731
FXUS62 KCAE 111747
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
147 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively cool, but humid this afternoon. Scattered to
numerous showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and evening as deeper moisture has
returned to the Southeast. A warming trend is then expected as
we head through the week as a more typical summertime pattern
returns with scattered afternoon showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Shower activity increasing into this evening with isolated to
  scattered storms possible.
- There is potential for locally heavy rain.

Latest radar imagery shows scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms moving through the area with additional activity
moving onshore in the Low Country. Expect shower and
thunderstorm activity to continue this afternoon into this
evening as a surface troughs lingers in the area. This trough is
anticipated to drift westward into tonight, bringing
shower/storm chances along with it. PWATs are still in the
2.0"-2.3" range according to the SPC Mesoanalysis page. Dew
points are noticeably higher today as most locations are
reporting values in the mid to upper 70s. These higher dew
points have led to slightly higher CAPE (1000-1300 J/kg) this
afternoon than yesterday, which should result in more
thunderstorm activity the rest of today. With the high PWATs,
locally heavy rain is possible again today, which could lead to
areas of ponding or possibly isolated flash flood if cells are
able to train. Activity is anticipated to diminish some
overnight, but there could be some lingering rainfall in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Temperatures begin to warm Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Chances for showers/storms each day but coverage is expected
  to be greater Tuesday.

The forecast into Tuesday and the midweek remains largely on
track as upper ridging and high pressure slowly slide into the
region from the west. This should bring temperatures that get
closer to normal by Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday may be
modulated by shower/storm chances some, but in general should
still reach the mid to upper 80s. As the periphery of the ridge
moves in Tuesday, both deterministic and ensemble model guidance
are in good agreement that a shortwave should ride along the
western periphery across the northern FA throughout the day,
perhaps with some weak surface troughing remaining in place as
well. Isolated showers may be ongoing to start the day but with
PWAT`s that remain greater than 2", this forcing should allow
for scattered to numerous showers and storms to form starting as
early as the late morning, but especially during the afternoon
and evening. The mean HREF solution depicts decent instability
(MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg), which is supported by CAM forecast
soundings, but deep layer shear will remain lacking. This will
bring another day where the greatest risk would be heavy
rainfall in any convection and possible isolated flooding where
training occurs. The area most at risk would be across the
northern Midlands and northern CSRA where the antecedent
soaking rainfall from last week has kept soils here rather
saturated. Due to this, a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for
excessive rainfall from WPC is seen across much of the area. As
the shortwave exits overnight, some shower activity may linger
mainly across the north into Wednesday morning.

Upper ridging begins to work overhead throughout the day on
Wednesday, bringing near normal temperatures and more seasonal
shower and storm chances during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures should push back into the low 90s and the overall
environment should have moderate instability, but with PWAT`s
that look like they may fall slightly toward 1.9-2". Still,
plentiful moisture should allow for isolated to scattered
showers/storms by the afternoon and evening where the severe
risk appears fairly low. As has been seen the past couple days,
locally heavy rainfall should be the primary risk in any storms,
but frequent lightning can also be expected. The chance for any
activity to linger overnight is a bit lower than has been seen,
but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend the remainder of the period with more typical
  afternoon shower/storm chances.

Our more typical conditions for August are expected to continue
much of the late week and through this weekend, possibly
continuing into the early week. Ensemble guidance continues to
show the upper ridge slowly working westward through Thursday
and possibly Friday, bringing seasonal temperatures and
precipitation chances. By Friday and into Saturday, the ridge
should retrograde west enough that some weak troughing and a
very diffuse frontal feature near the FA, which may bring
slightly cooler temperatures and increased rain chances mainly
Saturday, but possibly as early as Friday. The end of the
weekend appears to have near normal temperatures and rain
chances before greater uncertainty enters the forecast heading
into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread showers and restrictions likely over much of the
next 24 hours.

Ceilings have been bouncing between VFR and MVFR at all
terminals for the past few hours. I suspect this will continue
for a few hours more. Scattered showers and storms moving
through the area are expected to continue into tonight. Expect
associated restrictions as activity approaches the various
terminals. The shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
diminish after about 00z-02z. After that, ceilings are expected
to lower into MVFR and eventually IFR after about 06z-07z. These
restrictions are anticipated to lift later in the TAF period.
Shower or storm chances increasing late in the period as well.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Expect periods of restrictions and
convection each day as deep moisture remains in place early
this week. After Tuesday, more typical summertime conditions
return.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$