Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
715 FXUS62 KCAE 060824 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 424 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure is in control of the weather this weekend with temperatures near or slightly above seasonable values. A cold front moves through Monday night, ushering in a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton is expected to pass south and east of the forecast area with breezy conditions possible Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: - Patchy fog developing tonight which may become dense near sunrise. Drier air is filtering back into the area from the north, evident by water vapor satellite imagery. High clouds continue to pass over south of I-20 with some low clouds and patchy fog developing across the north where skies are clear. Clouds decreasing into the afternoon with this dry air continuing to march through the area. This will lead to a pleasant Sunday, although with highs a couple degrees above seasonal average, in the low to mid-80s. As skies clear into tonight, favorable radiational cooling setup will lead to lows dropping into the low 60s. Fog remains possible late tonight into early Monday morning with lingering low level moisture. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: - There is a slight chance of a shower Monday east of the I-20 corridor - Cold front passage Monday night will usher in a cooler airmass for Tuesday. An upper level trough will dig through the Great Lakes region and into New England early in the week. High pressure will be building across the Midwest into the Ohio valley. This will keep mild conditions across the region, with daytime temperatures in the low to mid 80s on Monday. A cold front is expected to sink across the state late in the afternoon or evening. Moisture is very limited with the front, and while most locations will remain rain-free, a few CAMs do generate some light showers mainly east of I-20. There may also be a very subtle wind shift, but the airmass change will become more apparent on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Dewpoints will fall into the 50s and PW values will be between 1" and 1.25". Overnight lows Monday in the upper 50s north to low 60s south, and cooler Tuesday night, low 50s north to upper 50s south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: - Below normal temperatures from Wednesday into the weekend - Breezy winds possible Thursday as Milton moves south of the area. The upper trough remains quasistationary over the Northeast through midweek with high pressure to the north dominating our weather. Tropical Storm Milton is progged to strengthen into a Hurricane in the coming days as it moves east-northeast toward the west coast of Florida by Wednesday. Model consensus is favorable that the storm will remain south of our area, but there is a low chance we will have some breezy winds develop on Thursday. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to continue as PWATs fall below 0.75" Wednesday and closer to 0.5" by Friday. Temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s for the remainder of the work week. We`ll also see a nice downward trend in overnight lows, with values slowly cooling a couple degrees each night through Saturday morning, when northern counties may see some upper 40s. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected through much of the period but some restrictions possible Sunday morning. High clouds passing over all the terminals early this morning should help to cut down on the fog potential. Guidance has been favoring restrictions developing in North Carolina and shifting south over the terminals. The restrictions that have developed, however, are patchy so think that when they make their way towards the terminals they will likely be temporary. Guidance also trended away from IFR so have just kept the mention of TEMPO MVFR cigs at CAE/CUB and IFR at OGB. Some lingering MVFR clouds possible after sunrise through mid-morning becoming VFR through the afternoon. Winds light and variable becoming ENE around 5 knots late this morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation expected through Thursday, although brief early morning fog or stratus will be possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$