680
FXUS62 KCAE 101727
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
127 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
early part of the week ahead before returning to normal later
in the week. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected the remainder of today and
Monday as deeper moisture returns to the Southeast. Then, a
more typical summertime pattern returns with scattered,
afternoon showers and storms for mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered to widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms
  possible this afternoon and evening.

An inverted trough near the coast continues to slide inland this
afternoon. Looking at observations across the area, the
associated boundary has pushed into the eastern Midlands. Expect
this feature to continue moving further inland, bringing periods
of scattered showers to the area into this evening. That said,
there is a fairly high chance for a break in shower activity
this afternoon after the current initial wave of precipitation.
SPC mesoanalysis indicates mixed layer CAPE values are in the
500-1000 J/kg range. As such, a few thunderstorms are possible
into this evening as well. PWATs of 2" or greater pretty much
cover the entire forecast are now, so the showers could be
efficient rain makers. Will have to monitor for any training of
activity, which could result in isolated flash flooding. It
appears the heaviest rains should fall in the eastern portions
of the forecast area, which is not where the heaviest rains fell
last week. This along with the anticipated break in activity
should help to mitigate some of the flash flood threat. Rain
chances continue through the overnight hours, but they chances
do lower late tonight before increasing again closer to
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Below-normal temperatures continue Monday with scattered to
  numerous showers and possibly some embedded thunder.

- Temperatures warm a bit Tuesday but more scattered to
  numerous showers/storms are expected.

Monday and Monday Night: Some isolated to scattered showers may
be on going to start the day Monday as onshore low level flow
continues to usher in deep moisture, keeping PWAT`s between
2.1-2.3" throughout the day. Into the afternoon, the HREF mean
solution and multiple models suggest a weak shortwave may slide
into SC from the southeast as inverted surface troughing
generally continues to move through the area along a diffuse
frontal boundary near the SC coast. This should bring a similar
afternoon/evening as today with scattered to numerous showers
and cooler temperatures. The main difference between today and
Monday is forecast soundings and HREF members generally depict a
bit more MUCAPE (between 800-1500 J/kg) developing and thus the
chance for some embedded thunder is a bit higher. The higher
potential for some convective activity also brings an elevated
risk for efficient rainfall (with the already favorable moisture
transport and high PWAT`s) and possible localized spots of
flooding where training occurs. This is highlighted well in the
12Z HREF LPMM where it depicts localized spots of 2-3.5" of
rainfall in the eastern Midlands due to the higher potential for
some convection here. Individual members are not as high in
potential totals (outside of the HRW suite) and thus much of the
heavy rain potential will be dependent on convective
development and if this trains over the same area. Some shower
activity is expected to continue into the overnight hours but
this should be fairly light and more isolated to scattered.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: The overall patterns continues to
shift Tuesday as upper ridging and high pressure slowly work
toward the region, bringing slightly warmer temperatures in the
low to mid 80s, though another shortwave is progged to move into
the FA, bringing another afternoon and evening of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms with probabilities for PWAT`s
remaining over 2" greater than 70%, though moisture transport
and overall flow generally weaken some and move a bit more
southwesterly to westerly. Unlike the past couple nights,
confidence in showers lingering much into the overnight is not
very high with weaker forcing in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Warming trend the remainder of the period with more typical
  afternoon shower/storm chances.

Confidence into the extended remains fairly high as mean
ensemble solutions and their deterministic counterparts
generally agree that upper ridging and surface high pressure
build into the region, bringing temperatures that warm and reach
near normal by Thursday or Friday. NAEFS PWAT`s have not
changed much however with PWAT`s near the 90th percentile
expected much of the period, aiding in driving more seasonal
chances for showers and storms during the afternoon and evening
each day into the start of this weekend. The only thing of note
to keep an eye on is both of the most recent deterministic
ECMWF and GFS show the upper riding becoming a bit more
suppressed Friday-Saturday with possible ribbons of shortwave
energy reaching the FA as troughing move into the Great Lakes.
This would possibly bring greater rain chances and slightly
cooler temperatures, but outside of these deterministic runs,
ensemble guidance has not trended toward this solution much so
confidence in this remains toward the low side.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Restrictions likely during much of the next 24 hours.

Light to moderate showers are currently moving through the area
at the time of this writing. Expect periods of showers to
continue into this evening with generally MVFR cigs (brief VFR
or IFR cigs are possible) and periodic vis restrictions. An
isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out, but confidence is too
low to include in any of the TAFs at this time. Shower chances
decrease after about 02z-03z, but latest guidance indicates cigs
are forecast to drop to IFR for several hours beginning around
this time. Some fog, drizzle, or mist is also possible as
abundant moisture is in place. Cigs are then anticipated to
improve late in the period with an uptick in precip chances once
again.

Northeast winds around 10kts with some isolated higher gusts are
expected to shift to more easterly shortly after the TAF period
begins. Winds then generally remain easterly through the TAF
period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deep moisture remains in place early
this week allowing for periods of restrictions and convection
each day. The highest rain chances will be Monday and Tuesday.
Beyond that more typical summertime conditions return.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$