093
FXUS62 KCAE 050024
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
724 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures moderate tonight as high pressure moves southeast.
Breezy conditions and near normal temperatures expected
Thursday ahead of a dry cold front. The cold front will move
through the area late Thursday afternoon and another cold and
dry air mass will settle over the area Friday. Dry weather and
moderating temperatures expected over the weekend. Forecast
confidence is increasing in a change to a warmer and more active
weather pattern early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Breezy conditions developing later today and tonight,
  especially on area lakes.
- Modest moderation in temperatures.

Strong low pressure system across southeastern Canada will
continue to propagate eastward, pushing a strong cold front
southeastward as it does so. High pressure is quickly pushing
eastward as a result, and this cold front will approach in the
next 12 or so hours. The biggest impact from this is expected to
be an uptick in winds. While most of us will only see peak gusts
in the 15-20 mph range ahead of the front because of timing, the
lakes are still quite warm and much warmer than the airmass
around them. This is a favorable setup for strong lake winds,
and with an 850 hPa jet approaching 50 knots or more, look for
gusts to increase across area lakes near or after 06z tonight.
The coolest temps are expected to occur in the next few hours as
near ideal radiational cooling allows for temps to fall into the
upper 30s for a few hours most places. Look for temps to then
gradually rise after 06z as the front approaches and
southwesterly winds increase in strength. No precipitation is
expected tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Breezy Thursday with near normal temperatures during the day.
- Below normal temperatures return Thursday night through Friday
night with another polar air mass over the region

An upper trough will move into New England on Thursday pushing
another strong cold front through the forecast area during the
late afternoon hours. Ahead of the front, gusty southwesterly
winds will gradually shift to the west through the day and
eventually shift to the north behind the front by 00z. A strong
850mb jet around 50-55 knots through the morning should support
wind gusts over 30 mph with winds gradually diminishing late
afternoon behind the front with sunset. A Lake Wind Advisory
will continue to be in effect through the day Thursday.

A cold and dry air mass will build into the region once again
Thursday night with cold advection and somewhat favorable
radiational cooling conditions, though the center of the surface
high will remain to the northwest over the Ohio Valley. Surface
high pressure builds over the Carolinas by Friday night with
near ideal radiational cooling conditions as the center of the
high will be much closer, centered over the southern
Appalachians. Expect overnight lows both nights to again fall
into the lower to mid 20s with some possible upper teens in
sheltered outlying locations. Temperatures should be relatively
mild despite some increased cloud cover with the southwesterly
flow ahead of the approaching front with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Much colder again on Friday behind the front with
highs struggling through the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry weather and warming trend over the weekend.
- Increasing chances of rain next week with above normal
temperatures.

A transition in the upper level pattern is expected at the
beginning of the extended forecast period with a more split flow
pattern becoming more phased into a mean trough over the middle
of the country. This should favor a transition from our
unusually cold pattern to a warmer and more active pattern
across the forecast area.

High pressure will be over the area on Saturday with
northwesterly flow aloft providing a bit of a downsloping
component and temperatures should be warmer than on Friday with
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures warm further on
Sunday as surface high pressure shifts offshore allowing for a
southerly flow to develop and upper level ridging builds over
the region in response to upstream troughing with highs expected
in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Deeper southwesterly flow
develops Sunday and Sunday night with atmospheric moisture
increasing across the region.

Chances of rain increase Mon-Tue as global models and ensembles
have come into better agreement with the evolution of the upper
level flow pattern. The cutoff low over the southwestern states
ejects northeastward ahead of the next upper trough digging
across the intermountain west on Monday and ensembles show mean
PWATs rising to 150-200 percent of normal through Tuesday ahead
of an approaching cold front. The better agreement among
ensembles lends to a bit higher confidence in increasing chances
of rain Mon-Wed across the forecast area. Temperatures next
week should rise above normal as the EC EFI is showing a signal
of above normal temps and ESAT tables also show 1000mb temps in
the 90th percentile with highs pushing into the upper 60s to
lower 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions much of the period with Low Level Wind Shear early
Thursday morning.

Mainly high clouds stream over the area tonight, with some lower
level clouds mixing in toward daybreak due a slight increase in
moisture. It is possible for a brief few hours of MVFR CIGS
after 12z at AGS/DNL, but confidence too low to mention in the
TAFs right now. Otherwise, winds aloft will increase
significantly tonight, leading to SWLY surface winds around 10
knots and winds at 2kft MSL around 45 knots, potentially
generating some low level wind shear at all terminals. These
winds aloft will mix out around daybreak tomorrow, with surface
speeds increasing to 12-17 kts and gusts around 20-25 knots.
Winds gradually become westerly then northwesterly though the
day. With a front passing through in the afternoon, windspeeds
relax in the late afternoon or early evening with clearing
skies.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Strong gusty winds possible
Thursday, otherwise no significant impacts to aviation
expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for SCZ016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$