427
FXUS62 KCAE 191441
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1041 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper ridging will be in control of our weather through
Monday, leading to continued dry weather with above normal
temperatures. The next chance of rain comes on Tuesday from a
cold front which could stall out across the region for the
remainder of the extended.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry with above normal temperatures today.

High pressure to our southeast will keep an influx of warm moisture
rich air into the region. After starting the day in the upper 50s or
low 60s, mostly sunny conditions will support above normal
temperatures this afternoon. Some fair weather cumulus is expected
to develop as temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s this
afternoon under strong ridging aloft. A slow moving frontal
boundary to our west may eject high level clouds across the area
overnight tonight. Additionally, another low level jet, albeit
somewhat weaker at around 20-25 kts, will provide another night
of mild temperatures with lows only dipping in the upper 50s to
around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Upper ridging and high pressure to the east keeps the region
  dry with above normal temperatures.

Guidance continues to slow down the eastward progression of a
storm system over the Central CONUS. This appears to be due to
strong ridging aloft and high pressure centered to our east.
With anonymously strong upper ridging in place, the chance of
rain is very low, less than 10 percent. Winds will be southerly
through the short term promoting warm air advection and
gradually increasing moisture. This will mostly come in the form
of morning low clouds and increasing mid to high level
cloudiness, especially on Monday as the next storm system draws
closer. Temperatures will likely remain above normal values with
forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Rain chances return on Tuesday as a cold front stalls near the
  region. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through
  the extended.

- Temperatures remain above seasonal values despite the
  anticipated clouds and rain.

The extended period looks warm and unsettled as a cold front
moves in from the northwest, likely stalling somewhere in the
region for the mid-week period. This should result in daily
shower and thunderstorm chances, especially on Wednesday and
Thursday as upper ridging finally breaks down and transitions to
broad southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be dependent
on where the cold front stalls but there is general agreement
that above normal temperatures will continue despite the
expected clouds and rain. By Friday, the front may lift north
reducing rain chances, but opted to maintain a Slight Chance of
a thunderstorm through the end of the period given that warm
and humid conditions should be in place.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the TAF period.
Winds remain S-SW around 10 kt through the afternoon, with a
few gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible in conjunction with deeper
mixing with peak daytime heating. Some fair weather cumulus
will develop this afternoon, then cirrus moves in late in the
period with wind speeds decreasing to around 5 kts this evening
into tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Sunday
morning as moisture continues to increase. A front approaches
the region early next week supporting potential restrictions and
possible rainfall into mid week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$