074
FXUS62 KCAE 011749
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1249 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon should be dry but cool with rainfall chances
quickly increasing this evening ahead of an area of low
pressure. A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected as
this storm moves through tonight into Tuesday morning. High
pressure then builds back in for Wednesday and Thursday before
another system takes aim at the region to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cool and drier through the daytime hours, then increase in
  rain potential after sunset tonight.
- Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall possible tonight.

Well, the weather is currently cool and quiet. High clouds are
overspreading the region as a deep trough translates southeastward
out of the central Rockies. Temperatures are pretty chilly right now
in 40s right now, expected to rise a few more degrees until the
clouds thicken up this afternoon. Surface high pressure is centered
across the Mid-Atlantic, ridging southwestward across the central
Carolinas. Northeasterly flow is fairly strong, with winds 8-12 mph
persistent, which should help keep things cooler than they
otherwise would be. Look for highs this afternoon to generally
end up in the upper 40s for most.

As we go through the day, the aforementioned trough is forecast to
continue digging southeastward and then eastward with a strong,
coupled upper level jet streak overspreading the Appalachians
by tonight. Good synoptic scale forcing is forecast to begin
overspreading the area this evening with a strong 850 jet
forecast to develop to our southwest. Moisture transport is
expected to increase quickly in conjunction with this, helping
to provide plentiful moisture to the area. PWs are forecast to
rise into the 1.25"-1.5" range overnight, well into the 90th
percentile for this time of year. Strong warm advection should
help force widespread rain across the area by this point, with
rainfall likely becoming moderate to briefly heavy at times.
Overall, this setup is quite good for rainfall, much needed
considering our dry weather of late. Rain is expected to develop
from west to east after midnight tonight, with the heaviest
rain beginning after 2a. There is a corridor, generally along
I-20ish, where some heavier rainfall may setup tonight and into
tomorrow. This is where the currently wedge boundary likely will
be through the event, and is near or just south of where the
surface low is forecast to track. Rainfall totals of 0.75"-1.5"
are expected to be common, with 1.5"-2" of rainfall possible
along an axis stretching from Augusta to Sumter. Lows tonight
are forecast to be in the 40s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Widespread rainfall is expected during the morning hours. The
  rain may be heavy at times.

- The rain tapers off during the late morning and early
  afternoon hours, ending from west to east in the afternoon.

Widespread rainfall will be ongoing at daybreak as low pressure
passes along the South Carolina coast. The rain may be heavy at
times during the morning hours. Despite the moderate to heavy
rainfall, the overall flash flood threat is low though some
minor or nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. Expect
precipitation to taper off during the late morning and early
afternoon hours, ending from west to east in the afternoon.
Skies should clear out towards evening, though some of the hi-
res guidance suggests that low clouds may linger in spots before
a cool, dry air mass filters into the FA. Temperatures should
be slightly warmer than today with forecast highs in the lower
to mid 50s. Temperatures should fall quickly at night,
especially in locations that fully clear out. Forecast lows
range from the mid-20s to the mid-30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cool and dry Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure in
  control of the weather.

- The next storm system impacts the region Friday and Saturday,
  bringing another round of rainfall.

Cool and dry conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday as
high pressure passes to the north. Moisture and warm air
advection will increase on Thursday as the anticyclone shifts
offshore but much of the FA should remain dry until the next
storm system approaches Thursday night. There remains a high
amount of uncertainty regarding the large scale evolution of the
next storm system but confidence is increasing in a period of
rain Friday and/or Saturday. There may be some improvement in
the weather to close out the weekend but this will depend on how
quickly this storm system can clear the region. Temperatures
are expected to remain below normal through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for the next several hours, with IFR and
LIFR conditions forecast tonight.

High clouds have continued to stream across the area today,
gradually thickening as they have done so. Winds are fairly
breezy as the surface high remains entrenched across the Mid-
Atlantic ahead of broad and gradual surface cyclogenesis to our
southwest. Moisture will continue to increase through the
evening hours as a surface low gets going within favorable upper
level forcing and low clouds are expected to increase rapidly
after about 03z. Rainfall is likely to begin during this period,
increasing in coverage and intensity in the 06z-09z timeframe
tonight. IFR and LIFR ceilings are likely during this timeframe,
with predominant IFR visibility expected as well. Rainfall is
expected to persist for most of the period beyond 06z tonight,
potentially becoming just VCSH at the augusta sites by the end
of this period on Tuesday. But regardless, this setup is a very
good one for all sites to see IFR or LIFR conditions for an
extended period of time tonight through midday Tuesday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next weather system will keep
the potential for restrictions in rain into Tuesday morning.
Additional restrictions possible late in the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$