967
FXUS62 KCAE 080213
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
913 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect well above normal temperatures through the weekend with
isolated showers and near record highs on possible on Sunday. A
series of weak disturbances and weak fronts will promote cooler
and cloudier conditions with a chance of showers through much
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers this evening and overnight.

Zonal flow aloft persists tonight as surface high pressure to our
north shifts east. Northerly flow across the Pee Dee and northern
Midlands will develop and enhance convergence along a stalled
surface boundary. As a result, some showers continue to roll east
along the SC/NC border, as well as a few showers in the CSRA. Plenty
of shear available, but overall forcing is week and dry air
entrainment seems to be keeping anything too strong from developing.
Will continue some low end chance PoPs through the night for much of
the area, decreasing to slight chances toward daybreak Saturday.
Some patchy dense fog is possible mainly in the CSRA around sunrise
Saturday morning, especially in areas that see some rainfall.
Overnight lows will be mild again, though cooler than last night,
from around 50 north to around 60 in the southern Midlands and CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Mostly cloudy and slightly cooler on Saturday.

- More sunshine on Sunday with near record temperatures possible.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Day starts off with a weakened
frontal boundary stalled across the central portions of the
forecast area. Weak shortwave energy moving over the boundary
could produce a few light showers early in the day before giving
way to drier conditions through the afternoon and overnight
hours Saturday night. Do expect a fairly large temperature
spread in regards to afternoon high temperatures due to the
location of the front. Areas over the southern Midlands and into
the CSRA will remain in the warm sector, with more sunshine
through the day expected. This will bring temperatures close to
record highs across the Augusta region. Across the central
Midlands around Columbia, the front will lift northward through
the day, and eventually that area will also get into the warm
sector, with highs in the mid 70s, also close to record highs
for the day. The northern Midlands and Pee Dee have the greatest
uncertainly through the day for temperatures, all depending on
how fast the cold air retreats and can get replaced by warmer
conditions. Do expect more cloud cover there through the day,
which will keep cooler conditions for much of the early
afternoon. It appears as if the front may be able to lift north
of the forecast area late in the day, allowing a period in which
temperatures will be able to get into the mid to upper 60s,
although much of the day could feel colder until then. For the
overnight hours, dry weather expected as skies will be mostly
clear and winds remain up and out of the southwest. Good mixing
will inhibit fog and radiational cooling. Temperatures fall into
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday and Sunday Night: A rather mild day will be on tap as the
region will be solidly in the warm sector ahead of an approaching
cold front. Breezy southwest winds should allow temperatures to
climb to near record values for one more day across the entire
forecast area. The cold front should not move in until later in
the afternoon, with the colder air not starting to really push
in until the overnight hours Sunday night. Can not rule out
isolated to scattered showers along the front though.
Temperatures overnight in the lower 40s possible over the north,
with the middle 50s in the CSRA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- An unsettled and uncertain forecast during the extended period.

Colder air settles into the region early in the week behind the
cold front. Monday and Tuesday are the two days with higher
confidence in temperatures, with the blended ranges much smaller
that days later in the forecast period. It will be chilly both
days, especially over the northern half of the forecast area.
Highs may only be in the lower 50s Monday, then the mid to upper
40s on Tuesday with clouds and light rain possible there. Slight
warmer in the southern cwa as temperatures south of the cold
front will be in the mid to upper 60s. Rain remains possible
along the front both days too. The blended spread increases
significantly midweek onward, and temperatures become much more
dependent on whether the surface front can retreat northward
ahead of another advancing cold front. Generally kept with NBM
numbers that far out with the uncertainly. Rain chances remain
each day through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
- VFR conditions expected through Friday evening before showers
  and lowering vsby-cigs are expected.

Stalled frontal boundary remains across the forecast area this
evening, with widely scattered showers developing along and
south of it. This boundary generally runs along the I-20
corridor, with all sites south of it at this time. Expect the
chances of showers to continue for much of the night as this
boundary begins to slowly sag southward and provides some
additional lift. Generally, though, the chances of these should
remain in the Prob30 category. As the night goes on, guidance
suggests that MVFR ceilings are likely to develop at all TAF
sites at some point. AGS/DNL/OGB may see IFR cigs at times as
low-level moisture is expected to be more copious through the
night. North of the boundary, at CAE/CUB, low-level dry air is
likely to filter in and maintain only MVFR cigs. HREF
probabilities suggest that it could be until late morning or
early afternoon before ceilings lift as the surface front again
lifts to our north and southwesterly winds help to clear out
clouds and warm us up. So have restrictions generally lasting
until the 18z timeframe, give or take an hour or two, at all
sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There will be multiple fronts which
work into the region in the extended continuing to support rain
chances and potential restrictions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Highs for Feb 8
CAE: 77 in 2019
AGS: 81 in 1957

Record Highs for Feb 9
CAE: 81 in 1994
AGS: 81 in 1957

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$