279
FXUS62 KCAE 011523
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1123 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough axis will be north of the area today with
isolated showers possible. High pressure builds in behind a dry
front midweek with continued dry conditions Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures remain near or above seasonable values
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message(s):

- Low (10-20 percent) chance for showers this afternoon, mainly
  in the Northern Midlands and Pee Dee.

An upper trough axis will shift through the forecast area today
as a deeper upper trough digs into the Great Lakes region.
Satellite derived precipitable water values are around 1.5
inches. As the trough axis moves across the region the more
significant upper forcing should be north of our area, although
there is enough moisture in place to support isolated showers
across the northern Midlands this afternoon into early evening.
Another limiting factor for rainfall is northwesterly flow
developing through the day and therefore most locations are
expected to remain dry. Satellite imagery showing significant
clouds over the forecast area which should continue much of the
day until late afternoon when some clearing may occur across the
CSRA. This will limit temperatures today and expect highs to be
slightly warmer than on Monday in the lower to mid 80s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- High pressure will begin to build back into the area.
- Daytime temperatures above normal.

Clouds expected to clear a bit into the evening as drier air
moves in aloft. With lingering low level moisture, however, fog
will be possible, especially in the northern portions of the
forecast area.

As the upper trough exits the area on Wednesday, upper ridge
will build back across the region from the west. In addition, an
area of surface high pressure will move in north of the area
through Thursday night. Both of these ridges will help to keep
dry conditions through the period. As for temperatures, it will
remain slightly above normal, with highs climbing into the low
middle 80s, and lows generally in the middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
- Warm and mainly dry conditions through Friday.
- Uncertainty increases this weekend ahead of the next system.

The warm and dry conditions are expected to prevail pretty much
through the weekend. A weak surface cold front should push
through on Saturday, but with moisture continuing to be somewhat
limited, this too should pass through with little to no rainfall.
Dry high pressure should still prevail then on Sunday. By Monday
the eastern cwa may begin to see some moisture return beginning
to come inland from the Atlantic. This could produce a few
showers over the eastern Midlands and southern CSRA during the
afternoon hours. Warm conditions continue through the longer
term with afternoon highs in the low to middle 80s each day, and
lows in the 60s each night.

As for the Gulf of Mexico and potential tropical activity, there
remains an increasing uncertainty as NHC has a 40 percent
chance of development in the 7 day period. Longer term models do
indicate the potential for some development possible very late
in the forecast period. At this time, it is too far out to
speculate what may develop and how it may impact our area late
in the forecast period but it will bear watching over the next
few days.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR Conditions generally expected outside of some shallow ground
fog at AGS.

Mid to high level clouds continue to stream over the terminals
early this morning with light and variable winds. Restrictions
have developed near the NC/SC line and will slowly drift
southward, although guidance continues to suggest that any
restrictions remain north of the terminals. The exception is
some typical ground fog that may develop at AGS temporarily in
the pre-dawn hours. Winds out of the NW today around 5 knots
with developing cumulus field around 4kft.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Key Message:

- Widespread moderate-major flooding continues although rivers
  have crested. River levels will continue to fall.

Heavy rainfall associated the the pre-Helene event combined
with rainfall associated with Helene has produced high flows and
flooding on many of the streams and rivers across the Midlands
and Central Savannah River Area. While the rivers are beginning
to recede, it will take several days for the rivers across the
Midlands and CSRA to return to more normal flows. Those working
around area rivers and creeks are urged to monitor levels and
use caution near flooded areas for underwater and unseen
hazards.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$