541
FXUS62 KCAE 121031
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
631 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the South Carolina coast will move only very
slowly northeastward Sunday, providing cloudy, damp, and cool
conditions. The low will continue to gradually move away by Monday,
with high pressure bringing in drier air. High pressure will then
prevail through the week, with dry weather and temperatures within
a few degrees of normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cloudy with rain likely across the eastern half of the
  forecast area. The rain may be heavy at times.
- The rainfall is much needed, with totals generally ranging
  from maybe 0.25" in the northern CSRA to over 2" in the
  eastern Midlands.

Rainfall continues across the central and eastern portions of the
forecast area in association with our deep upper level trough.
Surface analysis and satellite reveal the surface low just off the
SC coastline, slowly drifting north or northwest and following the
best upper level lift. Northwest of this, strong moisture and
temperature advection has led to a persistent shield of
precipitation across the eastern half of the area, with rain
generally light to moderate in nature. This rain has been completely
beneficial in nature, with up to or over an inch already observed in
our eastern counties. Guidance continues to show this shield of
precip spreading westward and overspreading the bulk of the area as
the night goes along. HRRR and HREF guidance has been persistent in
showing a band of frontogenesis developing in the 700-800 hPa layer
tonight which likely will result in some banding of precip through
early afternoon. This is already being noted as a defined band of
40+ dBz echos is being shown by composite reflectivity along the I77
corridor in our FA. With favorable synoptic/mesoscale forcing & PWs
near the 90th percentile, a decent bit of precip is expected through
the day today. A general 0.5"-1.5" is shown by HREF PMM through 00z,
but there are portions of the FA that may see totals as high as 3"
if the banding rainfall sets up and trains over a specific area.
Highs today are likely to be muted again - in the low to mid 60s
across the eastern portions of the forecast area. Uncertainty with
temps is highs across the western Midlands and northern CSRA where
rainfall is expected to be the lowest. By tonight, rain and clouds
should gradually move out of the area as the surface low pulls
northward. Look for lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Drying out with sunshine returning.

As the system pulls further away into the Atlantic, a high pressure
ridge begins to fill in behind. There may be some lingering clouds
Monday morning, especially in eastern and northern areas, but mostly
sunny skies will be entrenched across the area by afternoon. Mostly
clear skies and dry weather will continue through Tuesday night,
with high temps near to a bit above normal, while lows will be near
or a bit below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather through the week.

High pressure will dominate the weather through the work week with
little to no chance for rain. A dry cool front will move through
Wednesday or Wednesday night, maybe knocking temps down a couple of
degrees, but nothing significant. Clouds will begin to increase
again on Saturday, but ensembles mainly hold off any precipitation
until after the period in this forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Complicated TAFs are in there are all sites as rainfall and
restrictions are expected for much of the forecast period.

Rain has continued at CAE/CUB/OGB throughout the night, with
occasional showers making it into AGS/DNL. What has not
materialized as of this writing is widespread MVFR cigs. This is
surprising considering the northeasterly low-level flow and
persistent rainfall. OGB was MVFR for a bit earlier but has
since seen their cigs rise back to VFR with the other sites. It
remains to be seen whether or not this trend will hold; guidance
is very bullish on the ceilings today. It is difficult to go
against it but there is a possibility that the ceilings just
remain to our east the way they have throughout the night.
Utilized PROB30s at all sites through 18z to account for this
possibility. The uncertainty should continue into the forecast
this afternoon and evening. The surface low is forecast to push
towards the northeast tonight and should usher in dry air. Yet,
BUFKIT/NBM/LAMP guidance continues to suggest that MVFR cigs
will hang around. Tend to think that the HRRR, which scours out
low clouds much faster, is closer to being correct than the more
aggressive models are. So have leaned into that guidance with
the caveat that it is uncertain. Winds through the first half of
the period continue to look breezy out of the northeast,
especially at OGB.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some low clouds may impact the terminals
early Monday morning, but any ceilings should move out by mid to
late morning, with VFR dominating thereafter for the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...