580
FXUS62 KCAE 091916
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
316 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture spreads into the region today with periods of rain expected
tonight through Monday evening as a system moves through. This will
be followed by dry weather and a warming trend for mid-week. The
next significant chance of rain is slated to arrive next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Periods of showers into Monday morning.

Through this evening: Much of the region is now shrouded in cloud
cover with an area of mainly light showers across the western
forecast area. The activity is associated with moisture advection
and mid/upper level isentropic ascent ahead of an upper trough
approaching from the west. As the upper low tracks through the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys tonight, surface low pressure is
expected to develop along the Gulf Coast. This will bring additional
shallow moisture back into the region as southwest flow deepens
through the column. Temperatures will likely have topped out for the
day due to cloud cover inhibiting any further solar insolation, and
values have reached the mid to upper 50s with a few 60s so far today.

Tonight: Chances for showers increase markedly this evening, and
spread from south to north through the night as the system moves
across the area. Showers are generally expected to be light
tonight; however, some moderate rainfall is forecast to develop
late for the far eastern Midlands, and a few lightning strikes
can`t be ruled out. Rainfall amounts through 8 AM Monday are
expected to range from 0.25"-0.50". Overnight lows are expected
to be near average in the lower to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Continued cloudy and cooler with periods of moderate rain and
  isolated thunderstorms on Monday.

- Skies clear out Monday night with lows in the mid-30s to lower
  40s.

- Tuesday and Wednesday are dry with warming temperatures.

Monday and Monday Night: Surface low should be located near the
Georgia coast at daybreak, gradually moving off to the
northeast as the day goes on. This will keep cloudy skies and
cool temperatures in place. In addition, periods of rain are
expected and it may be breezy at times, especially in the
eastern Midlands. The associated upper low passes through the
CWA during the afternoon hours and should provide enough lift to
keep rain chances in the forecast, though probabilities will
likely be lower than they are tonight. With upper level support
in place, there could be enough elevated instability to generate
a thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will likely struggle on
Monday, therefore have continued the trend of lowering values
with forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s. Rain ends from west
to east Monday night with decreasing cloudiness. This should
allow for modest radiational cooling, though this will be
dependent on how quickly skies clear out and the winds diminish.
Forecast lows range from the mid-30s to lower 40s, lowest across
the north and west. The threat of frost is low at the moment due
to the elevated winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Upper ridging will be in place through
Wednesday evening before being replaced by an approaching
shortwave trough. Meanwhile at the surface, the FA will be under
the influence of high pressure in the Gulf, which will pass to
the south Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will translate to
generally clear skies and warming temperatures. Clouds will
likely increase Wednesday night ahead of the aforementioned
trough, but the region should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Partly to mostly cloudy on Thursday with a slight chance for a
  shower or two across the west.

- Increasing confidence with the timing of the next significant
  storm system, forecast to arrive late next weekend.

Shortwave trough moves through the region on Thursday but will
be weakening as it translates east. Ridging briefly passes
overhead for Friday before also heading eastward. Finally,
southwesterly flow develops this weekend ahead of a potent
trough moving into the Central CONUS. With the aforementioned
trough on Thursday, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and a
low (less than 20 percent) chance of a shower or two, focused
across the western CWA. The clouds limit heating somewhat but
temperatures should continue to be above seasonal values. Friday
and Saturday are warmer ahead of the next storm system.
Confidence is increasing regarding the timing of the weekend
system with rain most likely Saturday night into Sunday. The
exact timing of the storm will dictate any thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR anticipated
through this evening with restrictions likely late tonight into
Monday morning.

Increasing clouds with lowering CIGs through this afternoon as an
area of -SHRA moves through the region. Cloud bases remain high much
of the daylight hours, with no VSBY reductions expected due to the
light nature of the -SHRA. Shower activity/coverage is expected to
increase further, particularly after 22-00z. Guidance continues to
indicate MVFR CIGS at all terminals after 03-06z, with IFR
restrictions possible by daybreak Monday. AGS/DNL/OGB also have the
highest chance of reduced VSBYs due to the rain, mainly on Monday.
Surface winds are expected to generally be from the northeast to
east from 5-10 kts through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Continuing rain showers and lowered cigs
into Monday morning before drier air fills in. No restrictions
expected Monday night through Thursday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$