762
FXUS62 KCAE 150916
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
416 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds slowly clear overnight. Seasonable temperatures and dry
conditions expected Friday into the weekend with a warming trend
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Low stratus will burn off quickly Friday morning, sunny and
  cool the rest of the day.

High pressure shifting into the Ohio Valley will continue the
northwest flow over the area throughout Friday. Dry air will
steadily mix down to the surface and erode the remaining wedge
inversion and associated stratus early this morning. PWAT`s
will fall below 0.5" by the early afternoon and sunny skies will
warm temps in the mid-upper 60`s. Winds will be fairly gusty
this afternoon as deep dry air and downsloping flow mixes up
through 850mb. The high pressure center will move near enough to
allow for moderate radiational cooling tonight, and low temps
should fall into the low 40`s across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures

High confidence forecast this weekend with surface high
pressure building over the forecast area beneath a building
upper ridge. Ensemble PWAT guidance shows values at or below a
half inch with forecast soundings supporting this and showing
significant dry air throughout the atmospheric column. Skies
should be mostly sunny on Saturday with high temperatures near
normal in the mid to upper 60s. Strong radiational cooling is
expected Saturday night under favorable conditions with clear
skies and light to near calm winds with lows expected in the
upper 30s to lower 40s. Little change expected on Sunday with
the center of the high overhead and upper ridge axis shifting
over the region. High temperatures may be slightly warmer in the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees under mostly sunny skies. The
modified air mass will yield slightly warmer overnight lows
Sunday night in the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Gradual warming trend early next week with above normal
temperatures
- More uncertainty by the middle of next week with tropical
  moisture moving northward into the region with increased
  chances of rain

Ensemble guidance continues to be in strong agreement with the
evolution of the 500mb pattern early next week showing an upper
level ridge over the southeastern states into the Ohio Valley
while an upper trough moves into the central part of the
country. The upper ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area
on Tuesday with southwesterly flow developing as surface high
pressure shifts offshore. This will allow tropical moisture,
possibly associated with TC Sara, to return to the area with
both GEFS and ENS PWAT means rising to around 200 percent of
normal by Tuesday evening leading to increasing chances of rain
mid week. A closed upper low will move into the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday shifting to the Mid- Atlantic on Thursday and pushing
a cold front toward the area.

Temperatures trend above normal Tue/Wed before cooling back near
normal on Thursday with increased cloud cover and possible rain.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low cig restrictions expected through early morning.

IFR and MVFR cigs expected through early morning as a deck of
stratus lingers over the area. Despite significant dry air
aloft, this stratus will be slow to scour out overnight despite
downsloping northwest flow. Nighttime IR satellite shows a few
breaks in this deck but only enough for a tempo to MVFR from
09-13z. This deck will quickly lift shortly after sunrise for
all TAF sites, so VFR expected from roughly 13z onward. Winds
will continue from the northwest throughout Friday with
sustained 6-8 knots and gusts to 15 knots.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in restriction
Tuesday as tropical moisture returns to the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$