914
FXUS62 KCAE 260017
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
817 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible
tonight. Additional convection is possible on Saturday ahead of
a cold front, especially across the eastern Midlands. Drier and
somewhat cooler air will spread over the area behind the front
late in the weekend, with continued dry conditions and warming
temperatures then expected through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing chances of rain tonight with an approaching upper
  trough.

An upper trough will continue to approach the FA from the west
tonight. A large swath of showers and thunderstorms developed
ahead of this feature and is currently moving into Georgia. The
line should continue to move north and east tonight, bringing
an increasing risk for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two to the CWA. The loss of daytime heating should result in
decreasing convective trends as the line approaches, so severe
weather is not a concern. The best chance for accumulating
precipitation will be across our northern and western counties
which have the highest PoPs with this forecast update. Clouds
and rain limit cooling tonight with forecast lows in the lower
60s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Some scattered showers and storms likely ahead of a front that
  pushes through Saturday evening.

A weak shortwave trough at mid-levels will work through the
region early Saturday, allowing ridging to steadily build in
throughout the afternoon and evening. The associated surface
front will hang back west of the area, pushing through later
Saturday evening and allowing some scattered showers-storms to
develop in the afternoon. But the surface and upper level
forcing will be quite out of sync throughout peak heating hours
Saturday. This will yield an environment with moderate
subsidence at mid-levels, but still notable low level moisture
and corresponding instability; HREF progs 1000-1500 ML CAPE in
the afternoon. But with downsloping northwest flow, little low
level forcing, and the aforementioned ridging-rising heights
aloft, convective coverage will remain limited Saturday (PoP`s
20-30%). But, any cells that do develop will have a greater than
typical chance to produce strong-damaging wind gusts given the
environment and the propensity for unidirectional-northwesterly
shear thunderstorms to mix remarkably efficiently around here.

Following the front late Saturday, cooler and drier temps are
expected for Sunday as low level flow turns out of the north-
northeast. However, it does look a fairly substantial temp and
moisture gradient will set up along with northeast flow with the
CSRA keeping high temps in the low-mid 80`s with near 60 F dew
points, and the Pee Dee having highs in the mid 70`s and dews in
the 40`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Steady warm up expected Monday onward with well above average
  temps by mid-week.

A deep mid-upper level ridge will steadily build into the area
throughout next week, with temps climbing each day and a broad
surface high remains near stationary to our east. EC EFI and
NAEFS clearly highlight the middle of next week for anomalous
warmth with temps in the 90th percentile or higher for much of
the Southeast. So it does not look like any sort of record
breaking stretch, but definitely a snap shot of summer. Given
the generalized subsidence under the mid-upper level ridge and
the nearby surface high, rain chances will be low for our area
next week, despite surface dew points climbing back into the
60`s. So some isolated showers-storms are the only precip of
note for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Other than a period of mvfr conditions towards Saturday morning,
expecting mostly vfr conditions.

A few cumulus with addition thin cirrus this evening ahead of an
approaching system moving in from the west. Period starts off
dry, but as we approach midnight rain chances should increase as
a batch of showers and thunderstorms associated with an
approaching upper trough and cold front move across the region.
Coverage may remain scattered, with guidance showing decreasing
coverage an intensity as it approaches any taf sites overnight.
Due to this, will only go with vcsh after midnight at
cae/cub/ogb. Less confident at ags/dnl so will keep mention of
any rainfall out of those locations. Towards morning, guidance
also still shows the potential for another round of fog/stratus
across the Midlands sites, so continued with mention of MVFR
cig group with tempo to lower cig and MVFR vsbys 10-14z at
cae/cub/ogb, while elsewhere just a tempo group for possible
MVFR cig/vsby. Vfr returns at all sites late Saturday morning.
Winds southerly tonight, then turning more westerly through the
day Saturday behind the cold front.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions will generally prevail.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$