conditions for early morning fog/stratus. Winds should be light and variable to calm overnight before picking up from the northeast to east around 4 to 6 knots after 15z. All MOS guidance as well as HRRR and NBM/HREF ensemble guidance suggesting some stratus developing over the northern Midlands and moving into the Columbia area after 10z with HREF MVFR cig restriction probabilities over 70% for a few hours. Fog may be more of a concern at prone OGB/AGS although some higher clouds moving into the region from the southwest could limit that threat. Decided to go ahead and include prevailing MVFR cigs at CAE/CUB from 10z-15 with tempo IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys. Elsewhere, confidence is lower so including restrictions at AGS/DNL/OGB in a tempo group for fog 08z-12z and for cigs 12z-15z. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through mid-week, although brief early morning fog or stratus will be possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$