382
FXUS62 KCAE 221854
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
154 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Black ice likely this evening into tonight. Very cold
temperatures will continue through Friday, before a slow and
steady warm up begins and lasts into early next week. The next
chance of precipitation comes late Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Cold Weather Advisory Beginning at 10PM tonight for areas
  along and south of I-20.
- Black ice developing tonight.

High pressure remains centered just to the north of the area
with much drier air in place leading to clear skies. The
increased sun has led to increasing temperatures, although the
air mass remains anomalously cold with most locations near
freezing even into the early afternoon. Sunlight is helping to
melt a lot of the snow pack, except in shaded spots. Tonight,
any lingering moisture on the roads will quickly refreeze as
temperatures plummet with strong radiational cooling expected
overnight. Black ice will be a concern and while the roads will
not likely be as icy as this morning, patches of ice at times
will be difficult to impossible to see for motorists and lead to
hazardous travel. With the significant cold overnight, a Cold
Weather Advisory is in place for areas along and south of I-20
as temperatures are expected to dip below 15F with the coldest
temperatures where the deepest snow pack remains, in the far
southeastern portion of the forecast area. Potential for slight
warming late tonight into early Thursday morning, although still
well below freezing, as some mid and high clouds move into the
area, but hires guidance does show the clouds relatively thin so
probably will not interfere too much with radiational cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Well below average temperatures continue into the late week
  period, followed by a gradual warming trend this weekend.

Dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected to
continue through the short term. A series of shortwaves will
reinforce the large scale troughing across the eastern CONUS,
with zonal flow developing this weekend. High pressure will be
in control of our weather, so generally light and variable
winds and very low precipitation (less than 10 percent) chances
are anticipated. As mentioned, well below normal temperatures
continue into Thursday with slightly warmer conditions during
the daytime hours on Friday. Temperatures at night will remain
very cold but not to Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Having said
that, Friday Night will likely be the coldest night of the
period due to the possibility of idealized radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Temperatures continue to moderate through the extended with
  near normal values possible by mid-week.

- The next chance of precipitation arrives late Sunday night
  into Monday.

Zonal flow at the start of the period will be replaced by the
passage of a quick moving shortwave on Monday, followed by upper
ridging towards mid-week. This will result in a continued
warming trend, especially near the end of the extended as the
aforementioned ridge builds in. A weak surface system develops
over the Southern Great Plains on Sunday moving east towards the
region on Monday. There are still issues in the guidance
regarding how the system is handled and how quickly it reaches
our forecast area. While some precipitation could be moving in
towards daybreak Monday, it is too early to confidently say
whether there will be any frozen precipitation mixed in.
Looking at modeled soundings, it appears there will be a large
warm nose indicating that should precipitation move over
subfreezing surface temperatures, it will likely not be snow.
Dry weather returns Tuesday with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR Conditions with northeast winds.

Drier air is in place at the terminals with clear skies. Winds
out of the northeast, becoming light and variable tonight.
Expect some increasing high clouds late tonight, remaining VFR.
Winds likely remain light into the day on Thursday.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through
Sunday. Increasing chances for rain and associated restrictions
Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for SCZ027>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for GAZ063>065-077.

&&

$$