325
FXUS62 KCAE 070820
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
320 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainfall remains through today before pushing off to the south
and east this evening. Moisture may linger over the region through
the long term with at least a slight chance of rain on several
days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Flash Flooding is ongoing and will continue to be possible,
  mainly south of I-20, mainly through this morning.
- Heaviest rain expected to shift into the Lowcountry by this
  afternoon.

Strong moisture convergence continues south of I-20 with
a tight theta-e gradient in place along a line from Barnwell
county through lower Richland/western Sumter counties. This has
led to training cells over this area with MRMS estimating
maximum of around a foot of rain in what is shaping up to be a
incredibly anomalous event, especially for the month of November
which is typically one of our drier months. Ongoing flash
flooding at this time as widespread heavy rainfall continues
south of I-20. Water vapor observations early this morning do
indicate that some drier air is pushing into central Georgia
aloft and as the robust shortwave that is pivoting through the
area shifts to the east, slowly we will also see the heaviest
rain likely shift into the Lowcountry. Obviously with the amount
of rain already received, however, any additional rainfall
really just furthers the flash flooding threat. While rain rates
have decreased since earlier this evening with the rain becoming
less convective with a loss of daytime heating, noted by a lack
of lightning, there still remains pockets of rainfall of 1-2
inches per hour. Even with the heaviest rain tapering off by
sunrise, there will still likely be substantial flooding of
roads in the area previously mentioned. Do not drive around any
barricades and heed all road closures.

HiRes guidance continues to favor weakening rain rates over the
next several hours but there will be chances for scattered
showers redeveloping today with plentiful moisture, however,
PWATs will decrease as the moisture flux shifts southeast of the
area. Will have to continue to monitor for flooding concerns
with the substantial rainfall received overnight. Low clouds
linger through the day which will likely keep the area stable to
prevent widespread thunderstorm development, although an
isolated storm remains possible. High temperatures in the low to
mid 70s. Temperatures remain warm overnight with lows in the mid
60s with continued low clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers remain possible.

A weak surface cold front will be situated across the forecast
area through much of the short term period. There will still be
enough moisture along this front to keep isolated to scattered
showers in the area, especially over the eastern cwa and into
the coastal plain. Any rain chances diminish by Friday evening,
with a dry forecast then expected through the night. Temperatures
will still be above normal through Friday with highs in the 80s.
Cooler air then begins to push in from the north Friday night,
bringing overnight lows back into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Low chances of rain for much of the long term

Front moves south Saturday, bringing cooler and slightly drier
air in for Saturday. Highs range from the upper 60s north to
the middle 70s. Sunday will see some moisture return ahead of
a weak trough, bringing a brief period of isolated rain again.
To start off the work week, drier conditions are expected to
prevail through mid-week. Above normal temperatures continue to
be favored in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Restrictions Likely at all Terminals through the TAF Period....

Widespread restrictions in place, although they have been
bouncing around early this morning. Widespread IFR ceilings with
continued visibility restrictions in showers through this
morning. While widespread rain will likely taper off this
morning into the afternoon, low clouds will linger with models
continuing to favor IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through
the day. While there may be a brief break in IFR conditions,
have continued them through the end of the TAF as there is
relatively high confidence in IFR ceilings and visibilities
tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low moisture will lead to
the potential for early morning restrictions into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ018-025-030-035-041-
     135>137.
GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$