933
FXUS62 KCAE 112359
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
759 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low continues to develop and is expected to strengthen
tonight as it drifts northward, resulting in rain chances along
with cooler and breezy conditions, mainly across the eastern
Midlands. High pressure is expected to move in and prevail
through the middle of next week, with dry weather and near to
slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Cloudy with rain likely across the eastern half of the
  forecast area. The rain may be heavy at times.

A coastal storm currently located to our southeast is expected
to move north during the overnight hours, approaching the North
Carolina coast towards daybreak. Expect cloudy skies to continue
tonight with periods of rain, especially across the eastern half
of the forecast area. CAMs continue to indicate the potential for
locally heavy rainfall and trends will be monitored as the night
goes on. Meanwhile, locations in our western CWA may once again
remain dry or see only light rainfall accumulations tonight. It
may be breezy at times during the overnight hours, especially
closer to the coast. Temperatures struggled to reach the 60s in
most places today and are unlikely to fall much tonight with
forecast lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Cloudy and cool with scattered areas of rain on Sunday.

- Periods of moderate rain possible Sunday morning in the Pee
  Dee and eastern Midlands.

- Drier conditions set in Monday with warmer temperatures.

Sunday and Sunday Night: The forecast for Sunday remains a bit
tricky with some discrepancies between model guidance regarding
two factors, the track of the coastal low and placement of an
area of 850-700mb frontogenesis. There is good general agreement
that the upper low will remain overhead but the coastal surface
low track has more uncertainty. There currently seems to be two
camps; recent global model guidance generally brings the low
just off the NC coast by Sunday afternoon, continuing north
through the day, while CAM`s (like the recent HRRR, HRW, and
RRFS) are a bit more sluggish, keeping it further south through
the day. This impacts the spread in expected rainfall amounts
and intensity as the faster solution brings less residence time
under the expected area of frontogenesis and thus less rainfall,
while the slower solutions bring higher probabilities for
periods of moderate rainfall.

With this discrepancy in mind, it does seem like an area of
moderate to strong 850-700mb frontogenesis could develop near
the NC/SC border toward the Pee Dee region into Sunday morning.
Favorable F Vector orientation to a west to east thermal
gradient and F Vector convergence is seen in model guidance in
this region, leading to the potential for increased mesoscale
lift. This could lead to periods of moderate rain mainly across
the eastern Midlands and into the Pee Dee region through early
Sunday afternoon while the rest of the FA see`s scattered light
rain. This is reflected well in the latest HREF and REFS 24hr
QPF LPMM where pockets of 2-4" are seen near the aforementioned
region. The mean HREF solution keeps 24hr QPF totals closer to
1-2" in this area though, so uncertainty remains in where the
exact location of any potential moderate bands set up. The
remainder of the day then sees continuing scattered light rain
with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rain may
become more isolated overnight and into Monday morning.


Monday and Monday Night: With the previously discussed
discrepancy in model guidance with the track of the coastal low,
some uncertainty is there mainly for Monday morning and if any
light rain chances will persist. In general, it seems the upper
low will begin moving offshore while the coastal low will be
pushing away from the region as well, thus mostly dry conditions
are expected Monday morning at this time. Outside of this,
drier conditions are expected Monday afternoon and through the
rest of the day with retuning sunshine and temperatures into the
upper 70s as surface high pressure builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Near normal temperatures and dry weather continues to be
  expected through the week.

Solid agreement in ensemble and deterministic guidance remains
for the week as a strong upper ridge builds into the central US
with the FA finding itself on its eastern periphery. Surface
high pressure also builds in, keeping temperatures near normal
and bringing dry conditions. It continues to look like a dry
cold front may pass Wednesday with a reinforcing shot of
drier/cooler air for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR cigs likely for much of the period at OGB/CAE/CUB with
persistent rain beginning tonight.

Low pressure will continue to develop offshore and lift north
along the East Coast tonight and tomorrow. Moisture will be
pulled around the backside of the low and wrap into the forecast
area causing rain/showers from tonight through much of Sunday.
MVFR ceilings will continue at OGB, the closest site to the low,
for most of the 24 hr TAF period and may drop to IFR at times.
Rain is likely at OGB with heavier showers limiting visibility
late tonight and tomorrow morning. MVFR and IFR probabilities
decrease as we move west. AGS and DNL may remain in VFR for
much of the period. Showers move will move from the coastal
plain into the Midlands late tonight and tomorrow and may
periodically drop visibilities in some of the heavier showers
between 09Z to 15Z. Winds are forecast to back with time going
from northerly to northwesterly late in the period, remaining
breezy.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions likely into Sunday
night as a coastal low wraps moisture back into the forecast
area. Conditions forecast to improve Monday, with predominantly
VFR conditions likely through mid week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$