548
FXUS62 KCAE 100016
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
716 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Extensive flooding continues along the Edisto River between
Orangeburg and Branchville. Strong high pressure over New
England will build south through the Carolinas into Georgia on
Sunday. Moisture spreading north Sunday and weak cold air
damming is expected to develop. Scattered light rain or drizzle
expected Sunday with cooler temperatures. Another cold front
will move into the area Sunday night into Monday with additional
scattered showers. Drier and seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday
before another cold front moves toward the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

-A cooler night ahead with increasing cloudiness and a chance
 of showers towards daybreak in the CSRA.

Its a dry evening across the forecast area with the region being
under the influence of high pressure centered over the Mid-
Atlantic. Expect mid to upper level flow to shift to the
southwest tonight as the high shifts east. This will allow PWATs
to quickly increase while clouds lower and thicken in a pseudo-
wedge setup. Latest guidance shows increasing isentropic lift
towards daybreak, especially in the CSRA, therefore shower
chances were introduced there prior to 12Z. Temperatures will
vary greatly once again tonight with forecast lows ranging from
the upper 40s to lower 50s in the Pee Dee to the mid to upper
50s in the Southern Midlands and CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

-Cool with scattered showers possible Sunday and Monday.

Moisture moves back into the region as wedge conditions are
expected to develop. As a result, cool temperatures with periods
of light rain are anticipated on Sunday. With the wedge
conditions expected, did drop highs a few degrees for Sunday
with highs ranging from the low 60s west to low 70s east. An
approaching front Sunday night into Monday keeps chances of rain
around through much of the day Monday. Rainfall amounts between
Sunday and Monday are expected to be on the lighter side, around
a half of an inch or less in general. Temperatures are expected
to rebound some on Monday due to the front pushing out the wedge
conditions as highs top out in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A few showers possible with frontal passage at end of the
  week.
- Temperatures more seasonable late in the week.

Drier air moves back into the region for the long term forecast
period as surface high builds over the area. Temperatures are
forecast to fluctuate some as the week goes on as passing upper
ridges and troughs move over the area. However, highs are
anticipated to be around normal. A slight chance of showers
returns for the end of the week as models indicates another
front is forecast to approach the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through 06z then increasing moisture and
increasing potential restrictions towards morning through the
day Sunday.

High pressure over New England continues to ridge down the East
Coast into the Carolinas. As the surface high shifts eastward
overnight lower level flow over our area shifts more
southeasterly with increasing moisture advection through the day
Sunday. This should result in low VFR cigs developing overnight
and lowering into the MVFR range across eastern GA and the CSRA
with some potential for IFR cigs, so brought in MVFR prevailing
after 08z and tempo IFR cigs 10z-14z. There is some isentropic
lift around 12z which could support scattered showers so
included VCSH after 14z at AGS/DNL. Lower confidence in
restrictions further northeast at CAE/CUB/OGB so held off on any
restrictions until Sunday afternoon after 20z at CAE/CUB and
kept it out of OGB where probs of restrictions are much lower
from SREF and ensembles. Winds will be from the northeast to
east through the period around 4 to 9 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low moisture and wedge
conditions suggest increased chances of restrictions Sunday
night into Monday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The North Fork of the Edisto at Orangeburg has receded into
minor flood and should continue slowly receding into Sunday.
Water flowing south from the river into the South Fork is also
producing extensive flooding especially near Branchville and
areas downstream. The river at Branchville is anticipated to
crest this evening before gradually receding. Slowly improving
conditions are then expected over the next couple of days with
any additional rainfall being minimal.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$