730
FXUS62 KCAE 161715
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
115 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing dry cold front has moved through the area,
bringing slightly cooler temperatures into Friday. Another front
is forecast to approach late in the weekend, bringing the next
chance for rainfall along with it.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- A cool, dry air mass settles into the region

Surface high pressure will move into the Mid Atlantic States
through the near term and settle over the Carolinas.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than the previous day
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Expect clear skies today and
for much of the night, with just a few high clouds advecting
into the western FA around daybreak Friday. These thin, high
clouds could inhibit radiational cooling in the CSRA and western
Midlands, but elsewhere there will be near-ideal radiational
cooling conditions. Especially near the NC border closer to the
surface high where winds will likely be less than 10 kts through
the lowest 3 or 4 km. Temperatures will drop rapidly as the
high moves overhead tonight and, although already lowered from
NBM, forecast lows may still be too warm. Currently lows are
forecast in the low 40s near the NC/SC border and in the mid to
upper 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Continued cool and dry weather on Friday.

- Another chilly overnight Friday night.

- More dry weather, but with warmer temperatures Saturday.

Friday and Friday Night: Friday continues to look like a cooler
day as high pressure begins to center overhead with northeast
flow that eventually becomes light and variable through the day.
Temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny
skies during the afternoon before some cirrus may pass during
the evening and overnight as moisture aloft increase. These
cirrus are not expected to limit radiational cooling conditions
much overnight and with near ideal conditions in place again,
chilly lows into the mid to upper 40s will be possible.

Saturday and Saturday Night: A shortwave ridge moves overhead
Saturday with surface high pressure weakly hanging on as a deep
trough digs into the central CONUS, turning flow out of the
south to southwest and slowly increasing moisture. This warm
flow along with strong insolation should allow temperatures to
reach the upper 70s to near 80 during the afternoon with dry
conditions. Dry conditions continue overnight and into Sunday,
but moisture continues to slowly increase ahead of a surface
cold front that will be working eastward through the Tennessee
Valley overnight and into Sunday. With increasing moisture,
overnight lows should be a bit warmer, in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Cold front approaches Sunday, moving out of the area by
  Sunday night.

- This front is expected to bring the next chance of rain as it
  moves through.

- Mostly dry through the mid week.

The surface cold front is expected to be west of the FA to
start Sunday, before moving into the area sometime between the
late morning and the early evening. Timing differences in the
recent deterministic models continue with the ECMWF being the
faster solution for the frontal passage (late morning into early
afternoon) and the GFS/NAM being a bit later (late afternoon to
early evening). Also, the ECMWF, its ensemble, and the ECMWF AI
depict a more amplified upper trough reaching near the FA while
the GFS/GEFS/NAM have a more compact trough that keeps stronger
dynamics to our north. Overall, there is enough of a signal to
maintain slight chance to chance PoP`s Sunday, but uncertainty
remains in the evolution of the aforementioned features and thus
coverage/intensity of any showers or storms. The ECMWF solution
would favor greater coverage of showers and possibly some
storms while the GFS solution trends towards lower coverage of
showers and a lesser chance for any thunderstorms. One area of
higher confidence is that the front will clear the region by
Sunday night with drier air filtering in behind it as surface
high pressure fills in.

The early week sees surface high pressure work back in with a
dry airmass and temperatures that are initially slightly below
normal Monday and then closer to normal Tuesday. Another compact
trough looks to move into the Great Lakes region late Tuesday
and into Wednesday morning, possibly driving another cold front
into the region overnight, but mostly dry conditions seem more
likely than not at this point in time. Cool/dry air then settles
back in Wednesday with high temperatures expected to be just
below normal, but overnight lows may once again be a bit chilly.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions expected.

A drier air mass will settle into the forecast area through the
next 24 hrs leading to light winds and low chances for fog
tonight. Winds today will generally be out of the NE around 5
to 10 kts, but should weaken through the day as the surface high
nears.

Tonight, most sites will remain calm after 00Z. With
even drier air in place than the previous night, most sites will
not experience fog. That said, calm winds and clear skies may
allow shallow fog to form along river valleys. AGS could see
brief and periodic reductions in visibility if this occurs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread
restrictions will be Sunday morning ahead of a front which will
move across the Southeast.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$