551
FXUS62 KCAE 121718
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
118 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure off the North Carolina coast continues to move
northward into tonight, providing cloudy, damp, and cool
conditions this afternoon for most. The low is forecast to
gradually move away by Monday, with high pressure bringing in
drier air. High pressure is expected to prevail through the
week, with dry weather and temperatures within a few degrees of
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Mainly cloudy conditions this afternoon into tonight.
- Rainfall over the eastern forecast area becomes more scattered
  this afternoon and evening, before moving out of the area
  tonight.

The coastal low that is bringing rain to the area is now
located off the southern North Carolina coast while an upper low
is centered over the South Carolina coast. Rainfall continues
to rotate around these features this afternoon, with some signs
of dissipating some and becoming more scattered on radar. A few
breaks in the clouds are being seen on satellite in the far
western portions of the forecast area, where temps have been
able to warm to around 70. Where the clouds have persisted,
temps remain in the low to mid 60s and probably won`t warm much
more than that.

The low is forecast to move along the Outer Banks through the
near term. As a result, the rainfall is expected to continue
diminishing and becoming more widely scattered as we head into
tonight. The rain is expected to exit the area from southwest to
northeast as the low moves away. An additional 0.25" to
potentially 0.5" is possible in the far eastern Midlands, but it
should the rates should remain light enough to avoid any
flooding issues. After the rain moves out, cloud cover should
deteriorate as well, allowing for temps to drop into the mid to
upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):

- Drying out with sunshine returning and warmer temperatures.

The coupled upper trough and coastal low will continue to pull
away from the region early Monday, bringing drier air back in
the region. An upper ridge is progged to build across the
central CONUS, slowly working eastward with surface high
pressure starting to build in to the FA behind the coastal low.
This should bring a pleasant day with mostly clear skies
(outside of some morning cloudiness in the eastern Midlands and
Pee Dee) and temperatures that warm to near average in the mid
to upper 70s. Tuesday will see much of the same as the upper
ridge inches a bit closer. Another afternoon with seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions is expected. Overnight each
night, lows are expected to fall into the mid 50s, possibly into
the low 50s as strong radiational cooling conditions set up.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather through the mid to
  late week.

Wednesday through Friday continues with dry weather as the
upper ridge in the central CONUS pushes overhead due to a
amplified trough moving into the western US. A dry front is
expected to pass sometime late Wednesday, ushering in a shot of
even drier air for Thursday and Friday. Afternoon high
temperatures should remain near normal to just below normal each
day but overnight lows Thursday could be some of the coolest we
have seen yet this fall as there is little indication for a
hindrance to strong radiational cooling conditions, coupled with
a cooler/drier air mass setting in behind the front. The
weekend will see a more amplified pattern aloft as the deep
trough digs into the Midwest/Great Lakes region, allowing
moisture to slowly increase in the FA as flow becomes more
southerly. Discrepancy exists between deterministic global
models on how amplified the trough will be and the exact
placement of an upper low and thus while there is a chance PoP`s
increase toward the end of the weekend, confidence in this is
low at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Varying cigs and vis into tonight, then VFR conditions persist
in the second half of the TAF period.

Rain to become more scattered through about 00z, then moving
out of the area tonight. Ceilings and visibilities are likely to
bounce around for a while, mainly between MVFR and VFR, while
the shower activity continues. Brief periods of IFR vis can`t be
ruled out at OGB, however. MVFR cigs may hang around some after
the rain, but suspect mainly VFR conditions will prevail and
continue through the rest of the TAF period. Northwest winds
around 8-10 kts are expected to continue, with gusts at OGB
nearing 20 kts, through about 00z before shifting to more
northerly.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR likely through the rest of the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$