Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
577 FXUS62 KCAE 131708 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 108 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cloud cover continues to clear out from west to east this afternoon as the coastal low near the North Carolina-South Carolina border moves away from the region and high pressure brings in drier air. High pressure holds on through Wednesday. A reinforcing cool front moves through Wednesday night, with temperatures several degrees cooler behind the front. Another front may approach late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - Clouds continue clearing from west to east as drier air moves into the region. Upper level trough and surface coastal low continue to gradually move away from the area through the rest of the near term. As a result, clouds continue to clear from west to east this afternoon as drier moves into the region. Temperatures this afternoon are still expected to rise to the mid 70s in the east and around 80 in the west. Overnight lows will likely be on the cooler side as mainly clear skies and light winds are expected. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Temperatures return to near normal with dry conditions each day. - Dry cold front passes Wednesday night. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes, ridging down into the Southeast region is expected to bring dry conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday. An upper ridge over the central CONUS will also bring some slight height rises, aiding in bringing afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s to near 80 each day. Wednesday night, a diffuse front should pass from the north, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air where overnight lows should fall into the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key message(s): - Slightly cooler to end the week. - Cold front approaches to end weekend. The cooler airmass behind the front should yield afternoon temperatures that are a tad below normal (around 5 degrees lower) Thursday, and possibly again Friday, but dry weather should continue. Strong radiational cooling conditions Thursday and Friday night could lead to the chilliest nights we have seen this fall with lows in the mid to upper 40s, though spots toward the lower 40s seem possible, especially Thursday night. After this, global deterministic models and ensemble guidance continue to show a deep trough digging into the Plains toward Saturday, forcing the upper ridge overhead, turning flow more out the south to southwest, and bringing temperatures back near normal. Dry weather is expected to prevail Saturday but then guidance becomes a bit more split toward Sunday in terms of the timing of a potential front and associated rain chances. Right now slight chance PoP`s seem reasonable considering the uncertainty Sunday. Model agreement is relatively high that this front will clear by Sunday night with high pressure building in Monday, bringing back dry weather. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Lingering MVFR cigs slowly move out of the area, with the main impacts occurring at OGB for a few hours before VFR conditions return there. Brief MVFR cigs remain possible at CAE and CUB, but not expected to last long after 18z, so left out of the TAF there. Northerly winds between 5-8 kts can be expected through about 00z before diminishing into the morning hours. Winds increase to 5-8 kts again tomorrow after 14z or so. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR likely through the rest of the week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$