


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
310 FXUS62 KCAE 302346 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 746 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime weather is expected to continue into the start of the work week, with near to slightly above normal temperatures and daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Showers and thunderstorm chances ramp up for Tuesday and Wednesday as a weak front enters the Southeast. More isolated to scattered convection expected for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Seasonal pattern expected to continue, with warm temps and scattered showers/storms expected. The pattern remains largely unchanged compared to yesterday, so a persistence forecast is in order across the area. Ridging remains in place across the southeastern US, though it is fairly weak compared to what we were dealing with last week. This is probably amplifying slightly as a late season trough digs through the OH and TN Valley region towards us today. PWs are in the 1.7"-1.9" across the area, with MLCAPE of generally 1000-1500 j/kg. TEI and DCAPE are near the thresholds of what you`d expect for sub-severe convection to be the primary threat for the most robust convection this afternoon. Expecting coverage to generally be similar to what it was yesterday with scattered showers and storms dotting the skies and moving very slowly. This is largely driven by the aformentioned ridging across the area, with RAP, REFS, and HRRR forecast soundings all showing evidence of weak subsidence aloft near the 500 hPa layer. So while convection is favored, especially if the sea breeze works its way up here or along outflow boundaries, overall coverage should still remain isolated to scattered. Highs today are expected to be seasonal in the low 90s. Convection is expected to wane quickly beyond sunset as instability dies off. So look for a pretty quiet and warm night with lows in the low 70s across the area. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Rain chances increase mid-week as a weak front approaches - Rain may be heavy at times with a marginal threat of flash flooding An upper level trough shift east mid-week allowing for strengthening southwest flow. This will lead to strengthening moisture advection into the Southeast. Mean PWAT values from model ensembles increase to over 2 inches. The strongest forcing for convection will likely remain west of the area through the day on Tuesday. However diurnally driven showers and storms should develop in the warm, moist airmass. As a weak cold front continues towards the Southeast showers and storms become increasingly likely for Wednesday. Atmospheric moisture continues to increase with the NAEFS mean PWAT values exceeding the 90th percentile across the area. There will be a localized threat of excessive rainfall mainly due to the anomalously high PWATs and long, skinny CAPE profiles typical of a flooding threat. However, storms should be moving fast enough to limit any significant or widespread flooding problems. Synoptic forcing and enhanced convergence at the low levels will allow convection to continue into the evening and overnight periods. With increased moisture and a breakdown of the ridge, expect highs a few degrees cooler than the previous few days for Tuesday, in the upper 80s to low 90s. Cooler once again Wednesday with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. Lows for both Tuesday and Wednesday in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message(s): - Near normal temps with isolated diurnal convection each day Global ensembles favor broad troughing over the eastern US through the long term. Weak southerly flow, a decaying frontal boundary and PWAT values near or above normal will support at least a chance of rain each day. The highest values will be nearer the coast where moisture is deeper. Temperatures will generally be near normal with highs in the low to mid 90s depending on convective coverage. Nighttime lows will be in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low Ceilings Possible Towards Daybreak at OGB/AGS/DNL.... Evening radar imagery shows a line of showers and thunderstorms moving away from the terminals, with a few lighter showers outside of this band. Convection should quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating and VFR conditions are expected for much of the overnight period. Guidance is hinting at the development of low ceilings at OGB/AGS/DNL towards daybreak so added a TEMPO to those terminals with this update. Any low ceilings should transition to scattered cumulus by midday, followed by convective development in the afternoon. Added a line to the TAFs tomorrow afternoon as thunderstorms develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds may also be gusty at times in the afternoon outside of thunderstorms, especially at CAE/CUB/OGB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy low clouds and/or ground fog possible each night...but is unlikely to cause significant issues at the terminals. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$