460
FXUS62 KCAE 010121
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
921 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front currently moving through the region this evening
is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions to
start off the work week, but building high pressure will allow
the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid to late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Line of strong thunderstorms exits the forecast area. Chance
  of lingering showers for the remainder of the evening.
- Areas of low clouds and/or patchy fog likely towards
  daybreak.

A line of strong thunderstorms continues to move through the
southern Midlands and Burke County, Georgia this evening. These
thunderstorms remain capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty
winds, and heavy rainfall as they exit our forecast area. Additional
showers and thunderstorms in the Upstate will move into our CWA
from the north and west but guidance suggests that they will
continue to weaken as they move through the region. Guidance
suggests the development of low clouds and/or patchy fog across
the FA towards daybreak, especially in locations that saw heavy
rainfall today. It`ll be muggy with temperatures falling into
the mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGE(S):
- A brief respite from the heat and humidity.

Monday and Monday night...Upper trough centered over the
northeast CONUS will shift off the coast by evening. The strong
upper ridge over the southern Plains will begin to build back
east. At the surface, the frontal boundary will be near the
southeast Midlands in the morning then shift slowly to the
south as dry air spreads south from North Carolina. Near the
front, precipitable water is expected to be at or above 2
inches. Precipitable water will be much lower across the
northern Midlands...in the 1.0-1.5 inch range by afternoon. CAM
models suggest scattered showers will develop in the moderately
unstable air mass near the front by mid morning and slowly shift
south and east during the afternoon. Focus for more widespread
convection should be in the coastal plain near the sea breeze
and frontal convergence by later in the afternoon. Area in
general cold advection so, max temperatures should be
significantly cooler than previous days...in the 85 to 90 degree
range with lingering cloudiness into into the afternoon and
cooler at night with lows into the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...The latest GFS/ECMWF suggest the
front will move a little further to southeast with moisture
mainly confined to the coastal plain. Lowered the pops a bit
especially across the central and northern Midlands where based
on the grand ensemble guidance and deterministic models, the
precipitable water is likely to be less than 1.5 inches. Weak
easterly/north-easterly flow supports cooler temps, mid to upper
80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
-Heat and humidity return as high pressure aloft rebuilds.

Ensembles indicate the anomalously strong upper ridge...up to
about 2 standard deviations above normal...over the Midwest
will build east over the area during the mid to late week
period. This will result in well above normal temperatures,
NBM max temperature guidance is around 100 degrees each day into
next weekend. The probabilistic guidance shows 50% or higher
chance of max temperatures in excess of 100F both Friday and
Saturday with increasing moisture. Isolated diurnal convection
should develop primarily near the remnants of a frontal boundary
on Wednesday and then primarily near the sea breeze front
Independence Day through Saturday. The ridge appears to weaken
by next weekend as another front approaches the area, so
scattered showers/thunderstorms expected as moisture increases,
especially by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some early restrictions in thunderstorms then VFR conditions
expected later this evening before additional restrictions in
early morning fog/stratus expected.

Convection continues to shift southeast through the Midlands
and will impact DNL/AGS/OGB through 02z or so with LIFR/IFR
vsbys in thunderstorms.

Storm activity should wane after 02z across the area and
expect stratus to develop for all TAF sites late tonight into
Monday morning; although confidence is limited on whether
LIFR/IFR conditions will occur. The rain at all terminals today
increases confidence in restrictions later tonight. Winds should
be generally light and variable after 03z through sunrise then
pick up from the northeast around 5 knots behind a weak front
that crosses the region late tonight. Winds should pick up to
around 7 to 10 knots Monday afternoon with some higher gusts
possible. Afternoon storms expected again in the Coastal Plain
and into the eastern Midlands.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Additional stratus and afternoon
shower-storms likely Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
KEY MESSAGE(S):
-Increased Fire Danger mid to late week.
-Rainfall probabilities remain relatively low mid week.

Increased fire danger during the Independence Day Holiday week,
especially late week as temperatures rise again to well above
normal values and precipitation chances remains relatively low.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$