204
FXUS62 KCAE 130005
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
805 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather conditions are expected to continue this
evening across the eastern half of the forecast area due to an
area of low pressure located near Wilmington, North Carolina.
Gradual improvement from west to east is expected tonight into
Monday as the low moves away from the region and high pressure
brings in drier air. High pressure is expected to prevail
through the upcoming work week, with dry weather and
temperatures within a few degrees of normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Key message(s):

- Moderate to locally heavy rainfall continues this evening
  across the Eastern Midlands with scattered showers elsewhere.

- Rain tapers off tonight with improving conditions from west to
  east.

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
center of the coastal storm is located just east of Wilmington,
North Carolina this evening. The combination of a low-level jet
and moisture convergence west of the center has produced a
swath of moderate to heavy rainfall, with a few embedded
thunderstorms across northeastern South Carolina. While impacts
from the rain in the FA have been limited thus far, localized
flash flooding remains possible especially in urban areas such
as Sumter. Latest guidance is adamant about a quick west to east
improvement tonight but given the slow movement of the surface
low, have opted to do a more gradual reduction in PoPs tonight
to account for this. The forecast calls for rain to end by
daybreak across the entire CWA, with decreasing cloudiness from
west to east. Temperatures were tricky today as locations in
the west saw some sunshine and therefore warmer temperatures.
These locations should be the coolest tonight due to radiational
cooling with lows in the mid to upper 50s while it`ll be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Drying out with sunshine returning and warmer temperatures.

The coupled upper trough and coastal low will continue to pull
away from the region early Monday, bringing drier air back in
the region. An upper ridge is progged to build across the
central CONUS, slowly working eastward with surface high
pressure starting to build in to the FA behind the coastal low.
This should bring a pleasant day with mostly clear skies
(outside of some morning cloudiness in the eastern Midlands and
Pee Dee) and temperatures that warm to near average in the mid
to upper 70s. Tuesday will see much of the same as the upper
ridge inches a bit closer. Another afternoon with seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions is expected. Overnight each
night, lows are expected to fall into the mid 50s, possibly into
the low 50s as strong radiational cooling conditions set up.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather through the mid to
  late week.

Wednesday through Friday continues with dry weather as the
upper ridge in the central CONUS pushes overhead due to a
amplified trough moving into the western US. A dry front is
expected to pass sometime late Wednesday, ushering in a shot of
even drier air for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon high
temperatures should remain near normal to just below normal each
day but overnight lows Thursday could be some of the coolest we
have seen yet this fall as there is little indication for a
hindrance to strong radiational cooling conditions, coupled with
a cooler/drier air mass setting in behind the front. The
weekend will see a more amplified pattern aloft as the deep
trough digs into the Midwest/Great Lakes region, allowing
moisture to slowly increase in the FA as flow becomes more
southerly. Discrepancy exists between deterministic global
models on how amplified the trough will be and the exact
placement of an upper low and thus while there is a chance PoP`s
increase toward the end of the weekend, confidence in this is
low at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Improving conditions early Monday morning followed by VFR
conditions.

Lingering rain over the region will continue to cause periods of
MVFR visibilities at CAE/CUB and OGB through the evening. The
coastal low will lift out of the forecast area tonight. Despite
rainfall moving out of the region, there may be ceiling
restrictions or fog early Monday morning with lingering moisture
at the low levels.

Winds will generally remain out of the N/NE through the 24 hour
period from 4 to 9 kts. VFR conditions are likely through Monday
as skies clear and drier after filters into the region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR likely through the rest of the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$