564
FXUS62 KCAE 192342
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
742 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
this afternoon, with highest coverage in the eastern Midlands.
Moisture appears more limited on Friday as high pressure
build south from New England over the weekend into early next
week. Dry and warm conditions through Sunday, then more
seasonable early to mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Patchy dense fog toward morning

Area is on the back side of the east coast trof this evening
with northwesterly flow aloft. While PWs are still above 1.5
inches, synoptic scale subsidence will temper any attempts at
additional showers forming overnight, so other than a few stray
showers in the evening hours in the eastern third of the CWA,
conditions will be dry overnight.

However, with the plentiful moisture still around, very light
surface winds, and the aforementioned subsidence at lower
levels, conditions are set up for patchy fog to develop late
tonight, with a few areas potentially seeing dense fog by
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A drying and warming trend into this weekend.

A weak upper level trough slowly lifts offshore on Friday and
is replaced by northwest flow aloft this weekend. Precipitable
water levels range from 1.25 to 1.5 inches despite the
increasing subsidence and drying aloft.

The region is at the tail end of the pulse convection season,
therefore an isolated diurnal shower or two cannot be ruled out
given the low level moisture and shortwave troughs moving down the
backside of the departing upper level trough. The best chance for an
isolated shower is on Friday with lesser chances this weekend.

Temperatures will warm with increasing H5 heights to 5 to 10 degrees
above late September climatology. Any precipitation with the
isolated showers should be less than one tenth of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warm and dry weather expected to start the fall season.

The deterministic and probabilistic ensembles models depict above
normal H5 heights building into the Southeast U.S. from the Gulf of
Mexico into the middle of next week. This should lead to dry weather
and above normal temperatures.

The models diverge on solutions by next Wednesday with the handling
of an upper level trough over the Ohio River Valley. There could a
be a chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. The models also
differ on the timing and trajectory of a potential tropical system
moving into the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for much of the period with restrictions
from the pre-dawn hours through mid morning.

Upper level low continues to move east of the terminals and
offshore with weak high pressure ridging into the area. With
sunset showers which had developed are quickly coming to an end
along with the strato-cu and cu dissipating. Overnight expect
some cirrus to continue drifting over the region with stratus
and fog developing during the pre-dawn hours. With drier air
moving into AGS/DNL expect MVFR to IFR restrictions mainly due
to cigs with IFR to possibly LIFR at CAE/CUB/OGB where better
moisture will reside. Restrictions will mix out shortly after
sunrise with the remainder VFR as some diurnal cumulus develop
from late morning through the evening. Winds through the period
will be northeasterly at 6 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$